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I don't understand why this is causing almost any movement in the markets at all. It's a predictable event, so everyone's position should already take it into a

• Thorentis 6y ago
  Last I checked there wasn't really any movement at all. If anything, the price has dropped.
• sparkie 6y ago
  There are some things which aren't predictable, such as how many miners are going to drop out of the race given their potential revenue has just been chopped in half, with no corresponding doubling of the BTC/USD exchange rate. Some may be speculating that miners dropping out is bad for bitcoin because it reduces the security of the network and may give people weak hands if they're concerned that their money may not be as safe as previously assumed. Miners dropping out of the race would also release more mining hardware onto the markets at discounted prices, and some of it may go towards attempting to attack bitcoin. However, if you do the sums and work out how much it would cost to attempt and sustain such an attack, and how much can be gained from it, you quickly realize that such an attack would never be attempted for monetary gain - it is in the miner's best interest to play by the rules. The only other motive for attack is to cause temporary denial-of-service, at the expense of the miner, but this could only plausibly be conducted by a nation state due to the amount of work done in Bitcoin.