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Gas isn't expensive today. What's expensive today are almost all commodities. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ Thi

by jeromec 16y ago

Gas isn't expensive today. What's expensive today are almost all commodities. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ This is a systemic problem. Any valid explanation of price increases in a commodity, e.g., oil (gas), has to explain why prices are rising almost across the board. This is almost exactly the point the article is trying to explain: commodity prices are rising across the board in line with the commodities index, but why should there be an index at all? In the market you have the supplier, buyer, and consumer. The "speculator" was placed into the mix with a limited role for providing liquidity; this role was intentional and helpful since in the real world there could be a delay between the time a grower/supplier and buyer/cereal producer actually needed what the other had (raw material or cash); with the speculator there was always the opportunity to buy or sell. However, there were intentional, specific limits placed on the speculator. This was to ensure he couldn't corner the market and artificially skew prices. As long as these limits remained intact the market operated as designed, and the actual price of commodities reflected real world supply and demand (since the main players in the market were physical hedgers - people who actually had stake in/cared about the physical commodity). Goldman Sachs was able to get these "speculator handcuffs" removed. This means the actual market price for commodities doesn't necessarily reflect supply and demand. Rather, it also has the component of speculation priced into it. We can see this even within these last few days. The price of a barrel of oil was skyrocketing above $100; this seemed to make sense due to the unrest in the Middle East, then amazingly with the earthquake in Japan it quickly dropped below $100. In such as short time was there really an escalation then de-escalation in the demand for oil!? Of course not. The price was following speculation, people who are only in the market to make money. The end result is that ordinary consumers must pay at the pump what the whims of investors say, never mind progress made whether politically or technologically, or reductions by consumers in a recession to ease pressure on demand and oil prices. Natural gas is not as attractive to speculators as oil.

fauigerzigerk 16y ago
Don't forget that speculation works both ways. It can also bring down prices very quickly and consumers benefit from that. What speculation really does, in my view, is to insert a component of future expectations in addition to the current supply and demand effects. It is not entirely clear to me that adding this expectations component is always bad. It can get out of control when it becomes self feeding, but it can also convey valuable information that allows us to react early to fundamental supply and demand issues. We clearly have fundamental supply issues in crude oil and in agricultural products. The blog post is totally wrong on that one. Pointing to falling US demand of crude oil makes no sense in a world where the marginal buyer is in Asia.
- jeromec 16y ago
  Don't forget that speculation works both ways. It can also bring down prices very quickly and consumers benefit from that. That's like me expecting you to say "thanks" for returning an item I took from you when it's speculation which helped drive up prices in the first place. What speculation really does, in my view, is to insert a component of future expectations in addition to the current supply and demand effects. That's exactly what it does. Why do we need that? It is not entirely clear to me that adding this expectations component is always bad. It can get out of control when it becomes self feeding, but it can also convey valuable information that allows us to react early to fundamental supply and demand issues. React early and do what? This isn't like hurricane preparedness. Again, the point the article is trying to convey is that prices don't reflect supply and demand. We experience sky rocketing gas prices but no longer see gas shortage or rationing lines. In 2008 we had significantly more people go hungry from food shortages, although nothing has changed about wheat farming except, if anything, farmers producing it more efficiently. The wheat harvest that year was the most bountiful the world had ever seen.
  - fauigerzigerk 16y ago
    I think we need a component of future expectations in prices because it increases incentives and provides funding for averting real future shortages.
    - jeromec 16y ago
      I think we need a component of future expectations in prices because it increases incentives I'm extremely wary of the term "increased incentives" in light of recent events sparked by this model on Wall St. and provides funding for averting real future shortages. We just don't see gas lines to support that argument. Edit: And what do you mean "provides funding" anyway? Speculative contracts don't raise oil producing levels, nor stockpile oil (as our Strategic Reserve does). The extra money which exists is all used up by the speculators playing the game.
      - fauigerzigerk 16y ago
RickHull 16y ago
Note: That wall o' text makes it hard to pick out your key points. > The "speculator" was placed into the mix with a limited role for providing liquidity This makes no sense. Who did the placing? Every market has speculators, and even end-user-buyers base their decisions in some part on speculation. The speculator has no altruistic diktat to provide liquidity. The speculator is there to make money, and providing liquidity is a side-effect. i.e. the speculator wants to take on a position, but can only do this if someone else wants to exit a position -- thus making a trade. The seller's interests are served just as much as the buyer's. Now, there is a clear issue with cornering the market. However, there is a natural check to this behavior, in that taking delivery of millions of barrels of oil is expensive. And if you have no intrinsic need to consume a commodity, then it is very expensive to sit on. If supply is indeed artificially constricted by hoarding speculators, they will need to sell off their supply at some point.
- jeromec 16y ago
  >This makes no sense. Who did the placing? Every market has speculators, and even end-user-buyers base their decisions in some part on speculation. Did you read the article? These buyers and sellers of real stuff are the physical hedgers. The FDR administration recognized, however, that in order for the market to properly function, there needed to exist another kind of player - the speculator. The entire purpose of the speculator, as originally envisioned by the people who designed this market, was to guarantee that the physical hedgers, the real players, could always have a place to buy and/or sell their products. >The speculator is there to make money, and providing liquidity is a side-effect. Yes, speculators making money is fine. The liquidity side-effect is the reason to allow for some speculation in regulations. > If supply is indeed artificially constricted by hoarding speculators, they will need to sell off their supply at some point. Yes, that's why, as I said, consumers are subject to volatile price swings from investors, rather than steadier prices which would more accurately reflect supply and demand.
  - RickHull 16y ago
    > The FDR administration recognized, however, that in order for the market to properly function, there needed to exist another kind of player - the speculator. The entire purpose of the speculator, as originally envisioned ... My point is that free and open markets attract participants who exercise their self-interest. There is no central authority saying "you are the buyer", "you are the seller", and "you are the speculator". Speculation is an inherent property in any market participant. So-called "speculators" are merely those having no larger interests (i.e. taking delivery and consumption). In a split-second, a "real player" can become a speculator, if he sees a market opportunity and takes on a position for which he never intends to take delivery. The point is, identifying who is a speculator and attempting to limit those activities is extremely difficult, because speculation is all about internal motivation, and central authorities have no real insight as to an individual's motivation. I applaud FDR for not trying to prevent speculation, but I seriously doubt any capability for injecting speculation via "placement".

by jeromec 16y ago

fauigerzigerk 16y ago

Don't forget that speculation works both ways. It can also bring down prices very quickly and consumers benefit from that. What speculation really does, in my view, is to insert a component of future expectations in addition to the current supply and demand effects. It is not entirely clear to me that adding this expectations component is always bad. It can get out of control when it becomes self feeding, but it can also convey valuable information that allows us to react early to fundamental supply and demand issues. We clearly have fundamental supply issues in crude oil and in agricultural products. The blog post is totally wrong on that one. Pointing to falling US demand of crude oil makes no sense in a world where the marginal buyer is in Asia.

jeromec 16y ago
Don't forget that speculation works both ways. It can also bring down prices very quickly and consumers benefit from that. That's like me expecting you to say "thanks" for returning an item I took from you when it's speculation which helped drive up prices in the first place. What speculation really does, in my view, is to insert a component of future expectations in addition to the current supply and demand effects. That's exactly what it does. Why do we need that? It is not entirely clear to me that adding this expectations component is always bad. It can get out of control when it becomes self feeding, but it can also convey valuable information that allows us to react early to fundamental supply and demand issues. React early and do what? This isn't like hurricane preparedness. Again, the point the article is trying to convey is that prices don't reflect supply and demand. We experience sky rocketing gas prices but no longer see gas shortage or rationing lines. In 2008 we had significantly more people go hungry from food shortages, although nothing has changed about wheat farming except, if anything, farmers producing it more efficiently. The wheat harvest that year was the most bountiful the world had ever seen.
- fauigerzigerk 16y ago
  I think we need a component of future expectations in prices because it increases incentives and provides funding for averting real future shortages.
  - jeromec 16y ago
    I think we need a component of future expectations in prices because it increases incentives I'm extremely wary of the term "increased incentives" in light of recent events sparked by this model on Wall St. and provides funding for averting real future shortages. We just don't see gas lines to support that argument. Edit: And what do you mean "provides funding" anyway? Speculative contracts don't raise oil producing levels, nor stockpile oil (as our Strategic Reserve does). The extra money which exists is all used up by the speculators playing the game.
    - fauigerzigerk 16y ago

RickHull 16y ago

Note: That wall o' text makes it hard to pick out your key points. > The "speculator" was placed into the mix with a limited role for providing liquidity This makes no sense. Who did the placing? Every market has speculators, and even end-user-buyers base their decisions in some part on speculation. The speculator has no altruistic diktat to provide liquidity. The speculator is there to make money, and providing liquidity is a side-effect. i.e. the speculator wants to take on a position, but can only do this if someone else wants to exit a position -- thus making a trade. The seller's interests are served just as much as the buyer's. Now, there is a clear issue with cornering the market. However, there is a natural check to this behavior, in that taking delivery of millions of barrels of oil is expensive. And if you have no intrinsic need to consume a commodity, then it is very expensive to sit on. If supply is indeed artificially constricted by hoarding speculators, they will need to sell off their supply at some point.

jeromec 16y ago
>This makes no sense. Who did the placing? Every market has speculators, and even end-user-buyers base their decisions in some part on speculation. Did you read the article? These buyers and sellers of real stuff are the physical hedgers. The FDR administration recognized, however, that in order for the market to properly function, there needed to exist another kind of player - the speculator. The entire purpose of the speculator, as originally envisioned by the people who designed this market, was to guarantee that the physical hedgers, the real players, could always have a place to buy and/or sell their products. >The speculator is there to make money, and providing liquidity is a side-effect. Yes, speculators making money is fine. The liquidity side-effect is the reason to allow for some speculation in regulations. > If supply is indeed artificially constricted by hoarding speculators, they will need to sell off their supply at some point. Yes, that's why, as I said, consumers are subject to volatile price swings from investors, rather than steadier prices which would more accurately reflect supply and demand.
- RickHull 16y ago
  > The FDR administration recognized, however, that in order for the market to properly function, there needed to exist another kind of player - the speculator. The entire purpose of the speculator, as originally envisioned ... My point is that free and open markets attract participants who exercise their self-interest. There is no central authority saying "you are the buyer", "you are the seller", and "you are the speculator". Speculation is an inherent property in any market participant. So-called "speculators" are merely those having no larger interests (i.e. taking delivery and consumption). In a split-second, a "real player" can become a speculator, if he sees a market opportunity and takes on a position for which he never intends to take delivery. The point is, identifying who is a speculator and attempting to limit those activities is extremely difficult, because speculation is all about internal motivation, and central authorities have no real insight as to an individual's motivation. I applaud FDR for not trying to prevent speculation, but I seriously doubt any capability for injecting speculation via "placement".