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Correct about Sweden. We can compare Sweden to Switzerland (8.5 million vs 10 mil pop in Sweden). Switz has 1870 deaths, Sweden 3460. Sweden is far worse per ca

Correct about Sweden. We can compare Sweden to Switzerland (8.5 million vs 10 mil pop in Sweden). Switz has 1870 deaths, Sweden 3460. Sweden is far worse per capita than it's small northern euro neighbors too (actually deaths per million, Sweden, then Norway, Finland, Denmark are (343) and (42, 51, 92). IHME [1] estimates Sweden will have 5760 deaths, Switz 1935. Correcting for relative populations (10/8.5) Switz's 1935 * 10/8.5 = 2275 roughly expected. I'm not sure why people have seized on Sweden as doing it right, but they will kill about 3.5k extra people compared to Switz (excess deaths). Compared to their northern neighbors they about 8x worse. All this info at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ except projections. [1] https://covid19.healthdata.org/switzerland https://covid19.healthdata.org/switzerland

henrikschroder 6y ago
> I'm not sure why people have seized on Sweden as doing it right Sweden is one of the countries that have enacted the least strict measures, it's an outlier in strategy, and has therefore attracted a lot of attention from people wishing to use it as an example while arguing for their own strategy. According to the lockdown aficionados, Sweden is a zombie wasteland whose officials are gleefully sacrificing the elderly, while the nation's youth is cavorting on the streets spreading the virus indiscriminately, and in two weeks the death rate is going to spike, just you wait! Therefore, lockdowns are a necessity! According to the lockdown skeptics, Sweden is a bastion of freedom and liberty where it's business as usual, not a single restaurant or bar closed, all schools are open, and the streets are full of people enjoying life like normal. Sweden has a death rate similar to many European countries, therefore lockdowns are completely unnecessary! The truth is of course that both of these viewpoints are wrong, and most importantly, you can't assume that applying Sweden's strategy anywhere else would get the same results. But that doesn't stop people from cherrypicking exactly the stats they like in order to argue for the strategy they like. Also note that IHME has up until recently been absolutely, fantastically, horribly wrong in their projections for Sweden. Like many other comparison sites, they're using the reporting dates for deaths instead of the actual death dates. If you want better data for Sweden, please check out this site instead: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/ https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
- magicalhippo 6y ago
  It's also still early days. Norway has an order of magnitude fewer deaths than Sweden, despite otherwise being very similar countries. Yet randomized tests of citizens in Oslo, the capital and one of the hotbeds for COVID-19, show only ~2% had antibodies[1]. So we went into hard lockdown unlike Sweden, probably saved a lot of people initially, but what will happen now that we're opening the country again? [1]: https://www.nrk.no/norge/bare-to-av-hundre-med-antistoff-mot-korona-1.15007474 https://www.nrk.no/norge/bare-to-av-hundre-med-antistoff-mot...

henrikschroder 6y ago

> I'm not sure why people have seized on Sweden as doing it right Sweden is one of the countries that have enacted the least strict measures, it's an outlier in strategy, and has therefore attracted a lot of attention from people wishing to use it as an example while arguing for their own strategy. According to the lockdown aficionados, Sweden is a zombie wasteland whose officials are gleefully sacrificing the elderly, while the nation's youth is cavorting on the streets spreading the virus indiscriminately, and in two weeks the death rate is going to spike, just you wait! Therefore, lockdowns are a necessity! According to the lockdown skeptics, Sweden is a bastion of freedom and liberty where it's business as usual, not a single restaurant or bar closed, all schools are open, and the streets are full of people enjoying life like normal. Sweden has a death rate similar to many European countries, therefore lockdowns are completely unnecessary! The truth is of course that both of these viewpoints are wrong, and most importantly, you can't assume that applying Sweden's strategy anywhere else would get the same results. But that doesn't stop people from cherrypicking exactly the stats they like in order to argue for the strategy they like. Also note that IHME has up until recently been absolutely, fantastically, horribly wrong in their projections for Sweden. Like many other comparison sites, they're using the reporting dates for deaths instead of the actual death dates. If you want better data for Sweden, please check out this site instead: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/ https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

magicalhippo 6y ago
It's also still early days. Norway has an order of magnitude fewer deaths than Sweden, despite otherwise being very similar countries. Yet randomized tests of citizens in Oslo, the capital and one of the hotbeds for COVID-19, show only ~2% had antibodies[1]. So we went into hard lockdown unlike Sweden, probably saved a lot of people initially, but what will happen now that we're opening the country again? [1]: https://www.nrk.no/norge/bare-to-av-hundre-med-antistoff-mot-korona-1.15007474 https://www.nrk.no/norge/bare-to-av-hundre-med-antistoff-mot...