4 ms·

I have found getting accurate data to be very difficult. I saw one chart which allegedly mapped the effect of the lockdown over four weeks with various various

I have found getting accurate data to be very difficult. I saw one chart which allegedly mapped the effect of the lockdown over four weeks with various various indexes: COVID - significant drop. Death from other medical items - even more significant drop. Death from traffic accidents - even moreso. Number of deaths from suicide - significant jump. From drug overdose - even more significant jump. Number of mental breakdowns and newly diagnosed illnesses - jump. Number of deaths from people not getting care they needed - jump. I cannot find that chart anymore, and when I tried to verify the items, I could not. Anyone who knows the chart I am referring to, or generally reliably sources for these things (and not just COVID deaths), please reply!

notyourday 6y ago
If we keep everyone locked up all the time all kinds of deaths will drop!
- sam_goody 6y ago
  But if the deaths from suicide, drug overdose, delayed medical care, ulcers and other stress related sicknesses, and abuse are enough, they will offset those numbers. If the drop into poverty as people lose jobs create slums, gangs, and muggings, there will be a lot more deaths, and those will also offset the numbers. So, even quality of life aside, I am not sure we come out ahead even on saving lives. I would like data though, since anyone can speculate. Can someone point to real data?
  - creaghpatr 6y ago
    >But if the deaths from suicide, drug overdose, delayed medical care, ulcers and other stress related sicknesses, and abuse are enough, they will offset those numbers Not if they get counted as a COVID death. You better believe that drug overdose death is getting a test if there's federal reimbursement in play.
  - jddj 6y ago
    It's a common speculation, but employment (and recreation, regular life, going outdoors) actually kills a lot of people. Every % rise of unemployment in Europe during the financial crisis resulted in a 3.5% drop in all cause mortality, and that includes a ~35% increase in suicides. We can probably extrapolate that for a scenario where business as usual also kills a good amount more people due to a pandemic. Clearly the US, being the US, could be different due to cultural differences in how the poor and underemployed are treated. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743514001224 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009174351...
- exmadscientist 6y ago
  > all kinds I recognize that you're making a joke here, but that's categorically not true. Mental-health related deaths have gone up, and will continue to go up. A lot.
  - notyourday 6y ago
    We could always lock everyone up in individual units, with no means to suicide because we would control all the tools they get access to for their own safety, and they can get two meals a day delivered to their door. The delivery person puts the ration down, rings a bell and steps away. The person inside a unit picks up their ration. And we can arrange for people to volunteer to help with making those rations and deliveries -- they would want to get out of their unit for an hour a day, so they can be productive during that hour. Ok, i'm only being mildly sarcastic. Flashbacks from stories told by a grandfather and father. Honestly, if someone told me last year I would be typing this in a discussion on HN on this topic I would have told them they were insane. And here we are, people on HN actually discussing "stay at home" as if it was a not a big deal. These are the people who work for Google and Facebook and Instagram and Twitter? It horrifies me. It should terrify the population.

notyourday 6y ago

If we keep everyone locked up all the time all kinds of deaths will drop!

sam_goody 6y ago
But if the deaths from suicide, drug overdose, delayed medical care, ulcers and other stress related sicknesses, and abuse are enough, they will offset those numbers. If the drop into poverty as people lose jobs create slums, gangs, and muggings, there will be a lot more deaths, and those will also offset the numbers. So, even quality of life aside, I am not sure we come out ahead even on saving lives. I would like data though, since anyone can speculate. Can someone point to real data?
- creaghpatr 6y ago
  >But if the deaths from suicide, drug overdose, delayed medical care, ulcers and other stress related sicknesses, and abuse are enough, they will offset those numbers Not if they get counted as a COVID death. You better believe that drug overdose death is getting a test if there's federal reimbursement in play.
- jddj 6y ago
  It's a common speculation, but employment (and recreation, regular life, going outdoors) actually kills a lot of people. Every % rise of unemployment in Europe during the financial crisis resulted in a 3.5% drop in all cause mortality, and that includes a ~35% increase in suicides. We can probably extrapolate that for a scenario where business as usual also kills a good amount more people due to a pandemic. Clearly the US, being the US, could be different due to cultural differences in how the poor and underemployed are treated. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743514001224 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009174351...
exmadscientist 6y ago
> all kinds I recognize that you're making a joke here, but that's categorically not true. Mental-health related deaths have gone up, and will continue to go up. A lot.
- notyourday 6y ago
  We could always lock everyone up in individual units, with no means to suicide because we would control all the tools they get access to for their own safety, and they can get two meals a day delivered to their door. The delivery person puts the ration down, rings a bell and steps away. The person inside a unit picks up their ration. And we can arrange for people to volunteer to help with making those rations and deliveries -- they would want to get out of their unit for an hour a day, so they can be productive during that hour. Ok, i'm only being mildly sarcastic. Flashbacks from stories told by a grandfather and father. Honestly, if someone told me last year I would be typing this in a discussion on HN on this topic I would have told them they were insane. And here we are, people on HN actually discussing "stay at home" as if it was a not a big deal. These are the people who work for Google and Facebook and Instagram and Twitter? It horrifies me. It should terrify the population.