3 ms·
As evidenced in this epidemic, epidemiological modeling is either not very good or overconfident. I mean, all models are wrong, but theirs have also been useles
by buboard 6y ago
As evidenced in this epidemic, epidemiological modeling is either not very good or overconfident. I mean, all models are wrong, but theirs have also been useless. Why trust a model if you can do a serology study instead?
- tree3 6y ago> Why trust a model if you can do a serology study instead? Because studies require a lot more time and money, while a model is just on a computer and can be constantly and quickly updated as things change?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- DanBC 6y ago> Why trust a model if you can do a serology study instead? I think the earlier tests were pretty bad, and the newer tests are expensive, but also this kind of modelling is used for other respiratory illness deaths (flu, flu and pneumonia, rhinovirus, adenovirus) so they want to start developing the models to be used in those annual respiratory illness death reports.