9 ms·

Tesla's batteries aim to rework the math for electric cars and the grid

83 points by hourislate 6y ago

zpeti 6y ago
Knowing the pace that Musk dictates I would love to know what else Tesla is working on or what the pipeline is. Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies could have caught up if they focused their efforts, but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch. The biggest risk is running into cashflow issues but I believe at the last report they had about 2 years worth of capital expenses in the bank, so this is also unlikely to be an issue.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Battery day for investors will supposedly show off cells that will experience only ~10% degradation over 1 million miles of wear (roughly 83 years of driving the average 12k miles/year an American drives), while also removing as much conflict cobalt as possible from the cell chemistry. Their autobidder software used at the Hornsdale Power Reserve for utility scale storage is in the process of being extended to allow Tesla to act as a virtual utility in the UK. Components of this are used in Sweden to provide Tesla owners with low cost power to charge their vehicles based on market pricing signals from the utility (charge when the cost of electricity is low or negative). Exciting times.
  - thoraway1010 6y ago
    Prices go negative because it's basically a grid control service at that point. You have a load you need to have taken, and are willing to pay someone to help you manage the grid.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      It's the other way around; prices go negative because you have too much power, not enough load, and you're paying someone to take that power because you can't curtail like solar or wind (perhaps you're a gas turbine or coal/nuclear generator that must run for frequency control purposes).
- thatfrenchguy 6y ago
  > but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch Are they really though ? You don't see Tesla being much more efficient than any other EVs so far ?
  - eyesee 6y ago
    Actually yes, they are noticeably more efficient than other electric vehicles in their class (similar weight and range). One example shows Tesla as 20% more efficient: Chevy Bolt: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml Tesla Model 3 Standard Range+: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml Here's a complete list: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml
    - semi-extrinsic 6y ago
      Comparing Model 3 vs Bolt on efficiency is just aerodynamics. A lower, longer car is of course more efficient than a taller, shorter one. The Hyundai Ioniq is a similarly shaped EV as the Model 3, and it gets very similar numbers - 133 MPGe (Ioniq) versus 141 MPGe for the best version of the Model 3 Standard Range, a difference that's smaller than going from 18 to 20 inch rims on the Model 3 Long Range Performance. It is essentially useless to compare cars that are within 10 MPGe of each other at 130+ MPGe. If your tires are slightly off optimal pressure, or you've left something heavy in the trunk, or you've chosen different rims than standard, you've lost more than this. God forbid if you've put on a roof rack, probably drops you 30 MPGe down to 100-ish. This discussion also underpins why MPG is a poor unit to measure efficiency with. The inverse measures used in Europe like L/100km or kWh/km are much easier to compare, as differences can be compared directly between a low and a high efficiency car
      - kube-system 6y ago
        I don't think many people realize that MPG is not a linear measure of fuel/energy consumption. https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg If an average driver (12,000mi/yr) switches from a 12 mpg car to a 15 mpg car, they save 200 gallons of gas per yr. If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 60 mpg car to a 63 mpg car, they save 10 gallons of gas per yr. If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 133 mpg car to a 141 mpg car, they save 5 gallons of gas per yr.
- Ididntdothis 6y ago
  “Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies could have caught up if they focused their efforts, but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch.“ Car companies have deep pockets and catching up is always easier than going first. I can’t think of many industries where the first mover was the winner. Usually it’s the second movers who succeed and gain dominance. Tesla is still bound by the law of physics and chemistry so what they do, others can do too.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
    And yet, even Volkswagen recently admitted that they only intend to follow Tesla on BEV, not lead them. Toyota has no skin in the game (they completely missed the switch to BEV), BMW and Daimler are unable to compete (even when they join force), etc. The deep pockets of the non-electric car companies are evaporating fast nowadays, they margins keep dropping while Tesla's increase. Things are moving quickly, and far too quickly for those who couldn't change while they were massively profiting from internal combustion engines.
    - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
      Toyota is still focusing on fuel cells, which, I think is dead for consumer cars, however I think makes sense in long distance travel for large vehicles (trailers, for example). I think the death of ICE manufacturers is overblown right now, pending a major increase in battery tech by Tesla, which would just be awesome - but Buying an electric car right now is not a financially smart move for most buyers. First, the biggest market in automotive, crossovers and SUVs, there are not any affordable options for electric vehicles. Even in the sedan segment, with gas so damn cheap, the Model 3 just isn't worth it if you care about saving money.
      - nickik 6y ago
        Fuel cells don't really win compared to gas. Its hard to see any adoption of them even in those areas. For utility vehicle the price matters very much, and hydrogen is not cheap. The ICE manufacturers are not gone die just like that for many years, however the question is, when they have all made the transition, what will the market share of Tesla be and who will they take it from. The problem for old manufactures is that they have a gigantic capital investment in things like engines. A lot of that investment has not been amortized. Switching to EV requires both a massive investment in redesigning all cars to be EVs, huge investment in retooling your manufacturing and a lots of margin if you don't build batteries. All that goes into your margin for EVs, and thus they are terrible for most automakers. So you are forced to sell a product that doesn't make much profit and requires a huge capital base, when you already have a huge capital base for producing marginally profitable ICE cars that are dropping in resale value quickly. I think I disagree with the point about finaces. Sure a cheap ICE car is better, but when buying an car comparable with a Tesla in price, I rather have the Tesla. Gas is cheap now, but power is still cheaper usually. Gas could be more expensive again for many reasons. In 5 years ICE car will have basically no resale value while EV should hold their value much better. All that said, buying a cheap ICE car with an efficient engine is the way to save money. Or use public transportation like me :)
- pmorici 6y ago
  Check out the Hyperchange YouTube channel it does a really really good job of following Tesla battery developments and has had a number of scoops that I haven't seen reported in the media. This article also seems to confuse Tesla's relationship with CATL and their efforts to research, develop and manufacture their own cells independent of their parties like Panasonic or CATL. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UEKbXQWlnM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UEKbXQWlnM [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUvmonUzkmE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUvmonUzkmE
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
    The Limiting Factor channel is even better (less marketing, more technical, with a huge focus on battery tech): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw And for reliable general reporting on Tesla, Tesla Daily is far better than HyperChange (who's far too hyperbolizing): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgYkuL87rUwiBl7tqfN53Eg https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgYkuL87rUwiBl7tqfN53Eg
    - pmorici 6y ago
      Agree those are also good.
eloff 6y ago
I would like to see the ability to use a Tesla as a Powerwall. A backup battery for the house of the grid goes down, and a way to smooth demand so I draw more on the grid when the price is low and less when the price is high. That of course would depend on your electric company, if they charge consumers variable rates. It would reduce the life of the batteries, but it would also save needing a Powerwall or a generator. It might complement rooftop solar well. It would be less useful if you use the vehicle to commute and it's parked at work all day. My parents live in a remote area and suffer frequent power outages. They'd love something like that.
- greendave 6y ago
  Nissan's Leaf has the ability to do this (V2G or V2H) and the devices needed to enable it are starting to become available[1]. It's a shame they're not more widespread though. A lot of 1st generation EVs are available secondhand for much less than the cost of a Tesla PowerWall, despite larger batteries. [1] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127590_nissan-leaf-as-home-energy-device-wallbox-will-soon-enable-it-in-the-u-s https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127590_nissan-leaf-as-...
- oh_sigh 6y ago
  For occasional power outages, it definitely makes sense. But what toll that would take on the batteries?
  - Retric 6y ago
    Not much. As car’s start hitting 300+ mile ranges battery lifespan is less about charge cycles than physical age. ~800+ charges X 300 miles = 240,000 miles.
- blacksmith_tb 6y ago
  Absolutely - the question is if it makes sense as a business move for Tesla, it would basically destroy the Powerwall as a product (though I am skeptical they sell a lot of them, compartively). And if they could also overcome the regulatory hurdles, electrical code is fairly strict (for good reason!) I have a roof full of PV I'd love to use during power outages, and a PHEV in the driveway I'd happily swap for a Tesla if they could connect the dots.
olivermarks 6y ago
Musk successfully achieved his three quarter of a bilion paycheck by keeping Tesla's stock price up during the biggest global depression in a hundred years. This is the sign of an insider financial genius. https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/tesla-s-musk-clears-last-hurdle-to-collect-706-million-award https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/tesla-s-musk-clear...
- mdorazio 6y ago
  Or completely irrational investors. Or both, I suppose.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
    Do you realize that Tesla has been hitting almost all its objectives in terms of production and operating margins? Check their slides from 2013 regarding battery production in 2020: https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g... The competition is simply not coming (most of them are actually going bankrupt, as we speak) and Tesla keeps delivering and improving its margins and cash position. What's irrational?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  Did he? He recently said the stock was too damn high, but I guess some investors only followed what Jeff Dahn has been working for the past few years (cf. what Reuters is just revealing but you can learn about his results elsewhere too). They expect Tesla's financials to keep improving thanks to price reduction and performance improvements, while competitors realize they haven't even started to dip their toes in EV technology. It might be too late for the rest of the industry, but this has nothing to do with the recent stock price (this is about battery technology and production ramp, something that very few journalists/analysts have covered correctly while Tesla kept increasing its lead).
  - olivermarks 6y ago
    I'd counter argue the reason Tesla stock remains so high is due to brilliant PR about 'aims' rather than actual performance. The carrot is always dangling for investors. It's genius that Tesla retains such a high stock price in the face of global realities, not least of which is the current US China trade war headwinds.
mrtweetyhack 6y ago
China is set to introduce their all new battery too, same chemistry. Haha
close04 6y ago
> With a global fleet of more than 1 million electric vehicles that are capable of connecting to and sharing power with the grid, Tesla’s goal is to achieve the status of a power company, competing with such traditional energy providers as Pacific Gas & Electric and Tokyo Electric Power. Is this an apples to apples comparison? Power generation, distribution, and storage are quite different aspects. And then there's also the fact that Tesla would manufacture the batteries but not own them. The battery is analogous to a fuel tank. When not used to power the car both can be used as an energy buffer as any car could be used as a source of electricity. This doesn't make any of the major car manufacturers "power companies". Is the statement coming from Musk/Tesla or is it Reuters' interpretation?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  >And then there's also the fact that Tesla would manufacture the batteries but not own them. This can be changed easily. Most Zoe owners lease their batteries from Renault and it might possible to set up a deal to share the revenues generated from the batteries. >This doesn't make any of the major car manufacturers "power companies". Is the statement coming from Musk/Tesla or is it Reuters' interpretation? Tesla has been working on that for years: https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/tesla-executive-hints-vehicles-will-soon-drive-the-grid-1.1899411 https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/tesla-executive-hints-v... More details in this well-researched video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPIpOB9dya8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPIpOB9dya8 (this channel is excellent BTW)
  - close04 6y ago
    > This can be changed easily Would this change the fact that they just manufacture the "vessel" not the contents, or distribute the contents from the source? I see this more as "democratizing power", giving people more flexibility, and indeed maybe even changing the way we use the grid. But it certainly wouldn't put Tesla in the same segment as companies like PG&E or TEPCO. Hard drive manufacturers are never considered "content companies" regardless of how they sell or lease the drives, and what content they store. And Toyota or VW are not considered oil companies even if their cars probably move more gas than many small ones.
dougmwne 6y ago
With gas prices what they are and likely to be there for the next few years, now is a great time for Tesla to hit purchase price cost-parity with ICE vehicles. Hopefully this new battery can deliver on that promise. In theory, we could look at total cost of ownership and say that a Tesla is a good buy, but unless the sticker price looks good there are plenty that will keep buying sub-$2 gas guzzlers.
- marvin 6y ago
  It's also lethally good for consolidating their lead in tech and manufacturing cost. Fossil car manufacturers have been given the apparent gift of lower gas prices, but this is really a curse in disguise. While fossil-fueled cars may now be a good cost proposition for a few years more, this means that there will be even less incentive for the established manufacturers to develop their EV programs. Meanwhile, Tesla keeps charging ahead, investing billions per year and iterating with feedback from three generations of vehicles in the field. Battery prices were dropping 14% per year even before Tesla's insane R&D programs. It won't stop. Assuming Tesla can stay somewhat profitable and don't hit any liquidity-induced catastrophes on the way, the established manufacturers will be in big trouble when the other shoe drops along with a possible oil price comeback in a few years. This has been two decades in the making, but everyone will still act surprised when EVs are suddenly the obviously best option.
neural_thing 6y ago
Brought to you by the people who promised 1 million robotaxis for this year. They just need to raise capital again. I wish for once they were just honest - need more cash because of the virus. Instead they are going to promise batteries that break the laws of physics.
- DanCarvajal 6y ago
  Honesty would cash their house of cards, can't have that.
aphextron 6y ago
It's rather disappointing that Tesla is still completely focused on the niche luxury market, though. The entire lineup of new models (Y, Roadster, Cybertruck) are still just expensive toys for the upper class. They could build a stripped down "Model 2" with a 60kWh pack right now for $25k MSRP and totally change the car buying equation for most new buyers in the US.
- rightnow 6y ago
  Without the upper class buying the "expensive toys" there wouldn't be a tesla at all or electric cars this faar advanced. So maybe think about that before shitting and saying its toys. It's an electric car.
- bogdanu 6y ago
  Even if they would release a 25k$ car in EU it would cost way too much due to taxes.
- cowmix 6y ago
  They are delivering as much value as fast as possible given X metrics. The cheapest Model 3 price is within the ASP of the average US car, and it is good value. As soon as they can do cheaper, they will.
  - aphextron 6y ago
    >The cheapest Model 3 price is within the ASP of the average US car, and it is good value. The average, sure. But nowhere near the median. Average prices in the US are heavily weighted by pickups and luxury sales. The median for new buyers is somewhere around $25k [0]. The cheapest Model 3 you can actually buy is still ~$40k without incentives. That's an $800 car payment - firmly in luxury territory. It won't be until the average joe can buy a 60kWh electric car for a $200 payment with a couple thousand down that EVs will go mainstream. At $80/kWh there's no reason Tesla couldn't do this right now. [0] https://www.concannonbc.com/how-much-does-a-typical-american-actually-pay-for-a-car/ https://www.concannonbc.com/how-much-does-a-typical-american...

83 points by hourislate 6y ago

Knowing the pace that Musk dictates I would love to know what else Tesla is working on or what the pipeline is. Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies could have caught up if they focused their efforts, but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch. The biggest risk is running into cashflow issues but I believe at the last report they had about 2 years worth of capital expenses in the bank, so this is also unlikely to be an issue.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Battery day for investors will supposedly show off cells that will experience only ~10% degradation over 1 million miles of wear (roughly 83 years of driving the average 12k miles/year an American drives), while also removing as much conflict cobalt as possible from the cell chemistry. Their autobidder software used at the Hornsdale Power Reserve for utility scale storage is in the process of being extended to allow Tesla to act as a virtual utility in the UK. Components of this are used in Sweden to provide Tesla owners with low cost power to charge their vehicles based on market pricing signals from the utility (charge when the cost of electricity is low or negative). Exciting times.
- thoraway1010 6y ago
  Prices go negative because it's basically a grid control service at that point. You have a load you need to have taken, and are willing to pay someone to help you manage the grid.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    It's the other way around; prices go negative because you have too much power, not enough load, and you're paying someone to take that power because you can't curtail like solar or wind (perhaps you're a gas turbine or coal/nuclear generator that must run for frequency control purposes).
thatfrenchguy 6y ago
> but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch Are they really though ? You don't see Tesla being much more efficient than any other EVs so far ?
- eyesee 6y ago
  Actually yes, they are noticeably more efficient than other electric vehicles in their class (similar weight and range). One example shows Tesla as 20% more efficient: Chevy Bolt: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42191.shtml Tesla Model 3 Standard Range+: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/42278.shtml Here's a complete list: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/byfuel/EV2020.shtml
  - semi-extrinsic 6y ago
    Comparing Model 3 vs Bolt on efficiency is just aerodynamics. A lower, longer car is of course more efficient than a taller, shorter one. The Hyundai Ioniq is a similarly shaped EV as the Model 3, and it gets very similar numbers - 133 MPGe (Ioniq) versus 141 MPGe for the best version of the Model 3 Standard Range, a difference that's smaller than going from 18 to 20 inch rims on the Model 3 Long Range Performance. It is essentially useless to compare cars that are within 10 MPGe of each other at 130+ MPGe. If your tires are slightly off optimal pressure, or you've left something heavy in the trunk, or you've chosen different rims than standard, you've lost more than this. God forbid if you've put on a roof rack, probably drops you 30 MPGe down to 100-ish. This discussion also underpins why MPG is a poor unit to measure efficiency with. The inverse measures used in Europe like L/100km or kWh/km are much easier to compare, as differences can be compared directly between a low and a high efficiency car
    - kube-system 6y ago
      I don't think many people realize that MPG is not a linear measure of fuel/energy consumption. https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg https://nudges.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/mpg-graph.jpg If an average driver (12,000mi/yr) switches from a 12 mpg car to a 15 mpg car, they save 200 gallons of gas per yr. If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 60 mpg car to a 63 mpg car, they save 10 gallons of gas per yr. If someone who drives the same distance switches from a 133 mpg car to a 141 mpg car, they save 5 gallons of gas per yr.
Ididntdothis 6y ago
“Perhaps 2-3 years ago legacy car companies could have caught up if they focused their efforts, but I think Tesla is so far ahead now they will be impossible to catch.“ Car companies have deep pockets and catching up is always easier than going first. I can’t think of many industries where the first mover was the winner. Usually it’s the second movers who succeed and gain dominance. Tesla is still bound by the law of physics and chemistry so what they do, others can do too.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  And yet, even Volkswagen recently admitted that they only intend to follow Tesla on BEV, not lead them. Toyota has no skin in the game (they completely missed the switch to BEV), BMW and Daimler are unable to compete (even when they join force), etc. The deep pockets of the non-electric car companies are evaporating fast nowadays, they margins keep dropping while Tesla's increase. Things are moving quickly, and far too quickly for those who couldn't change while they were massively profiting from internal combustion engines.
  - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
    Toyota is still focusing on fuel cells, which, I think is dead for consumer cars, however I think makes sense in long distance travel for large vehicles (trailers, for example). I think the death of ICE manufacturers is overblown right now, pending a major increase in battery tech by Tesla, which would just be awesome - but Buying an electric car right now is not a financially smart move for most buyers. First, the biggest market in automotive, crossovers and SUVs, there are not any affordable options for electric vehicles. Even in the sedan segment, with gas so damn cheap, the Model 3 just isn't worth it if you care about saving money.
    - nickik 6y ago
      Fuel cells don't really win compared to gas. Its hard to see any adoption of them even in those areas. For utility vehicle the price matters very much, and hydrogen is not cheap. The ICE manufacturers are not gone die just like that for many years, however the question is, when they have all made the transition, what will the market share of Tesla be and who will they take it from. The problem for old manufactures is that they have a gigantic capital investment in things like engines. A lot of that investment has not been amortized. Switching to EV requires both a massive investment in redesigning all cars to be EVs, huge investment in retooling your manufacturing and a lots of margin if you don't build batteries. All that goes into your margin for EVs, and thus they are terrible for most automakers. So you are forced to sell a product that doesn't make much profit and requires a huge capital base, when you already have a huge capital base for producing marginally profitable ICE cars that are dropping in resale value quickly. I think I disagree with the point about finaces. Sure a cheap ICE car is better, but when buying an car comparable with a Tesla in price, I rather have the Tesla. Gas is cheap now, but power is still cheaper usually. Gas could be more expensive again for many reasons. In 5 years ICE car will have basically no resale value while EV should hold their value much better. All that said, buying a cheap ICE car with an efficient engine is the way to save money. Or use public transportation like me :)
pmorici 6y ago
Check out the Hyperchange YouTube channel it does a really really good job of following Tesla battery developments and has had a number of scoops that I haven't seen reported in the media. This article also seems to confuse Tesla's relationship with CATL and their efforts to research, develop and manufacture their own cells independent of their parties like Panasonic or CATL. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB-yc-lVExw [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UEKbXQWlnM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UEKbXQWlnM [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUvmonUzkmE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUvmonUzkmE
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  The Limiting Factor channel is even better (less marketing, more technical, with a huge focus on battery tech): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIFn7ONIJHyC-lMnb7Fm_jw And for reliable general reporting on Tesla, Tesla Daily is far better than HyperChange (who's far too hyperbolizing): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgYkuL87rUwiBl7tqfN53Eg https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgYkuL87rUwiBl7tqfN53Eg
  - pmorici 6y ago
    Agree those are also good.

eloff 6y ago

I would like to see the ability to use a Tesla as a Powerwall. A backup battery for the house of the grid goes down, and a way to smooth demand so I draw more on the grid when the price is low and less when the price is high. That of course would depend on your electric company, if they charge consumers variable rates. It would reduce the life of the batteries, but it would also save needing a Powerwall or a generator. It might complement rooftop solar well. It would be less useful if you use the vehicle to commute and it's parked at work all day. My parents live in a remote area and suffer frequent power outages. They'd love something like that.

greendave 6y ago
Nissan's Leaf has the ability to do this (V2G or V2H) and the devices needed to enable it are starting to become available[1]. It's a shame they're not more widespread though. A lot of 1st generation EVs are available secondhand for much less than the cost of a Tesla PowerWall, despite larger batteries. [1] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127590_nissan-leaf-as-home-energy-device-wallbox-will-soon-enable-it-in-the-u-s https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127590_nissan-leaf-as-...
oh_sigh 6y ago
For occasional power outages, it definitely makes sense. But what toll that would take on the batteries?
- Retric 6y ago
  Not much. As car’s start hitting 300+ mile ranges battery lifespan is less about charge cycles than physical age. ~800+ charges X 300 miles = 240,000 miles.
blacksmith_tb 6y ago
Absolutely - the question is if it makes sense as a business move for Tesla, it would basically destroy the Powerwall as a product (though I am skeptical they sell a lot of them, compartively). And if they could also overcome the regulatory hurdles, electrical code is fairly strict (for good reason!) I have a roof full of PV I'd love to use during power outages, and a PHEV in the driveway I'd happily swap for a Tesla if they could connect the dots.

olivermarks 6y ago

Musk successfully achieved his three quarter of a bilion paycheck by keeping Tesla's stock price up during the biggest global depression in a hundred years. This is the sign of an insider financial genius. https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/tesla-s-musk-clears-last-hurdle-to-collect-706-million-award https://www.bloombergquint.com/technology/tesla-s-musk-clear...

mdorazio 6y ago
Or completely irrational investors. Or both, I suppose.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  Do you realize that Tesla has been hitting almost all its objectives in terms of production and operating margins? Check their slides from 2013 regarding battery production in 2020: https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/g... The competition is simply not coming (most of them are actually going bankrupt, as we speak) and Tesla keeps delivering and improving its margins and cash position. What's irrational?
rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
Did he? He recently said the stock was too damn high, but I guess some investors only followed what Jeff Dahn has been working for the past few years (cf. what Reuters is just revealing but you can learn about his results elsewhere too). They expect Tesla's financials to keep improving thanks to price reduction and performance improvements, while competitors realize they haven't even started to dip their toes in EV technology. It might be too late for the rest of the industry, but this has nothing to do with the recent stock price (this is about battery technology and production ramp, something that very few journalists/analysts have covered correctly while Tesla kept increasing its lead).
- olivermarks 6y ago
  I'd counter argue the reason Tesla stock remains so high is due to brilliant PR about 'aims' rather than actual performance. The carrot is always dangling for investors. It's genius that Tesla retains such a high stock price in the face of global realities, not least of which is the current US China trade war headwinds.

mrtweetyhack 6y ago

China is set to introduce their all new battery too, same chemistry. Haha

close04 6y ago

> With a global fleet of more than 1 million electric vehicles that are capable of connecting to and sharing power with the grid, Tesla’s goal is to achieve the status of a power company, competing with such traditional energy providers as Pacific Gas & Electric and Tokyo Electric Power. Is this an apples to apples comparison? Power generation, distribution, and storage are quite different aspects. And then there's also the fact that Tesla would manufacture the batteries but not own them. The battery is analogous to a fuel tank. When not used to power the car both can be used as an energy buffer as any car could be used as a source of electricity. This doesn't make any of the major car manufacturers "power companies". Is the statement coming from Musk/Tesla or is it Reuters' interpretation?

rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
>And then there's also the fact that Tesla would manufacture the batteries but not own them. This can be changed easily. Most Zoe owners lease their batteries from Renault and it might possible to set up a deal to share the revenues generated from the batteries. >This doesn't make any of the major car manufacturers "power companies". Is the statement coming from Musk/Tesla or is it Reuters' interpretation? Tesla has been working on that for years: https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/tesla-executive-hints-vehicles-will-soon-drive-the-grid-1.1899411 https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/tesla-executive-hints-v... More details in this well-researched video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPIpOB9dya8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPIpOB9dya8 (this channel is excellent BTW)
- close04 6y ago
  > This can be changed easily Would this change the fact that they just manufacture the "vessel" not the contents, or distribute the contents from the source? I see this more as "democratizing power", giving people more flexibility, and indeed maybe even changing the way we use the grid. But it certainly wouldn't put Tesla in the same segment as companies like PG&E or TEPCO. Hard drive manufacturers are never considered "content companies" regardless of how they sell or lease the drives, and what content they store. And Toyota or VW are not considered oil companies even if their cars probably move more gas than many small ones.

dougmwne 6y ago

With gas prices what they are and likely to be there for the next few years, now is a great time for Tesla to hit purchase price cost-parity with ICE vehicles. Hopefully this new battery can deliver on that promise. In theory, we could look at total cost of ownership and say that a Tesla is a good buy, but unless the sticker price looks good there are plenty that will keep buying sub-$2 gas guzzlers.

marvin 6y ago
It's also lethally good for consolidating their lead in tech and manufacturing cost. Fossil car manufacturers have been given the apparent gift of lower gas prices, but this is really a curse in disguise. While fossil-fueled cars may now be a good cost proposition for a few years more, this means that there will be even less incentive for the established manufacturers to develop their EV programs. Meanwhile, Tesla keeps charging ahead, investing billions per year and iterating with feedback from three generations of vehicles in the field. Battery prices were dropping 14% per year even before Tesla's insane R&D programs. It won't stop. Assuming Tesla can stay somewhat profitable and don't hit any liquidity-induced catastrophes on the way, the established manufacturers will be in big trouble when the other shoe drops along with a possible oil price comeback in a few years. This has been two decades in the making, but everyone will still act surprised when EVs are suddenly the obviously best option.

neural_thing 6y ago

Brought to you by the people who promised 1 million robotaxis for this year. They just need to raise capital again. I wish for once they were just honest - need more cash because of the virus. Instead they are going to promise batteries that break the laws of physics.

DanCarvajal 6y ago
Honesty would cash their house of cards, can't have that.

aphextron 6y ago

It's rather disappointing that Tesla is still completely focused on the niche luxury market, though. The entire lineup of new models (Y, Roadster, Cybertruck) are still just expensive toys for the upper class. They could build a stripped down "Model 2" with a 60kWh pack right now for $25k MSRP and totally change the car buying equation for most new buyers in the US.

rightnow 6y ago
Without the upper class buying the "expensive toys" there wouldn't be a tesla at all or electric cars this faar advanced. So maybe think about that before shitting and saying its toys. It's an electric car.
bogdanu 6y ago
Even if they would release a 25k$ car in EU it would cost way too much due to taxes.
cowmix 6y ago
They are delivering as much value as fast as possible given X metrics. The cheapest Model 3 price is within the ASP of the average US car, and it is good value. As soon as they can do cheaper, they will.
- aphextron 6y ago
  >The cheapest Model 3 price is within the ASP of the average US car, and it is good value. The average, sure. But nowhere near the median. Average prices in the US are heavily weighted by pickups and luxury sales. The median for new buyers is somewhere around $25k [0]. The cheapest Model 3 you can actually buy is still ~$40k without incentives. That's an $800 car payment - firmly in luxury territory. It won't be until the average joe can buy a 60kWh electric car for a $200 payment with a couple thousand down that EVs will go mainstream. At $80/kWh there's no reason Tesla couldn't do this right now. [0] https://www.concannonbc.com/how-much-does-a-typical-american-actually-pay-for-a-car/ https://www.concannonbc.com/how-much-does-a-typical-american...