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cfiresim runs simulations. I'm more interested in solving for a specific outcome. I looked into adding my withdrawal strategy to their code but that project has

cfiresim runs simulations. I'm more interested in solving for a specific outcome. I looked into adding my withdrawal strategy to their code but that project has been dead for years.

fsflyer 6y ago
For work that's been done on withdrawal strategies, see the Safe Withdrawal Rate series at https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/ https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/ How does your strategy differ from the many ERN evaluates?
- yeahgoodok 6y ago
  I'm a big fan of that series, mostly because we agree on just about everything. Especially how people tend to get carried away with 'the 4% rule', which is more than a rule-of-thumb than anything. The thing that's most different about my strategy is that it doesn't have a 'memory' of what your past retirement income was. Put simply, you retire every 3 months. A lot of folks get nervous when I say this but in practice, this is in fact how most people behave. For example, consider the case of someone who unfortunately retired just before the COVID crash. Strategies that have a 'memory' intrinsically offer some assurance that you'll probably weather the downturn without decreasing your lifestyle very much. In practice, most folks will 'start over' their retirement just to be safe and reset the memory of their prior payments. In my opinion, if you're not going to trust the assurances of a given strategy then what good is it? Another thing that sets my strategy apart is that it focuses on capital depletion. Most strategies don't have any sort of annuity component and this typically resorts in a binary outcome near the end of the investment horizon -- you're either filthy rich or you went bankrupt years ago (both of these are bad outcomes for me). My strategy is constantly readjusting itself so that you exhaust your savings around 100 years old (or whatever age you set the formula to). This results in better overall effective utilization of savings. I could go on but those are the two biggest things.
  - andrewmcwatters 6y ago
    To add another two cents, maybe consider the fact that some people would rather leave a majority of their estate to future generations rather than focus on capital depletion. I have no intention of burning most of my investments away when I can instead, over a lifetime, teach my children how to manage their resources and insulate them from concerns most others toil away at. I'd instead rather spend as a little as possible.
    - yeahgoodok 6y ago
      Even if you spend as little as possible and intend to leave an inheritance, you still must wonder how much you can safely withdraw from your investments, no? Simply wanting a particular outcome is seldom sufficient to make it so.

cfiresim runs simulations. I'm more interested in solving for a specific outcome. I looked into adding my withdrawal strategy to their code but that project has been dead for years.

fsflyer 6y ago

For work that's been done on withdrawal strategies, see the Safe Withdrawal Rate series at https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/ https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/ How does your strategy differ from the many ERN evaluates?

yeahgoodok 6y ago
I'm a big fan of that series, mostly because we agree on just about everything. Especially how people tend to get carried away with 'the 4% rule', which is more than a rule-of-thumb than anything. The thing that's most different about my strategy is that it doesn't have a 'memory' of what your past retirement income was. Put simply, you retire every 3 months. A lot of folks get nervous when I say this but in practice, this is in fact how most people behave. For example, consider the case of someone who unfortunately retired just before the COVID crash. Strategies that have a 'memory' intrinsically offer some assurance that you'll probably weather the downturn without decreasing your lifestyle very much. In practice, most folks will 'start over' their retirement just to be safe and reset the memory of their prior payments. In my opinion, if you're not going to trust the assurances of a given strategy then what good is it? Another thing that sets my strategy apart is that it focuses on capital depletion. Most strategies don't have any sort of annuity component and this typically resorts in a binary outcome near the end of the investment horizon -- you're either filthy rich or you went bankrupt years ago (both of these are bad outcomes for me). My strategy is constantly readjusting itself so that you exhaust your savings around 100 years old (or whatever age you set the formula to). This results in better overall effective utilization of savings. I could go on but those are the two biggest things.
- andrewmcwatters 6y ago
  To add another two cents, maybe consider the fact that some people would rather leave a majority of their estate to future generations rather than focus on capital depletion. I have no intention of burning most of my investments away when I can instead, over a lifetime, teach my children how to manage their resources and insulate them from concerns most others toil away at. I'd instead rather spend as a little as possible.
  - yeahgoodok 6y ago
    Even if you spend as little as possible and intend to leave an inheritance, you still must wonder how much you can safely withdraw from your investments, no? Simply wanting a particular outcome is seldom sufficient to make it so.