4 ms·

Newsom wants to run for President, so expect a timid response from him on re-opening the Calif. economy. Ironically, the Bay Area has close ties to China, so w

Newsom wants to run for President, so expect a timid response from him on re-opening the Calif. economy. Ironically, the Bay Area has close ties to China, so we're probably the closest to herd immunity of any US location. You can look at the local hospital dashboard and see there's no Bay Area corona crisis - the numbers have been the same for 2 months now: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

zwily 6y ago
You think Bay Area is closer to herd immunity than NYC?
esoterica 6y ago
That's not how herd immunity works. If the bay area was close to herd immunity, you would see >NYC level death numbers from there.
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  No, the Bay Area corona ramped up starting Dec., so you won't see NY-style weekly death rates. Let me put it this way. If you live in the Bay Area, you know people from Wuhan. We got a huge head start on the rest of America.
  - esoterica 6y ago
    Enough people in NYC have died that you would see the excess mortalities very clearly even if you smeared them out over a few months. Also tests have shown that almost no people in the Bay Area were infected prior to mid-Feb and only a low single digit percentage had antibodies in Santa Clara county as of early April. https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/04/testing-pooled-samples-to-track-early-spread-of-virus.html https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/04/testing-poole... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v... There is no evidence supporting your theory and plenty of strong evidence contradicting it. "Lots of people have Chinese friends and therefore everyone is already infected" is not a convincing line of argument.

4 ms·

Newsom wants to run for President, so expect a timid response from him on re-opening the Calif. economy. Ironically, the Bay Area has close ties to China, so w

by redis_mlc 6y ago

zwily 6y ago
You think Bay Area is closer to herd immunity than NYC?
esoterica 6y ago
That's not how herd immunity works. If the bay area was close to herd immunity, you would see >NYC level death numbers from there.
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  No, the Bay Area corona ramped up starting Dec., so you won't see NY-style weekly death rates. Let me put it this way. If you live in the Bay Area, you know people from Wuhan. We got a huge head start on the rest of America.
  - esoterica 6y ago
    Enough people in NYC have died that you would see the excess mortalities very clearly even if you smeared them out over a few months. Also tests have shown that almost no people in the Bay Area were infected prior to mid-Feb and only a low single digit percentage had antibodies in Santa Clara county as of early April. https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/04/testing-pooled-samples-to-track-early-spread-of-virus.html https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/04/testing-poole... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v... There is no evidence supporting your theory and plenty of strong evidence contradicting it. "Lots of people have Chinese friends and therefore everyone is already infected" is not a convincing line of argument.