4 ms·

To be fair, is this a big deal statistically? I have surfed for a very long time and I've never heard of this. Am I just ignorant and this is not uncommon (pres

To be fair, is this a big deal statistically? I have surfed for a very long time and I've never heard of this. Am I just ignorant and this is not uncommon (presumably in areas/conditions I don't surf in)? Or is this just some sort of freak occurrence? Unless this is much more common than I believe I think we really should just file this under "really bad luck" and move on and focus on the more statistically dangerous problems surfing. I mean I guess we can all think to ourselves "deep foam can be a dangerous", but I wonder if anyone given that message would ever end up saved by it given how unusual (my assumption) it is.

reason-mr 6y ago
I lived in Hawaii and surfed there for some time. I had a conversation with a well known shaper (surfboard maker) about this and some of the things which went on on the North Shore. He said : "In your 20's you try a bunch of stuff and you don't die. So you think you can get away with it. Most of the time, you don't die. Then as you get into your 40's the law of probabilities catches up with you and your either die or have a near-death experience, and then you back way-the-hell off". I.E. the probability of a serious problem is moderate to small, but you can have long runs of winning at dice. But eventually, unless you change, it will get you. Several famous people have gotten this message, including Jack Johnson (who was on the trajectory as a pro surfer before he became a musician - incident at pipe). Jamie O'Brian, etc.
- CogitoCogito 6y ago
  I don't see how any of this contradicts my point. If the probability of something like this occurring is extremely small, then why focus on it over other much more likely problems? Is this foam issue a statistical fluke? If so, then no, it won't eventually get you. At least not until the huge number of other things get you first.

reason-mr 6y ago

I lived in Hawaii and surfed there for some time. I had a conversation with a well known shaper (surfboard maker) about this and some of the things which went on on the North Shore. He said : "In your 20's you try a bunch of stuff and you don't die. So you think you can get away with it. Most of the time, you don't die. Then as you get into your 40's the law of probabilities catches up with you and your either die or have a near-death experience, and then you back way-the-hell off". I.E. the probability of a serious problem is moderate to small, but you can have long runs of winning at dice. But eventually, unless you change, it will get you. Several famous people have gotten this message, including Jack Johnson (who was on the trajectory as a pro surfer before he became a musician - incident at pipe). Jamie O'Brian, etc.

CogitoCogito 6y ago
I don't see how any of this contradicts my point. If the probability of something like this occurring is extremely small, then why focus on it over other much more likely problems? Is this foam issue a statistical fluke? If so, then no, it won't eventually get you. At least not until the huge number of other things get you first.