I completely agree with you which is why i’m replying that you should read those 2 models (S2F and S2FX). Its anonymous author says the same thing as you but go

I completely agree with you which is why i’m replying that you should read those 2 models (S2F and S2FX). Its anonymous author says the same thing as you but goes a step further trying to meaningfully quantify it. They are honest about the fact that this is just a model but nevertheless a very interesting one. If you like math i encourage you to have a proper look at it.