I lived in Hawaii and surfed there for some time. I had a conversation with a well known shaper (surfboard maker) about this and some of the things which went

I lived in Hawaii and surfed there for some time. I had a conversation with a well known shaper (surfboard maker) about this and some of the things which went on on the North Shore. He said : "In your 20's you try a bunch of stuff and you don't die. So you think you can get away with it. Most of the time, you don't die. Then as you get into your 40's the law of probabilities catches up with you and your either die or have a near-death experience, and then you back way-the-hell off". I.E. the probability of a serious problem is moderate to small, but you can have long runs of winning at dice. But eventually, unless you change, it will get you. Several famous people have gotten this message, including Jack Johnson (who was on the trajectory as a pro surfer before he became a musician - incident at pipe). Jamie O'Brian, etc.