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> Roughly it predicts [2] that the price will settle into a band around 30,000 USD sometime next year. No, it predicts it will be at $30k at the end of this ye

by ac29 6y ago

> Roughly it predicts [2] that the price will settle into a band around 30,000 USD sometime next year. No, it predicts it will be at $30k at the end of this year, and $100k this time next year [0]. I'm pretty comfortable saying that no, it wont. If I though there was a reasonable, legitimate way to trade against that outcome occuring, I absolutely would. For reference, in the past year, BTC has increased in price by ~$1450 or 20% - getting to $100k would be over 1000% increase. [0] https://digitalik.net/btc/ https://digitalik.net/btc/

radium3d 6y ago
According to my theory based on BTC history the next peak will be $225038 or a 1020% increase over the previous peak. That's kind of conservative. My last estimate for the next peak was only $8903 but it hit $20089 or 1681% increase over the previous peak. I don't own any BTC but I just did this little sheet for fun lol :) also I don't try to predict when this happens, just a very rough estimate of the next peak level based on its previous history. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgqvFR6HeVNkw2fxLgdrnSMxKuHojVkiQBKQeSFj34o/edit#gid=338445762 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgqvFR6HeVNkw2fxLgdr...
- odonnellryan 6y ago
  Have you tried to do this same analysis on other commodities, securities, etc?
  - radium3d 6y ago
    Nope have not. When I started this sheet back in the day I considered it a new modern currency actually, it was before the government started taxing it as if it were a stock, etc. It really is nothing like any existing stock, security and should not be compared to those. I usually just go long on stocks, securities.
    - odonnellryan 6y ago
      I suppose my instinct is to think just because you were right once or twice about BTC using this model doesn't mean you'll be right about it going forward. What intrinsically about this model should give me confidence in it?
      - radium3d 6y ago
        My level of confidence can be described as (confidence != 0) lol. Really the only thing that will make it continue is if the scarcity continues to increase and it continues to be used to trade for things then it should continue to rise but I don't think zeroing out is possible.
      - strbean 6y ago
        I have a little bit of BTC, so you and every other HN reader should dump your net worth into it ASAP.
    - robbintt 6y ago
      It’s a commodity like gold, with mathemagical transfer fees and a fallback quasi decentralized interface of energy purchaser mining companies.
- ac29 6y ago
  The problem with that analysis is that it assumes past performance has something fundamental to do with future performance - it takes a lot more investment to move the price of BTC from $10k to $100k than it did to move it from $0.10 to $1. Apple stock has increased 100x in the past 15 years, but that doesn't mean it will increase 100x in the next 15 years (which would put its market cap at approximately 5x US GDP).
  - radium3d 6y ago
    2017 was definitely unexpected. I assumed the % change since previous peak would have gone down each time as your theory would suggest instead of up nearly 3x as much. The interesting thing is that the number of bitcoins in circulation (currently only 18,375,312) has grown so slowly and steadily as it is designed to do. I'm curious how many bitcoins are lost forever in inaccessible wallets.
jkhdigital 6y ago
LedgerX Omni provides US-regulated Bitcoin options trading. Pretty sure I saw some action in high strikes so go forth and trade.
- ac29 6y ago
  You cant see price data without creating an account that requires a social security number and government ID, which is a bit suspicious. Looking at a different, larger exchange, I see virtually no action to be had at high strike prices: https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-25DEC20 https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-25DEC20
  - jkhdigital 6y ago
    Call it suspicious or whatever you want, but they are licensed in the US. My experience with their platform is that cater to much more passive investors than the typical crypto exchange. For example, people who want to hodl but sell some OTM calls to generate income from their holdings.

by ac29 6y ago

radium3d 6y ago

According to my theory based on BTC history the next peak will be $225038 or a 1020% increase over the previous peak. That's kind of conservative. My last estimate for the next peak was only $8903 but it hit $20089 or 1681% increase over the previous peak. I don't own any BTC but I just did this little sheet for fun lol :) also I don't try to predict when this happens, just a very rough estimate of the next peak level based on its previous history. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgqvFR6HeVNkw2fxLgdrnSMxKuHojVkiQBKQeSFj34o/edit#gid=338445762 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgqvFR6HeVNkw2fxLgdr...

odonnellryan 6y ago
Have you tried to do this same analysis on other commodities, securities, etc?
- radium3d 6y ago
  Nope have not. When I started this sheet back in the day I considered it a new modern currency actually, it was before the government started taxing it as if it were a stock, etc. It really is nothing like any existing stock, security and should not be compared to those. I usually just go long on stocks, securities.
  - odonnellryan 6y ago
    I suppose my instinct is to think just because you were right once or twice about BTC using this model doesn't mean you'll be right about it going forward. What intrinsically about this model should give me confidence in it?
    - radium3d 6y ago
      My level of confidence can be described as (confidence != 0) lol. Really the only thing that will make it continue is if the scarcity continues to increase and it continues to be used to trade for things then it should continue to rise but I don't think zeroing out is possible.
    - strbean 6y ago
      I have a little bit of BTC, so you and every other HN reader should dump your net worth into it ASAP.
  - robbintt 6y ago
    It’s a commodity like gold, with mathemagical transfer fees and a fallback quasi decentralized interface of energy purchaser mining companies.
ac29 6y ago
The problem with that analysis is that it assumes past performance has something fundamental to do with future performance - it takes a lot more investment to move the price of BTC from $10k to $100k than it did to move it from $0.10 to $1. Apple stock has increased 100x in the past 15 years, but that doesn't mean it will increase 100x in the next 15 years (which would put its market cap at approximately 5x US GDP).
- radium3d 6y ago
  2017 was definitely unexpected. I assumed the % change since previous peak would have gone down each time as your theory would suggest instead of up nearly 3x as much. The interesting thing is that the number of bitcoins in circulation (currently only 18,375,312) has grown so slowly and steadily as it is designed to do. I'm curious how many bitcoins are lost forever in inaccessible wallets.

jkhdigital 6y ago

LedgerX Omni provides US-regulated Bitcoin options trading. Pretty sure I saw some action in high strikes so go forth and trade.

ac29 6y ago
You cant see price data without creating an account that requires a social security number and government ID, which is a bit suspicious. Looking at a different, larger exchange, I see virtually no action to be had at high strike prices: https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-25DEC20 https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-25DEC20
- jkhdigital 6y ago
  Call it suspicious or whatever you want, but they are licensed in the US. My experience with their platform is that cater to much more passive investors than the typical crypto exchange. For example, people who want to hodl but sell some OTM calls to generate income from their holdings.