4 ms·

> The statistical community has not been doing well with the coronavirus epidemic. I'm curious how you concluded this. Can you (or anyone) recommend a reasoned

> The statistical community has not been doing well with the coronavirus epidemic. I'm curious how you concluded this. Can you (or anyone) recommend a reasoned evaluation of the existing models? We've got a few months of hindsight now and I'm curious hear what any reputable data scientist might have to say. I see criticism of the models online (in op-eds and social media), but the criticisms are usually agenda driven and opaque on technical details, which isn't particularly helpful.

Animats 6y ago
The actuals from now and the predictions from a few weeks ago aren't aligning quantitatively. The shapes of the curves, though, do make sense. Here's the Financial Times graph of actuals, country by country.[1] No predictions. The pattern that shows up in some of the actuals is "huge spike, tight lockdown, big drop". See Italy, Belgium and the Isle of Man. The Isle of Man puts people in jail for weeks for violating quarantine rules. The US didn't have a huge spike, but isn't seeing a big drop, either. US deaths are at about 2/3 of peak. [1] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=deaths https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&are...