If the virus disappears tomorrow, the airline industry would take many months to return to its previous patterns and volumes. But the virus will not disappear

If the virus disappears tomorrow, the airline industry would take many months to return to its previous patterns and volumes. But the virus will not disappear tomorrow. It will be with us for at least a year, probably two. Other pathogens will follow. Passengers and airfreight will not return to 2019 volumes in the foreseeable future. That means fewer flights, smaller planes, point-to-point instead of hub-and-spoke. Short hops will fall even more than long-haul as people trade flying for driving. The airline industry is inherently mal-configured for this new world, and cannot be profitable with even 20% less volume. So the airline industry cannot, and should not, survive in its present form. But Boeing and the dinosaur carriers can't manage the re-configuration on their own because they'll keep trying to re-invent the past. We'll trade a few massive, lethargic, inefficient and customer-hostile megacorps for many more small, nimble, innovative, clever and customer-focused niche players. Bankruptcy, liquidation, and reorganization of the underlying assets by new entrants is the only way. Transferring even more billions of borrowed government money to the dinosaurs only delays the inevitable.