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I understand the intellectual appeal of that theory, but in reality given the behavior of the stock market in March (why a sudden drop if 20 years forward looki
by tarsinge 6y ago
I understand the intellectual appeal of that theory, but in reality given the behavior of the stock market in March (why a sudden drop if 20 years forward looking?), or ZOOM stock going up instead of ZM, Tesla stock moving from an opinion tweet, the volatility of individual stocks, etc... should make you doubt about that "it’s priced in long-term" belief.
- nateberkopec 6y agoThat's not what the efficient markets theory is. It means that the current price reflects all currently available public information, not that the price magically predicts the future and it can never change. Random events like what you described are completely different from the halvening, which is predictable years in advance almost down to the day.
- jatone 6y agogiven that the basis for EMH is untestable its useless. you can't make any assertions or predictions using it.
- VRay 6y agoThe Efficient Market Hypothesis is complete BS. It's only relevant in academia, and it'll stay that way since there's no profit to be had going to academia and arguing with professors on their home turf about it. You can see that it's BS by just looking at Warren Buffett's investment returns, all collected from exploiting long term market inefficiencies.