8 ms·

I think you are wrong, the geo-political tectonic plates has not only shifted but collided violently in Jan 2020. US is brining supply-chain by hook or crook.

I think you are wrong, the geo-political tectonic plates has not only shifted but collided violently in Jan 2020. US is brining supply-chain by hook or crook. Taiwan needs Americas protection and no other country can be its security guarantor not even Japan. So US has leverage. I would be surprised if TSMC does not open multiple facilities in US.

AaronFriel 6y ago
If TSMC brings state of the art fabrication to the US, doesn't that mean they're subject to seizure by the Defense Production Act we've all learned so much about, TSMC's corporate fate becomes subject to CFIUS approval, and because of that, Taiwan loses a significant amount of political leverage to protect itself?
- fermienrico 6y ago
  LOL, that's literally the case with any foreign investment in physical assets. Tesla factory in Shanghai - if there is a war, all bets are off. CCP will raid the factory within the next 20 mins and employ military rule in the factory in about an hour's notice. Physical assets are in some ways the ultimate thing to own. Even services that run on data centers which are physical things. Semiconductors are physical objects that your Dropbox runs on.
  - kick 6y ago
    Which is exactly why this rumor makes no sense.
    - fermienrico 6y ago
      This rumor makes perfect sense. Taiwan is looking at US to shield it from Chinese influence. Moving manufacturing to US and building on top of strong American-Taiwanese collaboration (which already exists) only makes sense. The US has strong laws for IP protection, has proper constitutional values and doesn't steal technologies on a whim without due process. Taiwan has benefited greatly from the US and the US has benefited greatly from Taiwan. I just wish American president was someone like the Taiwanese president. She is a strong, powerful and smart lady.
      - jandrese 6y ago
        No offense, but your post reads like the official propaganda channel of the Taiwan government.
        fermienrico 6y ago
        Do you have anything to add besides this?
        jandrese 6y ago
        Maybe consider toning it back in the future if you don't want people rolling their eyes at your posts?
        dang 6y ago
        Please follow the site guidelines in the future. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
      - catalogia 6y ago
        If the American government believed that TSMC facilities in America would meet America's demand for silicon, then wouldn't America lose that incentive to ensure Taiwan wasn't steamrolled by China? Supposing such a war did take place, TSMC might be unable to continue operating in Taiwan but still able to operate in some capacity in America. Would TSMC scrap the fabs in America just to spite the American government for the betrayal of Taiwan? That doesn't seem likely to me. I don't doubt that the Taiwanese president is smart, which is why I doubt this story.
        transpute 6y ago
        > wouldn't America lose that incentive to ensure Taiwan wasn't steamrolled by China No, the opposite. Real trade enables balanced long-term interdependency, growth and innovation, unlike "free" trade focused on extraction and asymmetrical flows. The most valuable assets brought to the table by Taiwan and the USA are culture and these are complementary in the long term.
- xxpor 6y ago
  Last I checked, the DPA doesn't allow seizure, just forced manufacturing for a price. I'm not sure about the specifics, but it sounds like the theory is that there's at least a little profit in the price used under the DPA.
  - wahern 6y ago
    No law could permit uncompensated seizure as it would violate the 4th Amendment. Forced labor would violate the 13th Amendment. A better to way to look at it is that the DPA sets the rules for commercial activity--if you want to undertake commercial activity, you have to do so subject to the regulating law, which in the case of the DPA includes the possibility of building and selling whatever the government requests. You could always choose to just walk away, of course.
    - dragonwriter 6y ago
      > No law could permit uncompensated seizure as it would violate the 4th Amendment. 5th. > Forced labor would violate the 13th Amendment. Not if the laborers were convicts, but, yes, generally.
    - AaronFriel 6y ago
      The takings clause is quite interesting and I imagine that between the expansive national security powers granted to the President and Congress's assent, the Court and the Executive might find a way to justify such a taking perhaps by seizing the foreign ownership of the corporation. Of course the takings clause could also be satisfied by compensating TSMC, which perhaps due to sanctions or congressional action could be tied up indefinitely.
baybal2 6y ago
> I think you are wrong, the geo-political tectonic plates has not only shifted but collided violently in Jan 2020. I don't think so. In 10 years, there will be no Trump in the office, and I doubt than even US based companies are ready to stake so much money on US government money continuing to come in 10 years term. > Taiwan needs Americas protection and no other country Their biggest defence against China is their mutual economic annihilation, along with most of world's light industry. Remember, it was USA who made them loose their UN seat, and sabotaged their nuclear weapons program to keep them dependent, and let China into the WTO. Since at least Jiang Jingguo, Taiwan has been rather ambivalent with USA, and are wary of being set up Trump is not the first to raise the point on this exact matter, in fact that was going back and forth at least since Bush Jr as I know. Lastly, the biggest, and most obvious argument about your sentiment is that if American political establishment (with Trump, or without him) were truly serious about committing to confrontation with China, they should've started with barring US companies making business with Chinese multinationals, or at least obvious state companies. Without seeing that first, you can be assured that US will not run into collision with China, or the politically connected big money in US would be first to run.
- forgot_again 6y ago
  The movement to bring supply chains back to the US, or at the very least out of China, is far bigger than Trump.
  - fermienrico 6y ago
    Not just US, the entire world is waking up to CCP's iron grip. Europe, Korea, Japan, India and Australia are planning to recede from China's dependence on manufacturing. This is an amazing time to be alive, I encourage people to look into manufacturing disciplines. As Elon put it (agree or disagree with him, but he is right about this) - "Someone's gotta build stuff. If you're not doing it, someone else is." Physical things don't just pop out of thin air. Every single thing except your body and natural substances are manmade. Someone decided how its gonna be built and how it will come into existence.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
ckocagil 6y ago
There's no way they are that stupid. TSMC alone has the power to shut down a huge number of electronics companies in both China and the US. Remember the HDD crisis? Anything happening to TSMC would dwarf that. Nope, Taiwan is not giving up their biggest playing card. That would amount to suicide.
- ohazi 6y ago
  I don't think anyone would be stupid enough to trust promises from a US administration right now, but I can potentially imagine a (far?) future scenario where Taiwan agrees to build fabs in the US in exchange for official "Taiwan is a separate country and definitely not part of China" recognition from the US. A lot of stars would have to align though, and even then it would be a pretty big risk for Taiwan and possibly still not worth it.
  - google234123 6y ago
    BTW, daily reminder that Taiwan is a separate country and definitely not part of China. :)
    - indemnity 6y ago
      One might say that the Taiwanese government is the one that should be in power on the mainland as well :)
      - google234123 6y ago
        I won't say that
      - ngcc_hk 6y ago
        A law is in the pipeline (first reading in Taiwan) to remove that claim. I call it one-china law. Taiwan Finally recognise china as the Sovereignty of the mainland. Total cut off. The china strangely you may think object. It is like British is passing a law finally to give up USA and USA object. But china do. And they know once cut off the USA can recognise Taiwan, unlike in the past it is a bit of conflict. What is Taiwan - oh the whole china. Now what is Taiwan? An island ruled by an independent state from at least 1949 (or legally from 1911 one should say). It even has a us-Taiwan act link even after 1979s. It is good timing to try this move. But before that ...And hence all civilian infra is moving out from china by their allies and USA may have to think about getting key assets duplicate from Taiwan. No one Outside china want war. But you have to prepare for it and avoid a total disruption of you own country and life. Chip is strategic. And the skill set not just the tools. Higher post same idea as my previous post. Taiwan need a deal as USA cannot be trusted in international conflict. It is ok for Korea and Japan perhaps, but would USA gave up Taiwan when the first USA soldier died. We are talking about a country that has nuclear bomb and the means to bomb USA mainland. Some deal needed.
pjc50 6y ago
US is making a lot of noise about it, but the current administration lacks the competence to actually do it. The US generally doesn't do this kind of state-directed enterprise dirigisme, outside of Boeing. Remember Foxconn Wisconsin? https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/12/21217060/foxconn-wisconsin-innovation-centers-empty-buildings https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/12/21217060/foxconn-wisconsi...
- monocasa 6y ago
  Falling behind in state of the art of fabs is seen by the DoD as the same kind of strategic issue that leads to them propping up Boeing.
  - verall 6y ago
    You'd think, if the people in charge had any sense, but it's really about lobbying, and Boing is much better at that than Intel.
  - anitil 6y ago
    > the same kind of strategic issue that leads to them propping up Boeing I don't quite understand what you mean by this, what is the context of US support for Boeing?
    - redis_mlc 6y ago
      Here's the backstory on Boeing and the military. US air doctrine is that they will always buy air dominance, so Boeing will be funded for military programs. However, the US govt. historically has had the influence to tell military aircraft mfgs. what to prioritize, and what lines to drop. An example is Northrop. They were told to drop the popular F-5 and F-20, and focus on the B-1 program. They were also told to merge with a competitor, but declined. It's weird when you first study it, but the US Air Force wants zero risk missions into enemy skies. So that's why they're ok with a handful of $200 million fighters and $2 billion bombers, if they're stealthy enough not to be seen. (Stalin on the other hand is often attributed with saying, "Quantity has a quality of its own." I would argue a balance is needed between a perfect fighter, in the case of the F-22 with under 200 airframes mfg., and having 10,000 slightly less perfect ones, like the F-16.) W: F-22 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor
beverly451 6y ago
FYI the OP of this thread is "Mr Paul Ni" based in Guangdong who has repeatedly posted on Weibo and other Mainland media from multiple accounts statements such as "Han man rising to the top like the Sun, taking the impure foreign man's wealth and women", "fentanyl opioid war retaliation against the Imperialist West", "Chinese race rise to rightful power", "Hong Kong cockroaches should be crushed", "unleashing the virus on clueless West" and other stuff like that. Just to provide some context into possible motivation behind some of the statements they are making.
Aperocky 6y ago
> US is brining supply-chain by hook or crook. What if the current administration don't last till 2021? Or more likely, what if the word of the current administration don't last till 2021?
- sremani 6y ago
  With 40 million in unemployment queue and nation feeling vulnerable and paranoid.. Americans are not fucking around no matter what ideological stripe they come in. Some talk softer than others but the direction is baked in.
  - Aperocky 6y ago
    > Americans are not fucking around As a government with a consistent policy? I'll wait until 2021.

AaronFriel 6y ago

If TSMC brings state of the art fabrication to the US, doesn't that mean they're subject to seizure by the Defense Production Act we've all learned so much about, TSMC's corporate fate becomes subject to CFIUS approval, and because of that, Taiwan loses a significant amount of political leverage to protect itself?

fermienrico 6y ago
LOL, that's literally the case with any foreign investment in physical assets. Tesla factory in Shanghai - if there is a war, all bets are off. CCP will raid the factory within the next 20 mins and employ military rule in the factory in about an hour's notice. Physical assets are in some ways the ultimate thing to own. Even services that run on data centers which are physical things. Semiconductors are physical objects that your Dropbox runs on.
- kick 6y ago
  Which is exactly why this rumor makes no sense.
  - fermienrico 6y ago
    This rumor makes perfect sense. Taiwan is looking at US to shield it from Chinese influence. Moving manufacturing to US and building on top of strong American-Taiwanese collaboration (which already exists) only makes sense. The US has strong laws for IP protection, has proper constitutional values and doesn't steal technologies on a whim without due process. Taiwan has benefited greatly from the US and the US has benefited greatly from Taiwan. I just wish American president was someone like the Taiwanese president. She is a strong, powerful and smart lady.
    - jandrese 6y ago
      No offense, but your post reads like the official propaganda channel of the Taiwan government.
      - fermienrico 6y ago
        Do you have anything to add besides this?
        jandrese 6y ago
        Maybe consider toning it back in the future if you don't want people rolling their eyes at your posts?
      - dang 6y ago
        Please follow the site guidelines in the future. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - catalogia 6y ago
      If the American government believed that TSMC facilities in America would meet America's demand for silicon, then wouldn't America lose that incentive to ensure Taiwan wasn't steamrolled by China? Supposing such a war did take place, TSMC might be unable to continue operating in Taiwan but still able to operate in some capacity in America. Would TSMC scrap the fabs in America just to spite the American government for the betrayal of Taiwan? That doesn't seem likely to me. I don't doubt that the Taiwanese president is smart, which is why I doubt this story.
      - transpute 6y ago
        > wouldn't America lose that incentive to ensure Taiwan wasn't steamrolled by China No, the opposite. Real trade enables balanced long-term interdependency, growth and innovation, unlike "free" trade focused on extraction and asymmetrical flows. The most valuable assets brought to the table by Taiwan and the USA are culture and these are complementary in the long term.
xxpor 6y ago
Last I checked, the DPA doesn't allow seizure, just forced manufacturing for a price. I'm not sure about the specifics, but it sounds like the theory is that there's at least a little profit in the price used under the DPA.
- wahern 6y ago
  No law could permit uncompensated seizure as it would violate the 4th Amendment. Forced labor would violate the 13th Amendment. A better to way to look at it is that the DPA sets the rules for commercial activity--if you want to undertake commercial activity, you have to do so subject to the regulating law, which in the case of the DPA includes the possibility of building and selling whatever the government requests. You could always choose to just walk away, of course.
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > No law could permit uncompensated seizure as it would violate the 4th Amendment. 5th. > Forced labor would violate the 13th Amendment. Not if the laborers were convicts, but, yes, generally.
  - AaronFriel 6y ago
    The takings clause is quite interesting and I imagine that between the expansive national security powers granted to the President and Congress's assent, the Court and the Executive might find a way to justify such a taking perhaps by seizing the foreign ownership of the corporation. Of course the takings clause could also be satisfied by compensating TSMC, which perhaps due to sanctions or congressional action could be tied up indefinitely.

baybal2 6y ago

> I think you are wrong, the geo-political tectonic plates has not only shifted but collided violently in Jan 2020. I don't think so. In 10 years, there will be no Trump in the office, and I doubt than even US based companies are ready to stake so much money on US government money continuing to come in 10 years term. > Taiwan needs Americas protection and no other country Their biggest defence against China is their mutual economic annihilation, along with most of world's light industry. Remember, it was USA who made them loose their UN seat, and sabotaged their nuclear weapons program to keep them dependent, and let China into the WTO. Since at least Jiang Jingguo, Taiwan has been rather ambivalent with USA, and are wary of being set up Trump is not the first to raise the point on this exact matter, in fact that was going back and forth at least since Bush Jr as I know. Lastly, the biggest, and most obvious argument about your sentiment is that if American political establishment (with Trump, or without him) were truly serious about committing to confrontation with China, they should've started with barring US companies making business with Chinese multinationals, or at least obvious state companies. Without seeing that first, you can be assured that US will not run into collision with China, or the politically connected big money in US would be first to run.

forgot_again 6y ago
The movement to bring supply chains back to the US, or at the very least out of China, is far bigger than Trump.
- fermienrico 6y ago
  Not just US, the entire world is waking up to CCP's iron grip. Europe, Korea, Japan, India and Australia are planning to recede from China's dependence on manufacturing. This is an amazing time to be alive, I encourage people to look into manufacturing disciplines. As Elon put it (agree or disagree with him, but he is right about this) - "Someone's gotta build stuff. If you're not doing it, someone else is." Physical things don't just pop out of thin air. Every single thing except your body and natural substances are manmade. Someone decided how its gonna be built and how it will come into existence.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

ckocagil 6y ago

There's no way they are that stupid. TSMC alone has the power to shut down a huge number of electronics companies in both China and the US. Remember the HDD crisis? Anything happening to TSMC would dwarf that. Nope, Taiwan is not giving up their biggest playing card. That would amount to suicide.

ohazi 6y ago
I don't think anyone would be stupid enough to trust promises from a US administration right now, but I can potentially imagine a (far?) future scenario where Taiwan agrees to build fabs in the US in exchange for official "Taiwan is a separate country and definitely not part of China" recognition from the US. A lot of stars would have to align though, and even then it would be a pretty big risk for Taiwan and possibly still not worth it.
- google234123 6y ago
  BTW, daily reminder that Taiwan is a separate country and definitely not part of China. :)
  - indemnity 6y ago
    One might say that the Taiwanese government is the one that should be in power on the mainland as well :)
    - google234123 6y ago
      I won't say that
    - ngcc_hk 6y ago
      A law is in the pipeline (first reading in Taiwan) to remove that claim. I call it one-china law. Taiwan Finally recognise china as the Sovereignty of the mainland. Total cut off. The china strangely you may think object. It is like British is passing a law finally to give up USA and USA object. But china do. And they know once cut off the USA can recognise Taiwan, unlike in the past it is a bit of conflict. What is Taiwan - oh the whole china. Now what is Taiwan? An island ruled by an independent state from at least 1949 (or legally from 1911 one should say). It even has a us-Taiwan act link even after 1979s. It is good timing to try this move. But before that ...And hence all civilian infra is moving out from china by their allies and USA may have to think about getting key assets duplicate from Taiwan. No one Outside china want war. But you have to prepare for it and avoid a total disruption of you own country and life. Chip is strategic. And the skill set not just the tools. Higher post same idea as my previous post. Taiwan need a deal as USA cannot be trusted in international conflict. It is ok for Korea and Japan perhaps, but would USA gave up Taiwan when the first USA soldier died. We are talking about a country that has nuclear bomb and the means to bomb USA mainland. Some deal needed.

pjc50 6y ago

US is making a lot of noise about it, but the current administration lacks the competence to actually do it. The US generally doesn't do this kind of state-directed enterprise dirigisme, outside of Boeing. Remember Foxconn Wisconsin? https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/12/21217060/foxconn-wisconsin-innovation-centers-empty-buildings https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/12/21217060/foxconn-wisconsi...

monocasa 6y ago
Falling behind in state of the art of fabs is seen by the DoD as the same kind of strategic issue that leads to them propping up Boeing.
- verall 6y ago
  You'd think, if the people in charge had any sense, but it's really about lobbying, and Boing is much better at that than Intel.
- anitil 6y ago
  > the same kind of strategic issue that leads to them propping up Boeing I don't quite understand what you mean by this, what is the context of US support for Boeing?
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    Here's the backstory on Boeing and the military. US air doctrine is that they will always buy air dominance, so Boeing will be funded for military programs. However, the US govt. historically has had the influence to tell military aircraft mfgs. what to prioritize, and what lines to drop. An example is Northrop. They were told to drop the popular F-5 and F-20, and focus on the B-1 program. They were also told to merge with a competitor, but declined. It's weird when you first study it, but the US Air Force wants zero risk missions into enemy skies. So that's why they're ok with a handful of $200 million fighters and $2 billion bombers, if they're stealthy enough not to be seen. (Stalin on the other hand is often attributed with saying, "Quantity has a quality of its own." I would argue a balance is needed between a perfect fighter, in the case of the F-22 with under 200 airframes mfg., and having 10,000 slightly less perfect ones, like the F-16.) W: F-22 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-22_Raptor

beverly451 6y ago

FYI the OP of this thread is "Mr Paul Ni" based in Guangdong who has repeatedly posted on Weibo and other Mainland media from multiple accounts statements such as "Han man rising to the top like the Sun, taking the impure foreign man's wealth and women", "fentanyl opioid war retaliation against the Imperialist West", "Chinese race rise to rightful power", "Hong Kong cockroaches should be crushed", "unleashing the virus on clueless West" and other stuff like that. Just to provide some context into possible motivation behind some of the statements they are making.

Aperocky 6y ago

> US is brining supply-chain by hook or crook. What if the current administration don't last till 2021? Or more likely, what if the word of the current administration don't last till 2021?

sremani 6y ago
With 40 million in unemployment queue and nation feeling vulnerable and paranoid.. Americans are not fucking around no matter what ideological stripe they come in. Some talk softer than others but the direction is baked in.
- Aperocky 6y ago
  > Americans are not fucking around As a government with a consistent policy? I'll wait until 2021.