4 ms·
>that means that LOCKDOWN_COVID19_MORTALITY_REDUCTION - LOCKDOWN_EXTERNALITIES >= 20 million wellbeing-years. Absolutely wrong. And you are missing: - lockdow
by D_Alex 6y ago
>that means that LOCKDOWN_COVID19_MORTALITY_REDUCTION - LOCKDOWN_EXTERNALITIES >= 20 million wellbeing-years.
Absolutely wrong. And you are missing:
- lockdown reduction in suffering, due both to the acute phase of the disease and after effects
- No-lockdown-externalities, including damage to the economy if the disease is allowed to spread through the entire population
And perhaps most importantly:
- the risk that a huge reservoir of infected people will lead to repeat waves caused by mutations, and even worse that cross-species infection occurs (we already know cats and dogs can be infected - pigs and poultry could be next); then we risk flu-like antigenic shifts.
Put all this into the equation and I think the only thing we should be contemplating is how to eradicate the virus as soon as possible.
- ryankemper 6y ago> the only thing we should be contemplating is how to eradicate the virus as soon as possible. Do you think that eradication is actually a possibility? Or are you using it as a metaphor for "contain it super well"? There are a number of reasons why eradication is completely infeasible. In short, COVID-19 is a highly infectious respiratory disease and it came from a zoonotic origin. We know there are animal reservoirs at this moment. Therefore eradication is impossible. We've only ever eradicated two diseases in all of human history.