4 ms·

Currently around 500 deaths/ million. If you need ~60% for "herd immunity", that implies they'd get around 2500/1m, or 0.25% of the population. Pretty gruesome.

arcticbull 6y ago
0.25% IFR is among the lowest we've seen yet, on the plus side. Lower than Gangelt @ 0.36%.
- sathomasga 6y ago
  If I'm reading it right, they report an IFR from 0.49% to 0.81% (95% credible interval). Ballpark population of England is 50 million. Herd immunity at ~70% means over 200,000 deaths at median IFR of 0.63%. Extrapolating to US population of ~350 million is around 1.5 million deaths.
- gwd 6y ago
  Overall IFR was estimated at 0.63%, because IFR in the 75+ bracket is [EDIT] 16%. This is definitely a deadly disease for the elderly. Seriously, click the link and look around -- there's a lot of interesting stuff to see.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
luckylion 6y ago
Their normal death rate is ~1%, right? Are we sure that there would be little to no overlap between these groups and they'd end up with a death rate of 1.25%?
- gwd 6y ago
  There's a ton of information to poke around at the link; but here's their [EDIT] median estimated IFR by age range: 15-24: 0.0032% 25-44: 0.018% 45-64: 0.28% 65-74: 1.8% 75+: 16% The last one looks similar to the measured death rates by age group in Germany -- i.e., the COVID-19 deaths of 80+ in Germany divided by people tested positive in Germany was around 18% when I looked before, IIRC. So nearly the entirety of the "1-3% fatality" comes from the fact that it's so incredibly deadly to the elderly.
- swebs 6y ago
  The overall death rate for 2020 will probably be even below 1%. The old will still die, but the young are no longer driving, smoking, etc and social distancing is preventing other diseases like the flu.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
gwd 6y ago
Meant to include in my initial "highlights" comment: Estimated "peak" daily infections was 23 March, with 500k infections. Estimate for daily infections as of 10 May closer to 10k; estimated country-wide Rt at 0.75, still well below 1. Method seems to be from this 2009 paper, "Bayesian modeling to unmask and predict influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London": https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3215054/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3215054/ Not equipped to evaluate their method, really; but if it's reasonably accurate, then the UK is not currently really headed towards "natural herd immunity".

arcticbull 6y ago

0.25% IFR is among the lowest we've seen yet, on the plus side. Lower than Gangelt @ 0.36%.

sathomasga 6y ago
If I'm reading it right, they report an IFR from 0.49% to 0.81% (95% credible interval). Ballpark population of England is 50 million. Herd immunity at ~70% means over 200,000 deaths at median IFR of 0.63%. Extrapolating to US population of ~350 million is around 1.5 million deaths.
gwd 6y ago
Overall IFR was estimated at 0.63%, because IFR in the 75+ bracket is [EDIT] 16%. This is definitely a deadly disease for the elderly. Seriously, click the link and look around -- there's a lot of interesting stuff to see.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

luckylion 6y ago

Their normal death rate is ~1%, right? Are we sure that there would be little to no overlap between these groups and they'd end up with a death rate of 1.25%?

gwd 6y ago
There's a ton of information to poke around at the link; but here's their [EDIT] median estimated IFR by age range: 15-24: 0.0032% 25-44: 0.018% 45-64: 0.28% 65-74: 1.8% 75+: 16% The last one looks similar to the measured death rates by age group in Germany -- i.e., the COVID-19 deaths of 80+ in Germany divided by people tested positive in Germany was around 18% when I looked before, IIRC. So nearly the entirety of the "1-3% fatality" comes from the fact that it's so incredibly deadly to the elderly.
swebs 6y ago
The overall death rate for 2020 will probably be even below 1%. The old will still die, but the young are no longer driving, smoking, etc and social distancing is preventing other diseases like the flu.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

gwd 6y ago

Meant to include in my initial "highlights" comment: Estimated "peak" daily infections was 23 March, with 500k infections. Estimate for daily infections as of 10 May closer to 10k; estimated country-wide Rt at 0.75, still well below 1. Method seems to be from this 2009 paper, "Bayesian modeling to unmask and predict influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London": https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3215054/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3215054/ Not equipped to evaluate their method, really; but if it's reasonably accurate, then the UK is not currently really headed towards "natural herd immunity".