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I actually agree with some of what Elon is saying around COVID - it is probably reasonable for the Tesla factory to open up partially this week, and shelter in
by GhostVII 6y ago
I actually agree with some of what Elon is saying around COVID - it is probably reasonable for the Tesla factory to open up partially this week, and shelter in place has gone on for too long without any proper justification in many areas. But his reasoning and actions surrounding this are completely insane. He spreads conspiracy theories about hospitals overcounting cases for profit, says that COVID is just like the flu, predicted no cases by the end of April, and then does this and opens up without approval, violating the law.
His fans seem to think he is some kind of genius, but based on what he has said about COVID he doesn't really seem that smart, or at least not well informed at all. Just by looking at the deaths year over year, it is clear that if anything, COVID cases are undercounted. And his claims that the shutdown of his factory are illegal are blatantly false. I don't know if he just doesn't know what he is talking about, or if he does and is just saying all this stuff for his personal gain. I suspect the former, but idk. This seems like a somewhat common pattern, where very successful and seemingly intelligent people have a few very obviously incorrect beliefs (ex. Steve Jobs and his fruit diet). Maybe they assume that success in one area implies knowledge in unrelated areas (I know I am guilty of this myself sometimes).
- x3n0ph3n3 6y ago> He spreads conspiracy theories about hospitals overcounting cases for profit It's not conspiracy, it's misaligned incentives. It _is_ happening. No matter how you die in a hospital, if you test positive for COVID-19, you are often marked as a COVID-related death, which affects how much aid that hospital gets. Given that hospitals are struggling financially as they are being avoided by everyone else, there is a strong incentive to do this.
- GhostVII 6y agoTo expand on that, I don't disagree that it could be happening in some cases. But I think it is very misleading to use it as a way to say that COVID is not as bad as we say. It is clear by the increase in deaths year-over-year that the death counts we are getting are roughly in line with what is being reported. Maybe "conspiracy theory" is a bit strong, but I absolutely think it is an invalid reason for downplaying the virus given that we can clearly see many more people are dying than last year in the same time period.
- x3n0ph3n3 6y agoDo you have a good source for differences in overall deaths between this year and last year?
- GhostVII 6y agoThe New York Times did a report on it [0]. It's important to note that not all of the increase in deaths is necessarily due to the virus itself, the lockdown could be causing more deaths due to people being resistant to going to the hospital, in which case lifting the lockdown would reduce these deaths. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronaviru...
- warkdarrior 6y agoFrom the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
- ImprobableTruth 6y agoThe NYT[0] has some neat graphs, but it's not a primary source. EuroMOMO[1] is a source for Europe, but I don't know what the equivalent would be for the US. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... [1]https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/
- mwest217 6y agoThe CDC has a page about it [here](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm).
- gamblor956 6y agoHospitals are not the arbiters of what gets marked as a COVID-related death. The local health agencies make that determination using information provided by the hospitals for each fatality. Thus for example, if you test postive for COVID19, but die from massive blood loss from the car accident that brought you to the hospital in the first place, you are recorded as dying from blood loss, not COVID19. If you have stage 4 cancer and a few weeks to live, and also have COVID19, and you die in a few weeks, you are recorded as dying from cancer, not COVID19.
- refurb 6y agoTrue, but there is still a judgement call. If someone has terminal cancer and is told they have a month to live, but contract Covid and only last 3 weeks, what do you put down? Was it the Covid that killed them?
- dijit 6y agoIf they die of COVID symptoms, then yes. It gets mucky if they have lung cancer, but I think it's such a tiny fraction of cases that have terminal lung cancer which will kill them in very few weeks _and_ the severe case of COVID-19.
- refurb 6y ago"If they die of COVID symptoms, then yes." What does that mean? Respiratory failure? Plenty of diseases cause death through respiratory failure. It's not that straight forward to determine cause of death in patients with comorbidities.
- dijit 6y agoIf you contract COVID-19 and then you die of Pneumonia a few weeks later then it's a pretty good guess.
- Lightbody 6y agoGoogle "comorbidities" + "[insert any disease]" and you'll find this same topic discussed over and over. This is something the medical profession has been dealing with pretty much forever. There is no reason to believe that suddenly there is a conspiracy to change how they handle reporting.
- ImprobableTruth 6y agoThere may be a financial incentive for hospitals, but hospitals don't mark these deaths, doctors do. I think it at the very least borders on a conspiracy theory to suggest that doctors are making a coordinated effort to falsely label deaths as COVID related. There may be cases where people get mislabeled (it's hard to determine what the exact source of death is, especially since COVID doesn't kill directly), but I would be hesitant to ascribe intentional mislabel to people.
- geggam 6y agoHe who cuts the paycheck tends to decide Those doctors aren't stupid. They know where their income comes from
- jmoss20 6y agoSure, fine. But let's put that aside. Like GP pointed out, the year-over-year numbers show undercounting. So what's going on? Either hospitals aren't actually over-counting. Or they are, and COVID is still undercounted. Or the year-over-year numbers are wrong. Which do you think it is? In all of those three world, hospital incentives are uninteresting. Why bring them up?
- tjos 6y agoYou can hate or love Elon, it has no effect on the law. What he’s doing is lawful. Executive orders that deprive natural rights are unconstitutional and thus illegal. The entire concept of natural rights like the Bill of Rights means they pre-existed the government and society. You can only deprive a person of these rights through some lawful process. Society is still functioning; we’re not in martial law. Yes people should willingly comply but you can’t force them to.
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- 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y agoI actually hope the ‘interim Health Officer’ attempts to physically close or shutdown the factory, because that would set off a spectacular legal challenge that the county would most definitely lose. I think they'll drop the case before it has a chance to set back the powers of their unilateral decisions. (The parent comment is flagged. Truly amazing times we live in where simply reminding people of their rights is reason to censor.)
- busymom0 6y agoJudge Napolitano says Elon has a very good shot at winning this lawsuit.
- GhostVII 6y agoWhich right gives you the ability to operate your business during a pandemic? I think there is a reasonable case to be made that you have a constitutional right to gather in groups and leave your home even under shelter in place, but I haven't heard anyone suggest that this would apply to businesses. I don't know that much about it though.
- manigandham 6y agoThen shouldn't this apply equally to all other businesses?
- nickik 6y ago> His fans seem to think he is some kind of genius, but based on what he has said about COVID he doesn't really seem that smart, or at least not well informed at all. We can make an argument about under reporting, over reporting and so on. I wouldn't call either conspiracy theory, clearly both is going on, the question is the relative numbers. I agree that under-reporting is probable higher. If you listen to the totality of his comments on the Joe Rogan podcast it is quite reasonable. Yes, his is clearly more libertarian then most of the California but people who are totally over-reacting to a few tweets and are literally flipping out and writing comments of hate and insults about him are really the people making fools of them selves. Or comment that basically say all he does is just for greed, and the typical anti all rich people socialist rhetoric is not convincing to me. As for me, I don't think he handled this COVID situation very well. And with the amount of Twitter follower he has, in this situation to tweet like that was guaranteed to cause a huge shit-storm. I know he is a genius because he is the Chief Engineer on the most successful rocket company in the world. Those that call him a business man or a marking guy clearly have not payed attention to how SpaceX happened and what his role there is. Doesn't mean he is right on every issue.
- varjag 6y agoWe are quickly approaching the point where rationalizing Musk's words and actions becomes impossible. Maybe it's time to face the reality. He seems to have no problem trading his science geeks following for QAnon crowd. Rather than grasping at increasingly thinner straws I wish him luck and hope it works for him.
- nickik 6y agoWhat exactly did he say that is so crazy? The over-under reporting issue is kind of a nonsense discussion in my opinion. Maybe it wrong but doesn't really change what should be done either way.
- yibg 6y agoI'm usually a fan of Elon and fully supportive of the things he's trying to accomplish. He's also a lot smarter and more informed than I am in many subjects. But his recent antics are really rubbing me the wrong way and it's getting harder and harder to stay a fan. This whole covid episode just strikes me as either greed or just a tantrum.
- lettergram 6y agoI think the thought process is generally: - Even if there is a risk, it’s minimal if they follow the guidelines - without money, those workers are going to starve - without cars Tesla goes bankrupt - without Tesla those workers are going to starve The reality is Elon is correct in his assessment. You either open the production in the safest way possible (minimizing risk) or you risk catastrophic loss of jobs and inevitably loss of life / livelihood.
- enraged_camel 6y agoThis "thought process" can be applied to literally every business in America. What makes Tesla special? Other than having an outspoken celebrity CEO with a strong cult of personality at the helm who has gotten more and more unhinged over the past couple of years (I want to believe as a result of stress, but I may be giving too much benefit of the doubt).
- jlbnjmn 6y ago> This "thought process" can be applied to literally every business in America. Pretty sure that's the point. If Amazon can have warehouse workers delivering non-essential goods without restrictions, why can't Tesla be manufacturing without restrictions? > What makes Tesla special? Pretty sure that's what Elon is arguing. What makes Tesla special in that it's the only car manufacturer being restricted?
- enraged_camel 6y agoThey aren’t special — just like the other car manufacturers, Tesla management was working with county health officials to make sure it had the necessary procedures and practices in place to reopen safely. Elon just got impatient.
- busymom0 6y ago> He spreads conspiracy theories about hospitals over-counting cases for profit He didn't say that. He said there's an incentive to doing it which is a fact and hospital administrators are pressuring physicians to do it: > Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators > Jensen said, "Hospital administrators might well want to see COVID-19 attached to a discharge summary or a death certificate. Why? Because if it's a straightforward, garden-variety pneumonia that a person is admitted to the hospital for – if they're Medicare – typically, the diagnosis-related group lump sum payment would be $5,000. But if it's COVID-19 pneumonia, then it's $13,000, and if that COVID-19 pneumonia patient ends up on a ventilator, it goes up to $39,000." > Jensen clarified in the video that he doesn't think physicians are "gaming the system" so much as other "players," such as hospital administrators, who he said may pressure physicians to cite all diagnoses, including "probable" COVID-19, on discharge papers or death certificates to get the higher Medicare allocation allowed under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act. Past practice, Jensen said, did not include probabilities. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fac... > predicted no cases by the end of April This was when Dr Fauci, WHO etc were all giving away wrong info. Why are you trusting them but not trusting Elon? Dr. Fauci: > Top disease official: Risk of coronavirus in USA is 'minuscule'; skip mask and wash hands https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-di... > Don't wear masks: https://youtu.be/LScHAvufgfM https://youtu.be/LScHAvufgfM > Fauci told cruises were totally fine on March 10th. https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2020/03/09/fauci-says-cruising-is-ok-if-you-are-healthy/#220f6db92d4d https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2020/03/09/fauci-say... People need top stop calling everything they don't like "conspiracy theories". They are often guilty of what they accuse others of 1000x.
- alden_penny 6y agoIt's pointless to try to defend Musk on this website. It will get flagged and removed and no one listens to logic
- ashtonkem 6y agoElon genuinely seems to have some pretty severe impulse control problems. He’s continuously creating liability & credibility problems for what, internet points? Let’s say that he’s right, it’s time for factories to open and he genuinely takes every step to protect his workers. And what if a worker gets sick anyways and sues? Could he really convince a jury that he took it seriously, after all the dumb things he’s said about the situation on twitter? He would’ve been better off not weighing in on the situation before the shut down orders came down. Now that he’s a business owner hoping to re-open he has some stake, but he trashed a lot of his credibility before the shut down for no obvious benefit.
- bredren 6y agoI suspect it is not entirely personality-driven, but at times intoxication that results in his outbursts.
- buzzerbetrayed 6y agoI’ll take “starting rumors with 0 evidence” for 500
- swarnie_ 6y agoI know the cult that surrounds Musk is strong but ignoring this issue is pathetic. Tesla board members reportedly concerned about Elon Musk’s use of Ambien - CNBC Aug 2018 Smokes weed on a podcast - Joe Rogan Sep 2018 NASA reportedly paid SpaceX $5 million to make sure its employees didn't use illegal drugs after Elon Musk smoked pot on camera - Business insider Aug 2019 Elon Musk's tweet on taking Tesla private now dogged by drugs claim from rapper Azealia Banks - Dec 2019
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- bredren 6y agohttps://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/872260000491593728 https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/87226000049159372... This is an attempt to normalize the behavior.
- titzer 6y ago> His fans seem to think he is some kind of genius, but based on what he has said about COVID he doesn't really seem that smart, or at least not well informed at all. This is a weird part of our culture where celebrities are constantly pushed by the twitter-sized attention span of our current day and age to put out oversimplified, exaggerated, and often totally wrong memes.
- godelski 6y ago> His fans seem to think he is some kind of genius, but based on what he has said about COVID he doesn't really seem that smart, or at least not well informed at all. Just by looking at the deaths year over year, it is clear that if anything, COVID cases are undercounted. I think this sentence really hits home at the problem. Elon is smart, but smart people make mistakes (Elon is definitely going off the deep end). The issue is that covid is a complicated topic with a lot of nuance. Elon is only paying attention to one part of the conversation but not to the rest. In science you don't only take one side of the conversation (HN actually is generally doing the same thing but from the other direction). The problem with science is that it is complicated and nuanced. If you ignore the nuance, it becomes much more complicated. So it isn't that he is uninformed, it is that he is hyper hyper informed, but only from one perspective (and uninformed from the other). We could actually generalize that to a lot of conversations in the US (and world). If you turn a nuanced topic into a simple topic, there can be no discussion and everyone sounds like idiots, but that doesn't mean they are uninformed or didn't try to understand (which is part of the problem with a lot of our conversations, because people know they spent a lot of time trying to understand but that doesn't mean they got all points nor understand the deeper meaning).
- lihaciudaniel 6y ago>ex. Steve Jobs and his fruit diet Oh Christ don't remind me, Jesus the smell wow....
- HanP77 6y agoI have this theory about very smart peoples. Intelligence is about making connection. When you're smart you're very good at it. Sometimes too good. If you don't use you critical mind it's easy to fall in the trap on conspiracy theories. I know a couple of very smart people's that believe the most outlandish stuff cause "they just can see it" And I know it happen to me in the past. I guess it's a double edge sword.