I think the real underlying justification for the lockdowns wasn't "we need to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed" so much as "hospitals might be overwhel

I think the real underlying justification for the lockdowns wasn't "we need to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed" so much as "hospitals might be overwhelmed and we need more information to see the tail risk exposure." People weren't distancing before the lockdowns because of fear of hospitals being overwhelmed, they were distancing because they did not personally want to get sick.