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The reference is to all the spring break parties taking place two months ago https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-beaches-packed-despite-

The reference is to all the spring break parties taking place two months ago https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-beaches-packed-despite-coronavirus-fears-as-spring-break-arrives/ https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-... Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.

fullstop 6y ago
> Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place. How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
slg 6y ago
People on spring break are mostly young and the people they interact with while on spring break are mostly young. You would probably need to look at contacts two or three degrees away from them to notice the spike. Has there been an in depth analysis of the extended network of those people?
- prostoalex 6y ago
  But even that has a policy implication that stay-at-home order can exempt people of certain age.
  - slg 6y ago
    IANAL, but I imagine a stay-at-home order that is based on age would result in constitutional challenges.
    - tick_tock_tick 6y ago
      It's unlikely the current orders would survive any court scrutiny.
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        Where are the emergency injunctions, then?
        harambaebae69 6y ago
        Alameda backed off elon musk pretty fast, probably because they had little legal footing https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-musk-wins-battle-with-alameda-county-tesla-factory-allowed-to-reopen/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-m...
  - greglindahl 6y ago
    If a young person goes to a nursing home and infects everyone, is it not connected to spring break unless the old people went to spring break? Keep in mind that the young person might be a medical worker, or in the family of a medical worker.
ceejayoz 6y ago
On 3/14 we had about 3k COVID-19 cases in the US. By the end of April, we had about 200k. Our contact tracing efforts at the time (and now) likely aren't sufficient to tie specific cases back to Florida's spring break, but it's unlikely to have helped.
- pashamur 6y ago
  We had 3k reported cases, not 3k cases. That's a large difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of cases from 3/14 was hundreds of thousands. There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases. However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28. By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K). This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.
mistersquid 6y ago
> it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US and certainly wasn't during the weeks of US Spring Break (ca. mid-Mar)? In any case, you are mistaken that "we have not seen the spike take place". [0] See, especially, the map "generated by Tectonix GEO and X-Mode Social" about 1/3 of the way down the page. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-c...
- prostoalex 6y ago
  > What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US Plane tickets were bought, credit card spending took place, cell phone towers were pinged, hotel reservations had names linked to them, relatives, friends or colleagues aware of the whereabouts and can be interviewed post-mortem? For what it's worth, they're able to pinpoint specific parties or night club performances https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identifies-at-least-5-coronavirus-cases-from-single-birthday-party/ https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identif... https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-mayors-birthday-bash-at-trump-golf-club-leaves-partygoers-with-coronavirus/ https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-...
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
eloff 6y ago
We had a big spike in Quebec after spring break as people returned from Florida and France. The province is still the worst in Canada. BC took note and advised people not to travel for spring break (our break here is later). BC is doing very well by comparison.
- makomk 6y ago
  I'd be a lot more worried about the people returning from France than Florida, they've had a pretty major outbreak.

fullstop 6y ago

> Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place. How would we know? They are spread across the nation.

slg 6y ago

People on spring break are mostly young and the people they interact with while on spring break are mostly young. You would probably need to look at contacts two or three degrees away from them to notice the spike. Has there been an in depth analysis of the extended network of those people?

prostoalex 6y ago
But even that has a policy implication that stay-at-home order can exempt people of certain age.
- slg 6y ago
  IANAL, but I imagine a stay-at-home order that is based on age would result in constitutional challenges.
  - tick_tock_tick 6y ago
    It's unlikely the current orders would survive any court scrutiny.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      Where are the emergency injunctions, then?
      - harambaebae69 6y ago
        Alameda backed off elon musk pretty fast, probably because they had little legal footing https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-musk-wins-battle-with-alameda-county-tesla-factory-allowed-to-reopen/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-m...
- greglindahl 6y ago
  If a young person goes to a nursing home and infects everyone, is it not connected to spring break unless the old people went to spring break? Keep in mind that the young person might be a medical worker, or in the family of a medical worker.

ceejayoz 6y ago

On 3/14 we had about 3k COVID-19 cases in the US. By the end of April, we had about 200k. Our contact tracing efforts at the time (and now) likely aren't sufficient to tie specific cases back to Florida's spring break, but it's unlikely to have helped.

pashamur 6y ago
We had 3k reported cases, not 3k cases. That's a large difference. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of cases from 3/14 was hundreds of thousands. There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases. However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28. By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K). This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.

mistersquid 6y ago

> it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US and certainly wasn't during the weeks of US Spring Break (ca. mid-Mar)? In any case, you are mistaken that "we have not seen the spike take place". [0] See, especially, the map "generated by Tectonix GEO and X-Mode Social" about 1/3 of the way down the page. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-c...

prostoalex 6y ago
> What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US Plane tickets were bought, credit card spending took place, cell phone towers were pinged, hotel reservations had names linked to them, relatives, friends or colleagues aware of the whereabouts and can be interviewed post-mortem? For what it's worth, they're able to pinpoint specific parties or night club performances https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identifies-at-least-5-coronavirus-cases-from-single-birthday-party/ https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identif... https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-mayors-birthday-bash-at-trump-golf-club-leaves-partygoers-with-coronavirus/ https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-...
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

eloff 6y ago

We had a big spike in Quebec after spring break as people returned from Florida and France. The province is still the worst in Canada. BC took note and advised people not to travel for spring break (our break here is later). BC is doing very well by comparison.

makomk 6y ago
I'd be a lot more worried about the people returning from France than Florida, they've had a pretty major outbreak.