At least for Illinois, models predicted that a May 1 reopening would lead to a very large second peak in June with high probability. See e.g. https://www.chicag

At least for Illinois, models predicted that a May 1 reopening would lead to a very large second peak in June with high probability. See e.g. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi.... It's more than 2-week lag time due to the time required for R_0 to increase (due to people's habits), a number of generations required to noticed, and the general lag time of the issues.