4 ms·

Knowing the pace that Musk dictates I would love to know what else Tesla is working on or what the pipeline is. Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies could

by zpeti 6y ago

Knowing the pace that Musk dictates I would love to know what else Tesla is working on or what the pipeline is. Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies could have caught up if they focused their efforts, but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch. The biggest risk is running into cashflow issues but I believe at the last report they had about 2 years worth of capital expenses in the bank, so this is also unlikely to be an issue.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Battery day for investors will supposedly show off cells that will experience only ~10% degradation over 1 million miles of wear (roughly 83 years of driving the average 12k miles/year an American drives), while also removing as much conflict cobalt as possible from the cell chemistry. Their autobidder software used at the Hornsdale Power Reserve for utility scale storage is in the process of being extended to allow Tesla to act as a virtual utility in the UK. Components of this are used in Sweden to provide Tesla owners with low cost power to charge their vehicles based on market pricing signals from the utility (charge when the cost of electricity is low or negative). Exciting times.
- thoraway1010 6y ago
  Prices go negative because it's basically a grid control service at that point. You have a load you need to have taken, and are willing to pay someone to help you manage the grid.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    It's the other way around; prices go negative because you have too much power, not enough load, and you're paying someone to take that power because you can't curtail like solar or wind (perhaps you're a gas turbine or coal/nuclear generator that must run for frequency control purposes).
thatfrenchguy 6y ago
> but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch Are they really though ? You don't see Tesla being much more efficient than any other EVs so far ?
- eyesee 6y ago
  Actually yes, they are noticeably more efficient than other electric vehicles in their class (similar weight and range). One example shows Tesla as 20% more efficient: Chevy Bolt: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml Tesla Model 3 Standard Range+: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml Here's a complete list: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml
  - semi-extrinsic 6y ago
    Comparing Model 3 vs Bolt on efficiency is just aerodynamics. A lower, longer car is of course more efficient than a taller, shorter one. The Hyundai Ioniq is a similarly shaped EV as the Model 3, and it gets very similar numbers - 133 MPGe (Ioniq) versus 141 MPGe for the best version of the Model 3 Standard Range, a difference that's smaller than going from 18 to 20 inch rims on the Model 3 Long Range Performance. It is essentially useless to compare cars that are within 10 MPGe of each other at 130+ MPGe. If your tires are slightly off optimal pressure, or you've left something heavy in the trunk, or you've chosen different rims than standard, you've lost more than this. God forbid if you've put on a roof rack, probably drops you 30 MPGe down to 100-ish. This discussion also underpins why MPG is a poor unit to measure efficiency with. The inverse measures used in Europe like L/100km or kWh/km are much easier to compare, as differences can be compared directly between a low and a high efficiency car
    - kube-system 6y ago
      I don't think many people realize that MPG is not a linear measure of fuel/energy consumption. https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg If an average driver (12,000mi/yr) switches from a 12 mpg car to a 15 mpg car, they save 200 gallons of gas per yr. If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 60 mpg car to a 63 mpg car, they save 10 gallons of gas per yr. If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 133 mpg car to a 141 mpg car, they save 5 gallons of gas per yr.
Ididntdothis 6y ago
“Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies could have caught up if they focused their efforts, but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch.“ Car companies have deep pockets and catching up is always easier than going first. I can’t think of many industries where the first mover was the winner. Usually it’s the second movers who succeed and gain dominance. Tesla is still bound by the law of physics and chemistry so what they do, others can do too.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  And yet, even Volkswagen recently admitted that they only intend to follow Tesla on BEV, not lead them. Toyota has no skin in the game (they completely missed the switch to BEV), BMW and Daimler are unable to compete (even when they join force), etc. The deep pockets of the non-electric car companies are evaporating fast nowadays, they margins keep dropping while Tesla's increase. Things are moving quickly, and far too quickly for those who couldn't change while they were massively profiting from internal combustion engines.
  - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
    Toyota is still focusing on fuel cells, which, I think is dead for consumer cars, however I think makes sense in long distance travel for large vehicles (trailers, for example). I think the death of ICE manufacturers is overblown right now, pending a major increase in battery tech by Tesla, which would just be awesome - but Buying an electric car right now is not a financially smart move for most buyers. First, the biggest market in automotive, crossovers and SUVs, there are not any affordable options for electric vehicles. Even in the sedan segment, with gas so damn cheap, the Model 3 just isn't worth it if you care about saving money.
    - nickik 6y ago
      Fuel cells don't really win compared to gas. Its hard to see any adoption of them even in those areas. For utility vehicle the price matters very much, and hydrogen is not cheap. The ICE manufacturers are not gone die just like that for many years, however the question is, when they have all made the transition, what will the market share of Tesla be and who will they take it from. The problem for old manufactures is that they have a gigantic capital investment in things like engines. A lot of that investment has not been amortized. Switching to EV requires both a massive investment in redesigning all cars to be EVs, huge investment in retooling your manufacturing and a lots of margin if you don't build batteries. All that goes into your margin for EVs, and thus they are terrible for most automakers. So you are forced to sell a product that doesn't make much profit and requires a huge capital base, when you already have a huge capital base for producing marginally profitable ICE cars that are dropping in resale value quickly. I think I disagree with the point about finaces. Sure a cheap ICE car is better, but when buying an car comparable with a Tesla in price, I rather have the Tesla. Gas is cheap now, but power is still cheaper usually. Gas could be more expensive again for many reasons. In 5 years ICE car will have basically no resale value while EV should hold their value much better. All that said, buying a cheap ICE car with an efficient engine is the way to save money. Or use public transportation like me :)
pmorici 6y ago
Check out the Hyperchange YouTube channel it does a really really good job of following Tesla battery developments and has had a number of scoops that I haven't seen reported in the media. This article also seems to confuse Tesla's relationship with CATL and their efforts to research, develop and manufacture their own cells independent of their parties like Panasonic or CATL. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UEKbXQWlnM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UEKbXQWlnM [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUvmonUzkmE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUvmonUzkmE
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  The Limiting Factor channel is even better (less marketing, more technical, with a huge focus on battery tech): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw And for reliable general reporting on Tesla, Tesla Daily is far better than HyperChange (who's far too hyperbolizing): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgYkuL87rUwiBl7tqfN53Eg https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgYkuL87rUwiBl7tqfN53Eg
  - pmorici 6y ago
    Agree those are also good.

by zpeti 6y ago

toomuchtodo 6y ago

Battery day for investors will supposedly show off cells that will experience only ~10% degradation over 1 million miles of wear (roughly 83 years of driving the average 12k miles/year an American drives), while also removing as much conflict cobalt as possible from the cell chemistry. Their autobidder software used at the Hornsdale Power Reserve for utility scale storage is in the process of being extended to allow Tesla to act as a virtual utility in the UK. Components of this are used in Sweden to provide Tesla owners with low cost power to charge their vehicles based on market pricing signals from the utility (charge when the cost of electricity is low or negative). Exciting times.

thoraway1010 6y ago
Prices go negative because it's basically a grid control service at that point. You have a load you need to have taken, and are willing to pay someone to help you manage the grid.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  It's the other way around; prices go negative because you have too much power, not enough load, and you're paying someone to take that power because you can't curtail like solar or wind (perhaps you're a gas turbine or coal/nuclear generator that must run for frequency control purposes).

thatfrenchguy 6y ago

> but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch Are they really though ? You don't see Tesla being much more efficient than any other EVs so far ?

eyesee 6y ago
Actually yes, they are noticeably more efficient than other electric vehicles in their class (similar weight and range). One example shows Tesla as 20% more efficient: Chevy Bolt: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml Tesla Model 3 Standard Range+: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml Here's a complete list: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml
- semi-extrinsic 6y ago
  Comparing Model 3 vs Bolt on efficiency is just aerodynamics. A lower, longer car is of course more efficient than a taller, shorter one. The Hyundai Ioniq is a similarly shaped EV as the Model 3, and it gets very similar numbers - 133 MPGe (Ioniq) versus 141 MPGe for the best version of the Model 3 Standard Range, a difference that's smaller than going from 18 to 20 inch rims on the Model 3 Long Range Performance. It is essentially useless to compare cars that are within 10 MPGe of each other at 130+ MPGe. If your tires are slightly off optimal pressure, or you've left something heavy in the trunk, or you've chosen different rims than standard, you've lost more than this. God forbid if you've put on a roof rack, probably drops you 30 MPGe down to 100-ish. This discussion also underpins why MPG is a poor unit to measure efficiency with. The inverse measures used in Europe like L/100km or kWh/km are much easier to compare, as differences can be compared directly between a low and a high efficiency car
  - kube-system 6y ago
    I don't think many people realize that MPG is not a linear measure of fuel/energy consumption. https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg If an average driver (12,000mi/yr) switches from a 12 mpg car to a 15 mpg car, they save 200 gallons of gas per yr. If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 60 mpg car to a 63 mpg car, they save 10 gallons of gas per yr. If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 133 mpg car to a 141 mpg car, they save 5 gallons of gas per yr.

Ididntdothis 6y ago

“Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies could have caught up if they focused their efforts, but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch.“ Car companies have deep pockets and catching up is always easier than going first. I can’t think of many industries where the first mover was the winner. Usually it’s the second movers who succeed and gain dominance. Tesla is still bound by the law of physics and chemistry so what they do, others can do too.

rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
And yet, even Volkswagen recently admitted that they only intend to follow Tesla on BEV, not lead them. Toyota has no skin in the game (they completely missed the switch to BEV), BMW and Daimler are unable to compete (even when they join force), etc. The deep pockets of the non-electric car companies are evaporating fast nowadays, they margins keep dropping while Tesla's increase. Things are moving quickly, and far too quickly for those who couldn't change while they were massively profiting from internal combustion engines.
- ntsplnkv2 6y ago
  Toyota is still focusing on fuel cells, which, I think is dead for consumer cars, however I think makes sense in long distance travel for large vehicles (trailers, for example). I think the death of ICE manufacturers is overblown right now, pending a major increase in battery tech by Tesla, which would just be awesome - but Buying an electric car right now is not a financially smart move for most buyers. First, the biggest market in automotive, crossovers and SUVs, there are not any affordable options for electric vehicles. Even in the sedan segment, with gas so damn cheap, the Model 3 just isn't worth it if you care about saving money.
  - nickik 6y ago
    Fuel cells don't really win compared to gas. Its hard to see any adoption of them even in those areas. For utility vehicle the price matters very much, and hydrogen is not cheap. The ICE manufacturers are not gone die just like that for many years, however the question is, when they have all made the transition, what will the market share of Tesla be and who will they take it from. The problem for old manufactures is that they have a gigantic capital investment in things like engines. A lot of that investment has not been amortized. Switching to EV requires both a massive investment in redesigning all cars to be EVs, huge investment in retooling your manufacturing and a lots of margin if you don't build batteries. All that goes into your margin for EVs, and thus they are terrible for most automakers. So you are forced to sell a product that doesn't make much profit and requires a huge capital base, when you already have a huge capital base for producing marginally profitable ICE cars that are dropping in resale value quickly. I think I disagree with the point about finaces. Sure a cheap ICE car is better, but when buying an car comparable with a Tesla in price, I rather have the Tesla. Gas is cheap now, but power is still cheaper usually. Gas could be more expensive again for many reasons. In 5 years ICE car will have basically no resale value while EV should hold their value much better. All that said, buying a cheap ICE car with an efficient engine is the way to save money. Or use public transportation like me :)

pmorici 6y ago

Check out the Hyperchange YouTube channel it does a really really good job of following Tesla battery developments and has had a number of scoops that I haven't seen reported in the media. This article also seems to confuse Tesla's relationship with CATL and their efforts to research, develop and manufacture their own cells independent of their parties like Panasonic or CATL. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UEKbXQWlnM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UEKbXQWlnM [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUvmonUzkmE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUvmonUzkmE

rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
The Limiting Factor channel is even better (less marketing, more technical, with a huge focus on battery tech): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw And for reliable general reporting on Tesla, Tesla Daily is far better than HyperChange (who's far too hyperbolizing): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgYkuL87rUwiBl7tqfN53Eg https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgYkuL87rUwiBl7tqfN53Eg
- pmorici 6y ago
  Agree those are also good.