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The article says it would be a 5nm fab and the core reason behind it would be to sell to America which is getting more and more worried about dependence on Asia
by solidasparagus 6y ago
The article says it would be a 5nm fab and the core reason behind it would be to sell to America which is getting more and more worried about dependence on Asian supply chains. As a US government backed initiative, it seems likely that the US would help financially in some way.
- baybal2 6y ago5nm fab will require an investment of $15B+. Moreover, having it in the middle of nowhere in Arizona, without a semiconductor supply chain there will also add massive cost of building a support cluster by themselves. Intel itself has to haul all consumables for their US fabs in Arizona from Asia. So, add few more billions for the uncertainty on the supply chain side. Plus, having a 2-3 year project deadline looks to me as feasible, but still very tight. TSMC's 5nm fab in Taiwan has effectively took 4 years given that they still in the final stages of setting up its internals. In US, they will have to do all of that without the massive support of Taiwanese industry, and no local expertise. Also, by completing a 5nm project 3-4 years from now, who they will be selling the capacity to, when biggest cash cows will move to 3nm, and there will be nobody to take their place for existing 5nm capacity? The cost of tapeout on 14nm is already so extreme that leaves only around 30 companies globally in the game, it will be much worse for 5nm. Now, the biggest showstopper — TSMC is a public company with a lot of pension fund, and sovereign fund type investors. How they are going to make them swallow that? Them saying that out of the blue will be a bombshell. Lastly, Taiwanese government has long subjected its semiconductor industry to zealous supervision, and policy guidance. Such move will have to pass by the regulators, which Taiwan has many. So, without US government putting at least $20B cash, and big guarantees on the table, the project seems to be in the same gimmick rank as Foxconn's Wisconsin plant. Commercially, it makes not much sense to me unless something really surreal is happening on the political, or financial side of the matter.
- Cyph0n 6y agoWell, having a fab in the middle of nowhere alleviates concerns related to vibration, noise, and water supply, no?
- dralley 6y agoAnd pollution. Semiconductor manufacturing is dirty, dirty business.
- kube-system 6y agoNot sure about having plenty of water in Arizona, but they've got plenty of silicon. :)
- lawrenceyan 6y agoIntel has the majority of its fabs in Arizona. What are you talking about?
- dralley 6y agoIntel has 4 fabs in Arizona, and one in New Mexico =. They have more fabs in Oregon (6) but it's not like TSMC will be building from scratch out in Arizona. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_manufacturing_sites https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_manufacturing_si...
- coredog64 6y agoMicrochip has fabs in AZ. Before LSI sold off their Oregon plant, ONN’s most advanced fab was in Phoenix. NXP has Freescale’s old fabs as well. I think generally speaking, AZ is well represented in terms of fab expertise.
- solidasparagus 6y agoWe'll have to wait to see what happens, but $20B cash is absolutely nothing to the US government if we are talking about securing vital supply chains. And US-Chinese relations aren't going so hot so it feels like ripple effects on the chip industry are inevitable.
- russler23 6y ago5nm will be a more budget-friendly option for TSMC customers in 2023. This is a conservative proposal, not something bleeding edge.
- shermanmccoy 6y ago> Now, the biggest showstopper Barely any stock market reaction this morning on the Taiwan exchange open (ticker: 2330:TT).