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But the Fed QE from '08 didn't make it back if I understand it correctl...I think we managed to unwound about a quarter or a third (?) of the outstanding debt b

But the Fed QE from '08 didn't make it back if I understand it correctl...I think we managed to unwound about a quarter or a third (?) of the outstanding debt before this crisis hit and the Fed had to issue new QE all over again. I'm not sure I understand what's stopping the Fed from buying back these loans that it issued? If it can't for some reason, what's stopping Congress or the states from creating "banks" to buy it back? Didn't people say before '08 that inflation was caused by the money supply, and then we did QE, and inflation didn't happen? So now they're saying inflation is tied to velocity, or M1 vs. M2?

tenpies 6y ago
> But the Fed QE from '08 didn't make it back if I understand it correctl...I think we managed to unwound about a quarter or a third (?) of the outstanding debt before this crisis hit and the Fed had to issue new QE all over again. I disagree. We never unwound and all that stimulus did come back, but only in things that people wanted: healthcare, education, real estate, and stock prices. Things that were discretionary like air travel and electronics were stuck and have generally stayed there in nominal dollars. We will see this again. The best lie the Fed ever created was to convince people that you have to see inflation everywhere for it to be real inflation. It would be very hard to achieve the sort of 1930s German inflation, or a Zimbawean scenario. What you'll see is that your food costs 50% of your income and rent is the other 50%. Social programs will either be cut or become ineffective, as more of the government's budget is devoted to servicing debt.
- vkou 6y ago
  Given how little labour goes into making food (~3% of the population feeds the other 97%), and how low the margins on farming and food distribution are, inflation or not, your food will not start costing 50% of your income. What's actually going to happen is that food, air travel, and cars will remain cheap, while investments, like stocks, houses, etc, will rise in price. That's the direct consequence of QE.

tenpies 6y ago

> But the Fed QE from '08 didn't make it back if I understand it correctl...I think we managed to unwound about a quarter or a third (?) of the outstanding debt before this crisis hit and the Fed had to issue new QE all over again. I disagree. We never unwound and all that stimulus did come back, but only in things that people wanted: healthcare, education, real estate, and stock prices. Things that were discretionary like air travel and electronics were stuck and have generally stayed there in nominal dollars. We will see this again. The best lie the Fed ever created was to convince people that you have to see inflation everywhere for it to be real inflation. It would be very hard to achieve the sort of 1930s German inflation, or a Zimbawean scenario. What you'll see is that your food costs 50% of your income and rent is the other 50%. Social programs will either be cut or become ineffective, as more of the government's budget is devoted to servicing debt.

vkou 6y ago
Given how little labour goes into making food (~3% of the population feeds the other 97%), and how low the margins on farming and food distribution are, inflation or not, your food will not start costing 50% of your income. What's actually going to happen is that food, air travel, and cars will remain cheap, while investments, like stocks, houses, etc, will rise in price. That's the direct consequence of QE.