3 ms·

> "What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm." That's a misrepresentation. Bo

> "What continues to shock me about HN is how many people seem to think there's a choice between casualties and economic harm." That's a misrepresentation. Both sides understand that economic harm is guaranteed. The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties. Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but, being HNers, we can afford to weather the storm; the majority are not so fortunate. And even I don't think that the US can afford to have the quarantine last much longer than another month or two. I don't think the 1918 pandemic is necessarily good guidance for that since households were more self-sufficient then.

dragonwriter 7y ago
> Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but, being HNers, we can afford to weather the storm; the majority are not so fortunate. Polls show the vast majority of the population supports extending shelter-in-place, and (in polls where it gets broken out) that that support is stronger among the lower economic strata. Opposition, though weak everywhere, is stronger among people who worry about how their investment portfolio is doing. Some examples: https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/press-release/poll-8-in-10-americans-favor-strict-shelter-in-place-orders-to-limit-coronavirus-spread-and-most-say-they-could-continue-to-obey-such-orders-for-another-month-or-longer/ https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/press-release/poll-... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/despite-scattered-protests-most-americans-support-shelter-in-place-reuters-ipsos-poll-shows-idUSKCN22336P https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/despite... https://www.chcf.org/blog/covid-19-tracking-poll-75-californians-support-shelter-place-as-long-as-needed/ https://www.chcf.org/blog/covid-19-tracking-poll-75-californ...
- ThrowawayR2 7y ago
  I don't disagree with any of that and, again personally, I hope the poll numbers stay that favorable. Nothing would delight me more than the public behaving in a sensible fashion. However, I also don't think the economic impact has truly started to bite into enough of the population hard enough yet. It will be interesting to see where those polls sit in a couple of months.
- ardy42 7y ago
  > Polls show the vast majority of the population supports extending shelter-in-place, and (in polls where it gets broken out) that that support is stronger among the lower economic strata. Which totally makes sense to me. Those with lower economic status have less power, so if they want to shelter-in-place they have greater need for a government order to provide cover for their decision.
motohagiography 7y ago
I'm personally in favour of incremental re-openings in stages because today's tech and ability to co-ordinate gives us real data on their impact. There is a legitimate concern that the longer a hard lockdown/quarantine goes, the more ethically thorny it gets because authorities inadvertently accumulate the responsibility to prioritize the selective distribution of relief under the lockdown. That's when you get the revolts you're seeing in states today by people who are taking family losses and seeing them given to those they perceive as politically privileged groups. True or not, that perception is what drives people into the streets to protest.
carapace 7y ago
There are no "both sides" to a virus. > The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties. The question is how to mitigate the harms.
mcguire 7y ago
"The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties." The "casualties" are not the extent of the economic harm. Suppose a relaxing of the "quarantine" is followed by another large wave of cases, leading to panic, social unrest, and an emergency imposition of a more serious quarantine? As for me, I'm one of the at-risk populations; me and my wallet are mostly staying home for the foreseeable future. If that causes any economic harm, I'm sorry. But I would appreciate being able to get groceries (and book shipments) in the duration.

dragonwriter 7y ago

> Personally, like most of HN, I'm fine with extending the quarantine but, being HNers, we can afford to weather the storm; the majority are not so fortunate. Polls show the vast majority of the population supports extending shelter-in-place, and (in polls where it gets broken out) that that support is stronger among the lower economic strata. Opposition, though weak everywhere, is stronger among people who worry about how their investment portfolio is doing. Some examples: https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/press-release/poll-8-in-10-americans-favor-strict-shelter-in-place-orders-to-limit-coronavirus-spread-and-most-say-they-could-continue-to-obey-such-orders-for-another-month-or-longer/ https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/press-release/poll-... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/despite-scattered-protests-most-americans-support-shelter-in-place-reuters-ipsos-poll-shows-idUSKCN22336P https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/despite... https://www.chcf.org/blog/covid-19-tracking-poll-75-californians-support-shelter-place-as-long-as-needed/ https://www.chcf.org/blog/covid-19-tracking-poll-75-californ...

ThrowawayR2 7y ago
I don't disagree with any of that and, again personally, I hope the poll numbers stay that favorable. Nothing would delight me more than the public behaving in a sensible fashion. However, I also don't think the economic impact has truly started to bite into enough of the population hard enough yet. It will be interesting to see where those polls sit in a couple of months.
ardy42 7y ago
> Polls show the vast majority of the population supports extending shelter-in-place, and (in polls where it gets broken out) that that support is stronger among the lower economic strata. Which totally makes sense to me. Those with lower economic status have less power, so if they want to shelter-in-place they have greater need for a government order to provide cover for their decision.

motohagiography 7y ago

I'm personally in favour of incremental re-openings in stages because today's tech and ability to co-ordinate gives us real data on their impact. There is a legitimate concern that the longer a hard lockdown/quarantine goes, the more ethically thorny it gets because authorities inadvertently accumulate the responsibility to prioritize the selective distribution of relief under the lockdown. That's when you get the revolts you're seeing in states today by people who are taking family losses and seeing them given to those they perceive as politically privileged groups. True or not, that perception is what drives people into the streets to protest.

carapace 7y ago

There are no "both sides" to a virus. > The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties. The question is how to mitigate the harms.

mcguire 7y ago

"The question is when the economic harm of quarantine-caused business collapses and job losses exceeds the economic harm of casualties." The "casualties" are not the extent of the economic harm. Suppose a relaxing of the "quarantine" is followed by another large wave of cases, leading to panic, social unrest, and an emergency imposition of a more serious quarantine? As for me, I'm one of the at-risk populations; me and my wallet are mostly staying home for the foreseeable future. If that causes any economic harm, I'm sorry. But I would appreciate being able to get groceries (and book shipments) in the duration.