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You used the 2022 number for your calculation. The estimated number for 2020 is 257 million and we can assume that is an EOY number so the actual number would

by cwhiz 6y ago

You used the 2022 number for your calculation. The estimated number for 2020 is 257 million and we can assume that is an EOY number so the actual number would be somewhere between 248M and 257M. If we assume absolute linear growth from 2019 the number as of today would be around 251 million. That's out of ~330 million US citizens for a rate of ~76%. Toddlers, children, and poor teenagers are people that also exist and can be in a grocery store as asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus. I was generous and went with 80%. Your second link is just a study that suggests contact tracing COULD work. But the fact that something could work in theory doesn't mean it will work in practice. I don't know where you got your 60% number from because that number isn't mentioned in that study. I don't think it matters anyway because we won't get anywhere near 60%. Singapore tried this idea and they made it voluntary just like it is being made voluntary in the US. 20-25% of people used it. Now they are trying to make it involuntary by forcing businesses to scan phones at entrances to businesses, schools, and healthcare facilities. Do you really think Americans will accept this? No way. I doubt the legality of this approach in the first place. It would take Donald Trump signing a law to get to 60%. People want this to work because it makes them feel better. Reality has other ideas.

bhupy 6y ago
> That's out of ~330 million US citizens for a rate of ~76%. Toddlers, children, and poor teenagers are people that also exist and can be in a grocery store as asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus. I was generous and went with 80%. Okay sure, but nit-picking that number doesn't change the core argument: you only need 60% for contact tracing to work, according to the most recent research. Remember that the goal here isn't to ensure that NOBODY gets COVID, it's to drive R0 down to < 1. People in grocery stores will still be exposed, but if R0 < 1, then the disease will eventually die out. > Your second link is just a study that suggests contact tracing COULD work. But the fact that something could work in theory doesn't mean it will work in practice. I don't know where you got your 60% number from because that number isn't mentioned in that study. I don't think it matters anyway because we won't get anywhere near 60%. You need to read the full article before attempting to refute it, but I'll help you out. "The efficacy of contact tracing (the y axis of Fig. 3) is the square of the proportion of the population using the app, multiplied by the probability of the app detecting infectious contacts, multiplied by the fractional reduction in infectiousness resulting from being notified as a contact." I've taken a screenshot of the diagram for you: https://imgur.com/ZXPLLxk https://imgur.com/ZXPLLxk The solid black line shows the threshold for epidemic control. While you're right that the paper doesn't claim that it is CERTAIN to work, nobody is sure. In fact, it's odd to me that you are so positive that it WON'T work. "This has absolutely no chance of working in the US." Even scientists don't make claims like this with that level of comical confidence. > Singapore tried this idea and they made it voluntary just like it is being made voluntary in the US. 20-25% of people used it. Now they are trying to make it involuntary by forcing businesses to scan phones at entrances to businesses, schools, and healthcare facilities. Do you really think Americans will accept this? No way. I doubt the legality of this approach in the first place. > It would take Donald Trump signing a law to get to 60%. People want this to work because it makes them feel better. Reality has other ideas. Okay but what happens when Apple and Google build this into the operating system, and contact tracing is always on, like the bluetooth radio, the push notification service, or OS-level location services?
- cwhiz 6y ago
  > Okay but what happens when Apple and Google build this into the operating system, and contact tracing is always on, like the bluetooth radio, the push notification service, or OS-level location services? They aren’t doing this and have said that they never will. It will be purely voluntary. Are you even going to attempt to refute the absolute failure of this app in Singapore?
  - bhupy 6y ago
    > They aren’t doing this and have said that they never will. It will be purely voluntary. You're really into the authoritative claims, aren't you? :) They seem to disagree with you: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps-factbox/factbox-the-race-to-deploy-covid-19-contact-tracing-apps-idUSKBN22Q2KU https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps-f... "Later this year, Apple and Google will include the tool in software updates, meaning users can log contacts without having to download an app." There is absolutely nothing preventing Apple & Google from turning this on for everyone, at least in the US. To the extent that they've said that they "never will", it's a glorified pinky promise. If it's economically in their best interests for R0 to drop down to < 1, then there is nothing structurally preventing them from rolling out OS updates with this on by default. > Are you even going to attempt to refute the absolute failure of this app in Singapore? It's irrelevant if Apple and Google turn this on by default, making it de facto compulsory.
- cwhiz 6y ago
  Hate to say I told you so, but... https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-week-9-contact-tracing-bd747eaa-8fa1-4822-89bc-4e214c44a44d.html https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-week-9-contact... 66% of respondents said they would not use a contact tracing app developed by a tech company. The remaining 33% may give it a go before they find out how worthless it is and then it will likely settle into the same levels of adoption as Singapore. This is obvious to I guess everyone outside of HN and Silicon Valley.
  - bhupy 6y ago
    I'm not really sure what this proves. All it tells us is that majority of Americans will not download a contact tracing app. There is nothing stopping Apple and Google from rolling this out in the OS, and they've both confirmed that they intend to do this[1] "Later this year, Apple and Google will include the tool in software updates, meaning users can log contacts without having to download an app." They have every right to make it involuntary if they want to, and the only recourse users have is to decide to stop using iPhones or Androids. I'm sure there will be some people that choose to do that, but not nearly enough to keep adoption below the necessary 60%. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps-factbox/factbox-the-race-to-deploy-covid-19-contact-tracing-apps-idUSKBN22Q2KU https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps-f...

by cwhiz 6y ago

bhupy 6y ago

> That's out of ~330 million US citizens for a rate of ~76%. Toddlers, children, and poor teenagers are people that also exist and can be in a grocery store as asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus. I was generous and went with 80%. Okay sure, but nit-picking that number doesn't change the core argument: you only need 60% for contact tracing to work, according to the most recent research. Remember that the goal here isn't to ensure that NOBODY gets COVID, it's to drive R0 down to < 1. People in grocery stores will still be exposed, but if R0 < 1, then the disease will eventually die out. > Your second link is just a study that suggests contact tracing COULD work. But the fact that something could work in theory doesn't mean it will work in practice. I don't know where you got your 60% number from because that number isn't mentioned in that study. I don't think it matters anyway because we won't get anywhere near 60%. You need to read the full article before attempting to refute it, but I'll help you out. "The efficacy of contact tracing (the y axis of Fig. 3) is the square of the proportion of the population using the app, multiplied by the probability of the app detecting infectious contacts, multiplied by the fractional reduction in infectiousness resulting from being notified as a contact." I've taken a screenshot of the diagram for you: https://imgur.com/ZXPLLxk https://imgur.com/ZXPLLxk The solid black line shows the threshold for epidemic control. While you're right that the paper doesn't claim that it is CERTAIN to work, nobody is sure. In fact, it's odd to me that you are so positive that it WON'T work. "This has absolutely no chance of working in the US." Even scientists don't make claims like this with that level of comical confidence. > Singapore tried this idea and they made it voluntary just like it is being made voluntary in the US. 20-25% of people used it. Now they are trying to make it involuntary by forcing businesses to scan phones at entrances to businesses, schools, and healthcare facilities. Do you really think Americans will accept this? No way. I doubt the legality of this approach in the first place. > It would take Donald Trump signing a law to get to 60%. People want this to work because it makes them feel better. Reality has other ideas. Okay but what happens when Apple and Google build this into the operating system, and contact tracing is always on, like the bluetooth radio, the push notification service, or OS-level location services?

cwhiz 6y ago
> Okay but what happens when Apple and Google build this into the operating system, and contact tracing is always on, like the bluetooth radio, the push notification service, or OS-level location services? They aren’t doing this and have said that they never will. It will be purely voluntary. Are you even going to attempt to refute the absolute failure of this app in Singapore?
- bhupy 6y ago
  > They aren’t doing this and have said that they never will. It will be purely voluntary. You're really into the authoritative claims, aren't you? :) They seem to disagree with you: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps-factbox/factbox-the-race-to-deploy-covid-19-contact-tracing-apps-idUSKBN22Q2KU https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps-f... "Later this year, Apple and Google will include the tool in software updates, meaning users can log contacts without having to download an app." There is absolutely nothing preventing Apple & Google from turning this on for everyone, at least in the US. To the extent that they've said that they "never will", it's a glorified pinky promise. If it's economically in their best interests for R0 to drop down to < 1, then there is nothing structurally preventing them from rolling out OS updates with this on by default. > Are you even going to attempt to refute the absolute failure of this app in Singapore? It's irrelevant if Apple and Google turn this on by default, making it de facto compulsory.
cwhiz 6y ago
Hate to say I told you so, but... https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-week-9-contact-tracing-bd747eaa-8fa1-4822-89bc-4e214c44a44d.html https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-week-9-contact... 66% of respondents said they would not use a contact tracing app developed by a tech company. The remaining 33% may give it a go before they find out how worthless it is and then it will likely settle into the same levels of adoption as Singapore. This is obvious to I guess everyone outside of HN and Silicon Valley.
- bhupy 6y ago
  I'm not really sure what this proves. All it tells us is that majority of Americans will not download a contact tracing app. There is nothing stopping Apple and Google from rolling this out in the OS, and they've both confirmed that they intend to do this[1] "Later this year, Apple and Google will include the tool in software updates, meaning users can log contacts without having to download an app." They have every right to make it involuntary if they want to, and the only recourse users have is to decide to stop using iPhones or Androids. I'm sure there will be some people that choose to do that, but not nearly enough to keep adoption below the necessary 60%. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps-factbox/factbox-the-race-to-deploy-covid-19-contact-tracing-apps-idUSKBN22Q2KU https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps-f...