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Agreed on the point that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan could quickly become more chaotic than the PRC wants. I think the PRC's strategy is probably to build

Agreed on the point that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan could quickly become more chaotic than the PRC wants. I think the PRC's strategy is probably to build up for a naval battle with the US Navy and use a victory to threaten a multi year blockade of Taiwan like the US did with Cuba. If China can secure naval dominance within the second island chain and a corridor across the Indian ocean to the Middle East and Africa they have all the time in the world to leave Taiwan in a pressure cooker.

remarkEon 6y ago
Yes, this is a strategy I'd consider. "Invasion of Taiwan" is the wrong way to think about this. Blockade and isolation would be the objective, and then use that as a tax on US military resources to further sap an already overextended country. >If China can secure naval dominance within the second island chain Skeptical that they'll be able to do this though, unless it represents a significant change in naval operations and they achieve this via drone or other submarine operations. PLA has had a difficult time getting the aircraft carrier concept to work, even after buying several Soviet era carrier vessels (if my memory serves). It might be a false signal, but that they haven't gotten the aircraft carrier concept to work (which would of course be required for an air bombardment of Taiwan) might mean they're working on other naval hardware that exploits US weaknesses, and thus crippling any US Navy activity via submarine or missile warfare in the Taiwan Straight is the ultimate objective for the above mentioned reasons.
kick 6y ago
I mostly agree with you (I mentioned elsewhere that "invasion of Taiwan" was just supposed to serve as shorthand), but I think you night be underestimating the US Navy and possibly overestimating the PLA.
- remarkEon 6y ago
  See my other reply. I agree with what you're saying here. US Navy is, probably, better situated to handle a conflict there barring a major change in how naval war works.

remarkEon 6y ago

Yes, this is a strategy I'd consider. "Invasion of Taiwan" is the wrong way to think about this. Blockade and isolation would be the objective, and then use that as a tax on US military resources to further sap an already overextended country. >If China can secure naval dominance within the second island chain Skeptical that they'll be able to do this though, unless it represents a significant change in naval operations and they achieve this via drone or other submarine operations. PLA has had a difficult time getting the aircraft carrier concept to work, even after buying several Soviet era carrier vessels (if my memory serves). It might be a false signal, but that they haven't gotten the aircraft carrier concept to work (which would of course be required for an air bombardment of Taiwan) might mean they're working on other naval hardware that exploits US weaknesses, and thus crippling any US Navy activity via submarine or missile warfare in the Taiwan Straight is the ultimate objective for the above mentioned reasons.

kick 6y ago

I mostly agree with you (I mentioned elsewhere that "invasion of Taiwan" was just supposed to serve as shorthand), but I think you night be underestimating the US Navy and possibly overestimating the PLA.

remarkEon 6y ago
See my other reply. I agree with what you're saying here. US Navy is, probably, better situated to handle a conflict there barring a major change in how naval war works.