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The goal is to stabilize the infection rate and boost healthcare capacity so that some semblance of normality can be resumed without overwhelming the healthcare

The goal is to stabilize the infection rate and boost healthcare capacity so that some semblance of normality can be resumed without overwhelming the healthcare system. > a lockdown for such a long time is crazy. And people will rebel, and the infection rate will spike yet again, and people will die, and the lockdowns will be imposed with force. Better to listen and understand than to disobey and risk worse. What's the expression? Regulations are written with blood?

floren 6y ago
> the lockdowns will be imposed with force. "Comply or be killed" will be an interesting order, I look forward to seeing that one go out.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  As much as cops may like to escalate right to the shooting at times, there are a lot of possible levels of force before being shot. Civil tickets. Revocation of business licenses. Fines. Arrests. Tear gas.
  - int_19h 6y ago
    In this particular case, the prevailing political affiliation among cops is more likely to push them in the other direction, e.g.: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-places-cop-on-leave-over-viral-video-discouraging-enforcement-of-states-anti-coronavirus-measures/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-pl...
- bitwize 6y ago
  And to minimize the exposure risk to our boys in blue, we'll put ED-209s on every street corner.
  - mixmastamyk 6y ago
    I’d buy THAT for a dollar!
  - int_19h 6y ago
    Singapore is already testing a Boston Dynamics bot to, basically, yell at people violating lockdown.
Klonoar 6y ago
A nitpick, but I fear that we're not boosting the healthcare capacity... whether due to healthcare still being profit-seeking here, or due to the Fed Govt being completely inept. In which case it's easy to feel like it's all for nothing. I personally still support it but I can see why people are frustrated, and I think as this goes on you can't just extend it without some really clear and transparent communication.
gruez 6y ago
> The goal is to stabilize the infection rate and boost healthcare capacity so that some semblance of normality can be resumed without overwhelming the healthcare system. meanwhile... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  Yeah, wish we had used them, and not wasted the potential /s
- thisiszilff 6y ago
  Everytime someone posts something along these lines I am reminded how difficult it is to get a sense of exponential growth & how the gap between needing them, not needing them, being overwhelmed, having this blow over is a smaller than it intuitively feels.
trhway 6y ago
>people will rebel, and the infection rate will spike yet again that is unknown. If anything, the flu experience shows that the hot dry air minimizes transmission by minimizing the lifetime of the exhaled aerosol mini droplets which carry the virus. The rate will most probably spike again in the Fall, lockdown or no lockdown, because of the colder moist air then, and I think it is very misleading to promise people the lockdown avoidance later in exchange for a larger lockdown now. Governments at all levels seem to be doing only lockdown, which basically means doing nothing by the governments themselves and just putting the burden squarely on the people shoulders and waiting hoping that the issue resolves on its own. Where are the true government actions to fight pandemic - i mean at least bare minimum - masks, testing, contact tracing? Why Whole Foods, not the government, should give away free masks? I guess, no money for masks in the $6T dollars that have just been printed and have propelled the stock market back into the bubble.
- Ididntdothis 6y ago
  “Where are the true government actions to fight pandemic - i mean at least bare minimum - masks, testing, contact tracing?” Very true. There should be no shortages of tests, masks or other protective equipment. Instead the stock market is going up.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  right, that's why no one in Australia or Israel or other hot countries got it, like India. But that was a sarcastic comment. It is spreading in hot places. It's a lot more reducing exposure that limits it than hot weather, based on reality, not magical thinking.
  - lbeltrame 6y ago
    So far all I've seen on this topic are mostly models. I'd love some experimental data for once (with regards to SARS-CoV-2, a lot is modeling, and a lot less is bench work) to know if this is true or not (there are a few studies but most of them aren't that great, at least the ones I've read).
panzagl 6y ago
The minute this disease hit the US, 0.3% of the population was immediately living on borrowed time. The goal of the lockdowns was to keep that 0.3% from rising to 3% because of overwhelmed medical services. For most of the country it's worked, but there's nothing you can do to save the 0.3%, and inciting the country to riot is only going to add to the toll.
- eganist 6y ago
  > For most of the country it's worked Do you have something that reinforces this? JHU dashboard data extrapolation (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map) and revised models (https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-predict-doubling-deaths-early-june.html https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-pred...) starkly disagree.
  - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
    Check out IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america. They currently estimate 145k but it swings as states open or close. If people mill about and it doesn't stop till we reach herd immunity, imagine at 50% of pop, 0.3 or 0.5% die, that's a big number 330mil * .05 * 0.005 = 825k deaths. IHME estimates assume we won't just keep standing around until half of us get it. The fools walking around are competing with that vision.
  - panzagl 6y ago
    Ok, did not realize national hadn't leveled out, so I take back 'most'. I feel like my state's (CO) re-opening response is appropriate but we've been relatively 'flat' for a couple weeks. Apparently we're also one of the few states that can afford a Tableau license, we've had a decent site https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data since March.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  There's multiple promising therapeutic treatments going through high quality studies and vaccines aren't impossible. Why so defeatist? Also, there's mounting evidence that social distancing is being done socially (by people making their own choices) as much or more than by governments.

floren 6y ago

> the lockdowns will be imposed with force. "Comply or be killed" will be an interesting order, I look forward to seeing that one go out.

ceejayoz 6y ago
As much as cops may like to escalate right to the shooting at times, there are a lot of possible levels of force before being shot. Civil tickets. Revocation of business licenses. Fines. Arrests. Tear gas.
- int_19h 6y ago
  In this particular case, the prevailing political affiliation among cops is more likely to push them in the other direction, e.g.: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-places-cop-on-leave-over-viral-video-discouraging-enforcement-of-states-anti-coronavirus-measures/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-pl...
bitwize 6y ago
And to minimize the exposure risk to our boys in blue, we'll put ED-209s on every street corner.
- mixmastamyk 6y ago
  I’d buy THAT for a dollar!
- int_19h 6y ago
  Singapore is already testing a Boston Dynamics bot to, basically, yell at people violating lockdown.

Klonoar 6y ago

A nitpick, but I fear that we're not boosting the healthcare capacity... whether due to healthcare still being profit-seeking here, or due to the Fed Govt being completely inept. In which case it's easy to feel like it's all for nothing. I personally still support it but I can see why people are frustrated, and I think as this goes on you can't just extend it without some really clear and transparent communication.

gruez 6y ago

> The goal is to stabilize the infection rate and boost healthcare capacity so that some semblance of normality can be resumed without overwhelming the healthcare system. meanwhile... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056

NotSammyHagar 6y ago
Yeah, wish we had used them, and not wasted the potential /s
thisiszilff 6y ago
Everytime someone posts something along these lines I am reminded how difficult it is to get a sense of exponential growth & how the gap between needing them, not needing them, being overwhelmed, having this blow over is a smaller than it intuitively feels.

trhway 6y ago

>people will rebel, and the infection rate will spike yet again that is unknown. If anything, the flu experience shows that the hot dry air minimizes transmission by minimizing the lifetime of the exhaled aerosol mini droplets which carry the virus. The rate will most probably spike again in the Fall, lockdown or no lockdown, because of the colder moist air then, and I think it is very misleading to promise people the lockdown avoidance later in exchange for a larger lockdown now. Governments at all levels seem to be doing only lockdown, which basically means doing nothing by the governments themselves and just putting the burden squarely on the people shoulders and waiting hoping that the issue resolves on its own. Where are the true government actions to fight pandemic - i mean at least bare minimum - masks, testing, contact tracing? Why Whole Foods, not the government, should give away free masks? I guess, no money for masks in the $6T dollars that have just been printed and have propelled the stock market back into the bubble.

Ididntdothis 6y ago
“Where are the true government actions to fight pandemic - i mean at least bare minimum - masks, testing, contact tracing?” Very true. There should be no shortages of tests, masks or other protective equipment. Instead the stock market is going up.
NotSammyHagar 6y ago
right, that's why no one in Australia or Israel or other hot countries got it, like India. But that was a sarcastic comment. It is spreading in hot places. It's a lot more reducing exposure that limits it than hot weather, based on reality, not magical thinking.
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  So far all I've seen on this topic are mostly models. I'd love some experimental data for once (with regards to SARS-CoV-2, a lot is modeling, and a lot less is bench work) to know if this is true or not (there are a few studies but most of them aren't that great, at least the ones I've read).

panzagl 6y ago

The minute this disease hit the US, 0.3% of the population was immediately living on borrowed time. The goal of the lockdowns was to keep that 0.3% from rising to 3% because of overwhelmed medical services. For most of the country it's worked, but there's nothing you can do to save the 0.3%, and inciting the country to riot is only going to add to the toll.

eganist 6y ago
> For most of the country it's worked Do you have something that reinforces this? JHU dashboard data extrapolation (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map) and revised models (https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-predict-doubling-deaths-early-june.html https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-pred...) starkly disagree.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  Check out IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america. They currently estimate 145k but it swings as states open or close. If people mill about and it doesn't stop till we reach herd immunity, imagine at 50% of pop, 0.3 or 0.5% die, that's a big number 330mil * .05 * 0.005 = 825k deaths. IHME estimates assume we won't just keep standing around until half of us get it. The fools walking around are competing with that vision.
- panzagl 6y ago
  Ok, did not realize national hadn't leveled out, so I take back 'most'. I feel like my state's (CO) re-opening response is appropriate but we've been relatively 'flat' for a couple weeks. Apparently we're also one of the few states that can afford a Tableau license, we've had a decent site https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data since March.
maxerickson 6y ago
There's multiple promising therapeutic treatments going through high quality studies and vaccines aren't impossible. Why so defeatist? Also, there's mounting evidence that social distancing is being done socially (by people making their own choices) as much or more than by governments.