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Don't forget about the commercial real estate bubble pop, and potentially a massive pump in prices of family homes as a result. I think that investors are goin

by blhack 6y ago

Don't forget about the commercial real estate bubble pop, and potentially a massive pump in prices of family homes as a result. I think that investors are going to be moving their money out of commercial real estate, and into residential. Edit: to be clear: I don't live in the Bay Area, and I think the housing prices there could go either way: 1) People spend more time in their homes and spend an even larger portion of their income on their home. Having a "good" home becomes even more important since you spend even more time there, and prices go up even more. 2) People just leave the bay area. Residential prices go down in the bay area. But there is a whole world out there that doesn't include SF, and I think that just generally speaking you're going to see an increase in residential home values as investors look for safe places to place their money outside of commercial real estate.

mc32 6y ago
Yeah I wonder if this will affect midMarket street development. To the chagrin of pols they might have promise further breaks to attract marquee tenants/HQs to these sorts of areas.
rattray 6y ago
Interesting - do you predict that bay area residential housing prices will go up? I would have guessed folks would just start leaving...
- gfodor 6y ago
  Downward pressure on bay area burbs because of people leaving, but upwards pressure potentially due to the exodus of SF as people start to want more separation from people. Time will tell.
ar_lan 6y ago
I would guess the opposite. If more Bay Area companies allow WFH, there's less demand here.
- cmrdporcupine 6y ago
  That only works if companies allow for 100% WFH.
- bhhaskin 6y ago
  WFH doesn't necessarily mean remote.
subsubzero 6y ago
I think a bit of both #1 and #2, I think you will see a large exodus of people from SF as it is very densely populated and you have people with many roommates who make very good money compared to the rest of the US. I see that crowd leaving for cheaper pastures in droves(#2). There are alot of companies that have positions that are tied to location, hardware engineers, execs, etc, these people will stay and that will point to #1. So I think the prices in SF will drop, and prices in the south bay will at worst stay flat and possibly go up as it is mostly single family homes and the companies in the area are doing very well, (google, apple, netflix, zoom)
01100011 6y ago
There are a whole lot of folks who would love to get away from the Bay Area if possible. The infrastructure is crap, the geography impedes growth and transit, the natives don't seem to like us, tax burden is high, real estate is expensive, and it's a major fault zone. I don't see how paying $1M+ for a 60 year old house makes sense, especially when there are still gang shootouts and high property crime. If investors want to move into that market, they are nuts. I don't think you can extract any more money from residents than the current market is already doing. It's one more reason not to buy a house here - how much more do you think prices will rise? Will that $1.5M, 1400 sq ft house full of lead paint, asbestos and aluminum wiring go for $2M next year? Probably not.

by blhack 6y ago

mc32 6y ago

Yeah I wonder if this will affect midMarket street development. To the chagrin of pols they might have promise further breaks to attract marquee tenants/HQs to these sorts of areas.

rattray 6y ago

Interesting - do you predict that bay area residential housing prices will go up? I would have guessed folks would just start leaving...

gfodor 6y ago
Downward pressure on bay area burbs because of people leaving, but upwards pressure potentially due to the exodus of SF as people start to want more separation from people. Time will tell.

ar_lan 6y ago

I would guess the opposite. If more Bay Area companies allow WFH, there's less demand here.

cmrdporcupine 6y ago
That only works if companies allow for 100% WFH.
bhhaskin 6y ago
WFH doesn't necessarily mean remote.

subsubzero 6y ago

I think a bit of both #1 and #2, I think you will see a large exodus of people from SF as it is very densely populated and you have people with many roommates who make very good money compared to the rest of the US. I see that crowd leaving for cheaper pastures in droves(#2). There are alot of companies that have positions that are tied to location, hardware engineers, execs, etc, these people will stay and that will point to #1. So I think the prices in SF will drop, and prices in the south bay will at worst stay flat and possibly go up as it is mostly single family homes and the companies in the area are doing very well, (google, apple, netflix, zoom)

01100011 6y ago

There are a whole lot of folks who would love to get away from the Bay Area if possible. The infrastructure is crap, the geography impedes growth and transit, the natives don't seem to like us, tax burden is high, real estate is expensive, and it's a major fault zone. I don't see how paying $1M+ for a 60 year old house makes sense, especially when there are still gang shootouts and high property crime. If investors want to move into that market, they are nuts. I don't think you can extract any more money from residents than the current market is already doing. It's one more reason not to buy a house here - how much more do you think prices will rise? Will that $1.5M, 1400 sq ft house full of lead paint, asbestos and aluminum wiring go for $2M next year? Probably not.