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I think you're right but I give him credit for drawing attention to a big issue that everyone else is ignoring which is Japan's diminished production capacity (

I think you're right but I give him credit for drawing attention to a big issue that everyone else is ignoring which is Japan's diminished production capacity (rather than focusing on the doomsday meltdown scenarios most of the media are fixated on). Even if they return to service eventually there's going to be downtime. That's going to force Japan to use more fossil fuels which will drive up the price (even more). Add a spike in oil costs to the loss of japanese economic output and I think our modest economic recovery just hit a big snag.

djcapelis 16y ago
This is absolutely true. It will take time to online the other units at the other plants that automatically shut down too. These things don't come up and down on a whim.
MichaelApproved 16y ago
Oil isn't used to make electricity. The major options are nat gas and coal. This disaster will likely drive DOWN oil prices since Japan will likely need less of it in the short term.
- stevefarnworth 16y ago
  I'm sorry? Oil isn't used to make electricity Oil is used in some types of power station, and the markets are already reacting to not only the increased demand, but due to the infrastructure damage in the north of the country, the fact it'll be harder than ever to get it delivered. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110312-700945.html http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110312-700945.html
  - MichaelApproved 16y ago
    I initially assumed that Japans energy gneration profile was similar to the US where it's almost all coal and LNG which is why I didn't think it would impact the oil market as much. A bit of googling gave me this article which states that oil is actually more popular than coal. http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/energy_electricity/electric_power_sources/index.html http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/energy_electricity/electric_po... I still wonder if their demand will go up since a lot of the infrastructure is damaged and unusable. But if it does go up, chances are they'll need more fuel oil.
- wisty 16y ago
  Small generators, like the kinds you use for emergency backup power, often run on oil.
  - MichaelApproved 16y ago
    My point was regarding large scale power plants that would have a major affect on the market. Still, it turns out that oil based power plants are far more popular than I knew earlier.
- gonzo 16y ago
  maybe not in Japan, but here in Hawaii, oil is used to make electricity.
neutronicus 16y ago
A meltdown is also not a doomsday event - the main bad things that happen are that the reactor goes out of service and that you have to somehow scrape a bunch of nuclear reactor slag off the bottom of the containment vessel.
drawkbox 16y ago
That goes for the nuclear reactors and the oil refineries. There will definitely be a slow down and that will mean more external sources will be needed short-term, right during summer, where oil prices skyrocket.
ars 16y ago
I think it may be some time before Japan is fully back up and running, so their energy usage may be lower for a while.

djcapelis 16y ago

This is absolutely true. It will take time to online the other units at the other plants that automatically shut down too. These things don't come up and down on a whim.

MichaelApproved 16y ago

Oil isn't used to make electricity. The major options are nat gas and coal. This disaster will likely drive DOWN oil prices since Japan will likely need less of it in the short term.

stevefarnworth 16y ago
I'm sorry? Oil isn't used to make electricity Oil is used in some types of power station, and the markets are already reacting to not only the increased demand, but due to the infrastructure damage in the north of the country, the fact it'll be harder than ever to get it delivered. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110312-700945.html http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110312-700945.html
- MichaelApproved 16y ago
  I initially assumed that Japans energy gneration profile was similar to the US where it's almost all coal and LNG which is why I didn't think it would impact the oil market as much. A bit of googling gave me this article which states that oil is actually more popular than coal. http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/energy_electricity/electric_power_sources/index.html http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/energy_electricity/electric_po... I still wonder if their demand will go up since a lot of the infrastructure is damaged and unusable. But if it does go up, chances are they'll need more fuel oil.
wisty 16y ago
Small generators, like the kinds you use for emergency backup power, often run on oil.
- MichaelApproved 16y ago
  My point was regarding large scale power plants that would have a major affect on the market. Still, it turns out that oil based power plants are far more popular than I knew earlier.
gonzo 16y ago
maybe not in Japan, but here in Hawaii, oil is used to make electricity.

neutronicus 16y ago

A meltdown is also not a doomsday event - the main bad things that happen are that the reactor goes out of service and that you have to somehow scrape a bunch of nuclear reactor slag off the bottom of the containment vessel.

drawkbox 16y ago

That goes for the nuclear reactors and the oil refineries. There will definitely be a slow down and that will mean more external sources will be needed short-term, right during summer, where oil prices skyrocket.

ars 16y ago

I think it may be some time before Japan is fully back up and running, so their energy usage may be lower for a while.