4 ms·

It will be interesting to see how this finally plays out. Initially the BBC were downplaying the body count and there was little acknowledgement of the fataliti

It will be interesting to see how this finally plays out. Initially the BBC were downplaying the body count and there was little acknowledgement of the fatalities in care homes. Only the Sunday Times (?) was reporting a total, based on their own research, that was significantly higher than other media outlets. Now all the newspapers seem onboard with the idea that the final total will be much, much higher than officially reported. The BBC was somewhat late in arriving at this position.

drcongo 6y ago
The BBC's headline on their top story on the day after we (UK) became the highest official death toll in Europe was "Coronavirus: Italy death toll tops 30,000, highest in EU" [1] They've been a propaganda machine for the tories since the day Laura Kuenssberg took over as political editor, and as long as she's in charge they should be considered among the least trustworthy news sources in the UK. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52594570 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52594570 Edit: Clarifying that by "we" I meant "the UK"
- matthewfelgate 6y ago
  Absolute tin hat stuff mate.
  - drcongo 6y ago
    So, the BBC's top story when the UK became the highest death toll in Europe was about Italy being the highest death toll in the EU, and you think that's non-partisan news? I wish I was as blissfully credulous.
    - buggeryorkshire 6y ago
      Are we comparing apples with apples here? I get confused about the stats. Originally the dailies were deaths in hospitals, then it changed. So the question is - is the 30k vs 50k comparable? Are they measured in the same way?
      - drcongo 6y ago
        This 50k number is derived from expected deaths vs actual deaths. Italy's 30k is their reported deaths, which is still smaller than the UK's reported deaths, but I think you might be missing the tiny qualifier in the BBC headline, "highest in the EU" vs "highest in Europe".
      - hyko 6y ago
        No. The 50k number refers to “excess deaths”, which is the portion of “all cause mortality” above what you’d expect this time of year.
    - matthewfelgate 6y ago
      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52549860 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52549860 BBC headline "Coronavirus: UK death toll passes Italy to be highest in Europe"
      - drcongo 6y ago
        Are you deliberately not reading my post to try to appear clever? This wasn't the top story, the Italy one was. Mate.
DiffEq 6y ago
Since Sweden is acting as a control group we know that the lock downs have very little meaningful effect; if they do, they are certainly not worth the cost. So we need to protect the most vulnerable by isolating them (the old and sick) and the rest of us need to get back to work. The total death toll will be whatever the total death toll will be at this point. Focusing on it doesn't help anything right now.
- hyko 6y ago
  I can’t stress this enough: Sweden is not acting as a control group. Every nation on Earth is restricting freedoms in some way, on a continuum, including Sweden. Even if Sweden is used in a future study, we wouldn’t know the cost benefit outcome of a lockdown for years anyway. A true control group would enact no policy changes and be a size and composition that matches the country you’re interested in.
  - DiffEq 6y ago
    So...what you are saying is that we don't know if the lock down is working...so then, if science is our guide, why are we doing it? Also - no matter, who will die from this will die. Our hospitals are not overwhelmed so those needing help will get it. We should take our wallops up front instead of this way - it will be cheaper in the long run in every way (this includes preventing the depression related suicides that will inevitable come from a full on economic depression).
    - hyko 6y ago
      Why are we doing it? The same reason we don’t try to eat a year’s worth of meals in one day: we simply couldn’t handle it. The modelling and current experience indicate that hospitals would be overwhelmed relatively quickly. The only real argument against that is if natural herd immunity has already been achieved; seems unlikely at this stage, but we’ll know either way once credible seroprevalence studies are completed. A “lockdown” is a Fabian (or “rope-a-dope”) strategy: we avoid getting our assess kicked until the balance of power shifts in our favor, at which point we stage a massively devastating counterattack. In the context of COVID-19, that means safe and effective treatments, and/or universal vaccination. “Getting our wallops” upfront would likely involve a severe economic contraction, as millions of people are removed from economic activity by illness, death, and ultimately fear of the two. Even Sweden is projected to suffer a severe economic contraction, partly due to the global trading conditions and the openness of their economy, but also partly because fear of COVID-19 is sapping domestic demand.

drcongo 6y ago

The BBC's headline on their top story on the day after we (UK) became the highest official death toll in Europe was "Coronavirus: Italy death toll tops 30,000, highest in EU" [1] They've been a propaganda machine for the tories since the day Laura Kuenssberg took over as political editor, and as long as she's in charge they should be considered among the least trustworthy news sources in the UK. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52594570 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52594570 Edit: Clarifying that by "we" I meant "the UK"

matthewfelgate 6y ago
Absolute tin hat stuff mate.
- drcongo 6y ago
  So, the BBC's top story when the UK became the highest death toll in Europe was about Italy being the highest death toll in the EU, and you think that's non-partisan news? I wish I was as blissfully credulous.
  - buggeryorkshire 6y ago
    Are we comparing apples with apples here? I get confused about the stats. Originally the dailies were deaths in hospitals, then it changed. So the question is - is the 30k vs 50k comparable? Are they measured in the same way?
    - drcongo 6y ago
      This 50k number is derived from expected deaths vs actual deaths. Italy's 30k is their reported deaths, which is still smaller than the UK's reported deaths, but I think you might be missing the tiny qualifier in the BBC headline, "highest in the EU" vs "highest in Europe".
    - hyko 6y ago
      No. The 50k number refers to “excess deaths”, which is the portion of “all cause mortality” above what you’d expect this time of year.
  - matthewfelgate 6y ago
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52549860 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52549860 BBC headline "Coronavirus: UK death toll passes Italy to be highest in Europe"
    - drcongo 6y ago
      Are you deliberately not reading my post to try to appear clever? This wasn't the top story, the Italy one was. Mate.

DiffEq 6y ago

Since Sweden is acting as a control group we know that the lock downs have very little meaningful effect; if they do, they are certainly not worth the cost. So we need to protect the most vulnerable by isolating them (the old and sick) and the rest of us need to get back to work. The total death toll will be whatever the total death toll will be at this point. Focusing on it doesn't help anything right now.

hyko 6y ago
I can’t stress this enough: Sweden is not acting as a control group. Every nation on Earth is restricting freedoms in some way, on a continuum, including Sweden. Even if Sweden is used in a future study, we wouldn’t know the cost benefit outcome of a lockdown for years anyway. A true control group would enact no policy changes and be a size and composition that matches the country you’re interested in.
- DiffEq 6y ago
  So...what you are saying is that we don't know if the lock down is working...so then, if science is our guide, why are we doing it? Also - no matter, who will die from this will die. Our hospitals are not overwhelmed so those needing help will get it. We should take our wallops up front instead of this way - it will be cheaper in the long run in every way (this includes preventing the depression related suicides that will inevitable come from a full on economic depression).
  - hyko 6y ago
    Why are we doing it? The same reason we don’t try to eat a year’s worth of meals in one day: we simply couldn’t handle it. The modelling and current experience indicate that hospitals would be overwhelmed relatively quickly. The only real argument against that is if natural herd immunity has already been achieved; seems unlikely at this stage, but we’ll know either way once credible seroprevalence studies are completed. A “lockdown” is a Fabian (or “rope-a-dope”) strategy: we avoid getting our assess kicked until the balance of power shifts in our favor, at which point we stage a massively devastating counterattack. In the context of COVID-19, that means safe and effective treatments, and/or universal vaccination. “Getting our wallops” upfront would likely involve a severe economic contraction, as millions of people are removed from economic activity by illness, death, and ultimately fear of the two. Even Sweden is projected to suffer a severe economic contraction, partly due to the global trading conditions and the openness of their economy, but also partly because fear of COVID-19 is sapping domestic demand.