Considering that the estimated population fatality rate in Bergamo Province is ~0.6 percent (from e.g. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.200670

Considering that the estimated population fatality rate in Bergamo Province is ~0.6 percent (from e.g. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v...), either the IFR there must be much higher than elsewhere (maybe an older sicklier population or something)? or ~50-60% of the province must have been infected. I am interested in the predictions of herd immunity from mass agent-based simulations, such as the CityCOVID model used by modelers at Argonne national lab (can't really find a good public reference and the slide deck I've seen about it is not public, but it's based on https://github.com/Repast/chiSIM https://github.com/Repast/chiSIM).