3 ms·

"once a highly infectious agent is loose in the general public lockdowns have extremely limited benefit." Huh? What data supports this? It looks like the top d

"once a highly infectious agent is loose in the general public lockdowns have extremely limited benefit." Huh? What data supports this? It looks like the top dozen or so countries in terms of new cases are almost completely different from a month or two ago. Isn't it obvious this is because the US and western Europe that had the lockdowns slowed it relative to others? Here is a list in descending order of new cases from a day or two ago, see how the US and UK are the only remaining of the first wave. Spain and Italy aren't even there! I don't see how your comment could be more at odds with the information I'm seeing. USA Brazil Russia Peru India UK Chile Pakistan Mexico Iran Saudi Arabia Turkey

gowld 6y ago
That's mostly a list of most populous countries in the world. Is that data per capita?
- throwlaplace 6y ago
  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-cases-per-million?tab=map https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-cases-p... there you go (may 9) df=pd.read_csv("~/Downloads/total-daily-covid-cases-per-million.csv") df.sort_values(['Date', 'Daily new confirmed cases per million (cases)'])[-20:][['Entity', 'Daily new confirmed cases per million (cases)']].to_string(index=False) Out[14]: Entity Daily new confirmed cases per million (cases) Saudi Arabia 48.860 Armenia 48.933 Belgium 50.994 Gabon 52.118 Portugal 54.233 United Arab Emirates 55.913 Gibraltar 59.363 Sweden 63.569 United Kingdom 68.482 Chile 72.765 Russia 73.314 United States 81.440 North America 84.775 Sao Tome and Principe 95.820 Belarus 98.737 Peru 100.722 Singapore 131.274 Bahrain 143.984 Kuwait 150.097 Qatar 455.041
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    That is interesting, but per capita data is not the answer to what I was interested in originally - what countries is the epidemic growing fastest in is different from in what countries is most of the epidemic's growth happening in.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  No, it's based on the actual numbers of new cases. Per capita data tends to have very small countries at the top because they have a larger urban proportion and a larger amount of interaction with foreigners.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  To expand on my other post, since I can't edit it any longer, the fact that it's many of the largest countries with the most cases is a point of note - the first wave wasn't the largest countries so if that's where we're headed, things are changing.
m0llusk 6y ago
There are a number of analysts comparing the effectiveness of attempts to mitigate this pandemic and finding lockdowns to be high cost and risk for low impact as compared to distancing, handwashing, masks, testing, and tracking. One of the most prominent is Isaac Ben-Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-\ https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple... out-after-70-days/ I'm sorry you don't like the actual math, but the reality is that the initial wave of this pandemic has been burning out in all the effected areas in very similar ways regardless of lockdowns or not. Personally I find detailed studies by experienced professionals like Isaac Ben-Israel more compelling than what you present here.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  "I'm sorry you don't like the actual math" How is that a response to widely reported data? What are you disagreeing with? Are you saying my data is incorrect or that I'm interpreting it wrong? My list is based on numbers from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - is there an issue with their sources?

gowld 6y ago

That's mostly a list of most populous countries in the world. Is that data per capita?

throwlaplace 6y ago
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-cases-per-million?tab=map https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-cases-p... there you go (may 9) df=pd.read_csv("~/Downloads/total-daily-covid-cases-per-million.csv") df.sort_values(['Date', 'Daily new confirmed cases per million (cases)'])[-20:][['Entity', 'Daily new confirmed cases per million (cases)']].to_string(index=False) Out[14]: Entity Daily new confirmed cases per million (cases) Saudi Arabia 48.860 Armenia 48.933 Belgium 50.994 Gabon 52.118 Portugal 54.233 United Arab Emirates 55.913 Gibraltar 59.363 Sweden 63.569 United Kingdom 68.482 Chile 72.765 Russia 73.314 United States 81.440 North America 84.775 Sao Tome and Principe 95.820 Belarus 98.737 Peru 100.722 Singapore 131.274 Bahrain 143.984 Kuwait 150.097 Qatar 455.041
- perl4ever 6y ago
  That is interesting, but per capita data is not the answer to what I was interested in originally - what countries is the epidemic growing fastest in is different from in what countries is most of the epidemic's growth happening in.
perl4ever 6y ago
No, it's based on the actual numbers of new cases. Per capita data tends to have very small countries at the top because they have a larger urban proportion and a larger amount of interaction with foreigners.
perl4ever 6y ago
To expand on my other post, since I can't edit it any longer, the fact that it's many of the largest countries with the most cases is a point of note - the first wave wasn't the largest countries so if that's where we're headed, things are changing.

m0llusk 6y ago

There are a number of analysts comparing the effectiveness of attempts to mitigate this pandemic and finding lockdowns to be high cost and risk for low impact as compared to distancing, handwashing, masks, testing, and tracking. One of the most prominent is Isaac Ben-Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-\ https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple... out-after-70-days/ I'm sorry you don't like the actual math, but the reality is that the initial wave of this pandemic has been burning out in all the effected areas in very similar ways regardless of lockdowns or not. Personally I find detailed studies by experienced professionals like Isaac Ben-Israel more compelling than what you present here.

perl4ever 6y ago
"I'm sorry you don't like the actual math" How is that a response to widely reported data? What are you disagreeing with? Are you saying my data is incorrect or that I'm interpreting it wrong? My list is based on numbers from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - is there an issue with their sources?