4 ms·

The minute this disease hit the US, 0.3% of the population was immediately living on borrowed time. The goal of the lockdowns was to keep that 0.3% from rising

The minute this disease hit the US, 0.3% of the population was immediately living on borrowed time. The goal of the lockdowns was to keep that 0.3% from rising to 3% because of overwhelmed medical services. For most of the country it's worked, but there's nothing you can do to save the 0.3%, and inciting the country to riot is only going to add to the toll.

eganist 6y ago
> For most of the country it's worked Do you have something that reinforces this? JHU dashboard data extrapolation (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map) and revised models (https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-predict-doubling-deaths-early-june.html https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-pred...) starkly disagree.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  Check out IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america. They currently estimate 145k but it swings as states open or close. If people mill about and it doesn't stop till we reach herd immunity, imagine at 50% of pop, 0.3 or 0.5% die, that's a big number 330mil * .05 * 0.005 = 825k deaths. IHME estimates assume we won't just keep standing around until half of us get it. The fools walking around are competing with that vision.
- panzagl 6y ago
  Ok, did not realize national hadn't leveled out, so I take back 'most'. I feel like my state's (CO) re-opening response is appropriate but we've been relatively 'flat' for a couple weeks. Apparently we're also one of the few states that can afford a Tableau license, we've had a decent site https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data since March.
maxerickson 6y ago
There's multiple promising therapeutic treatments going through high quality studies and vaccines aren't impossible. Why so defeatist? Also, there's mounting evidence that social distancing is being done socially (by people making their own choices) as much or more than by governments.
- panzagl 6y ago
  It's not defeatist- vaccines and treatments take time, implementing contact tracing takes time. But pushing for unrealistic outcomes is just going to lead to distrust and lack of preparation for the next event when they inevitably fail.

eganist 6y ago

> For most of the country it's worked Do you have something that reinforces this? JHU dashboard data extrapolation (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map) and revised models (https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-predict-doubling-deaths-early-june.html https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-pred...) starkly disagree.

NotSammyHagar 6y ago
Check out IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america. They currently estimate 145k but it swings as states open or close. If people mill about and it doesn't stop till we reach herd immunity, imagine at 50% of pop, 0.3 or 0.5% die, that's a big number 330mil * .05 * 0.005 = 825k deaths. IHME estimates assume we won't just keep standing around until half of us get it. The fools walking around are competing with that vision.
panzagl 6y ago
Ok, did not realize national hadn't leveled out, so I take back 'most'. I feel like my state's (CO) re-opening response is appropriate but we've been relatively 'flat' for a couple weeks. Apparently we're also one of the few states that can afford a Tableau license, we've had a decent site https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data since March.

maxerickson 6y ago

There's multiple promising therapeutic treatments going through high quality studies and vaccines aren't impossible. Why so defeatist? Also, there's mounting evidence that social distancing is being done socially (by people making their own choices) as much or more than by governments.

panzagl 6y ago
It's not defeatist- vaccines and treatments take time, implementing contact tracing takes time. But pushing for unrealistic outcomes is just going to lead to distrust and lack of preparation for the next event when they inevitably fail.