We had 3k reported cases, not 3k cases. That's a large difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of cases from 3/14 was hundreds of thousands. T

We had 3k reported cases, not 3k cases. That's a large difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of cases from 3/14 was hundreds of thousands. There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases. However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28. By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K). This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.