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The goal is drastically cut down both deaths and hospitalizations. There are various estimates for how to get to herd immunity, 50% of population has to have it

The goal is drastically cut down both deaths and hospitalizations. There are various estimates for how to get to herd immunity, 50% of population has to have it, up to 75%. The current estimates for how many people die ranges from 0.3% (3/1000) to 0.5%. A lot more end up in the hospital, perhaps 5-10x more than those who die, I don't have as good a number for this. [1] has good info. 330 million * 50% * 0.005 = 825k die. 5-10x in the hospital is 4 million to 8 million. Those are big impacts. Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? 1. IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

throwaway122378 6y ago
IHME’s projections have been extremely inaccurate so you can’t take that one and throw it out
- throwaway122378 6y ago
  Downvoted for the truth? What is this Reddit? Go look at all of IHME’s predictions and the actual numbers. Way off.
DuskStar 6y ago
> Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? The argument re: old/sick people is a combination of "these people have fewer years left to live anyways, making deaths less impactful" and "this is a smaller subset of the population that can be isolated while the rest are set free".
alexbanks 6y ago
It's probably not the best use of time to cite data referencing 300 million people spread across almost 4 million square miles. Each state, and really each county, is its own unique circumstance/set of data.
subsubzero 6y ago
Since there are no wide scale antibody testing in most of the US due to lack of coordination/faulty health system perhaps we can look at closed systems to ascertain the true death rate. Looking at Lompac prison it appears that 70% of the inmates have tested positive for covid-19 [1]. If the remainder of the inmates are tested, a somewhat accurate death rate can be found. I feel like the only people that should quarantine should be pre-existing medical conditions and the very old, but want to see hard data to back this up, interesting info from the linked article, "The vast majority of positive individuals report minor or no symptoms" I don't know how soon from positive test to infection these cases are as well as the age distribution at the prison but this should be looked at regardless. [1] https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14804 https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14804
deleted 6y ago
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qwe098cube 6y ago
It's not only a question about how many have to get it to reach herd immunity but also how long this will take. 3 months in lockdown won't cut it and there is no vaccine available in 3 months. > Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? No, they are most vulnerable and should therefor treated differently than other groups that are not. They also don't tend to work. Considering that ~20%-50% of covid deaths are nursing home residents, protecting them should be priority, not shutting it all down in hope it will dry up over the next 3 months, it won't.

throwaway122378 6y ago

IHME’s projections have been extremely inaccurate so you can’t take that one and throw it out

throwaway122378 6y ago
Downvoted for the truth? What is this Reddit? Go look at all of IHME’s predictions and the actual numbers. Way off.

DuskStar 6y ago

> Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? The argument re: old/sick people is a combination of "these people have fewer years left to live anyways, making deaths less impactful" and "this is a smaller subset of the population that can be isolated while the rest are set free".

alexbanks 6y ago

It's probably not the best use of time to cite data referencing 300 million people spread across almost 4 million square miles. Each state, and really each county, is its own unique circumstance/set of data.

subsubzero 6y ago

Since there are no wide scale antibody testing in most of the US due to lack of coordination/faulty health system perhaps we can look at closed systems to ascertain the true death rate. Looking at Lompac prison it appears that 70% of the inmates have tested positive for covid-19 [1]. If the remainder of the inmates are tested, a somewhat accurate death rate can be found. I feel like the only people that should quarantine should be pre-existing medical conditions and the very old, but want to see hard data to back this up, interesting info from the linked article, "The vast majority of positive individuals report minor or no symptoms" I don't know how soon from positive test to infection these cases are as well as the age distribution at the prison but this should be looked at regardless. [1] https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14804 https://beta.trimread.com/articles/14804

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

qwe098cube 6y ago

It's not only a question about how many have to get it to reach herd immunity but also how long this will take. 3 months in lockdown won't cut it and there is no vaccine available in 3 months. > Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them? No, they are most vulnerable and should therefor treated differently than other groups that are not. They also don't tend to work. Considering that ~20%-50% of covid deaths are nursing home residents, protecting them should be priority, not shutting it all down in hope it will dry up over the next 3 months, it won't.