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If you are so confident, why not sit on a Tether short? The reality is that the market expects solvency for the foreseeable future, and tether solves a market

If you are so confident, why not sit on a Tether short? The reality is that the market expects solvency for the foreseeable future, and tether solves a market problem (liquidity in environments that do not impose the KYC laws required by the US government to trade USD), thereby allowing Bitcoin users to achieve a level of anonymity while still having liquidity. It also, of course, allows a wider variety and leverage range of financial instruments.

arcticbull 6y ago
> If you are so confident, why not sit on a Tether short? Because betting either way in a manipulated market is a sucker's game. Bitfinex has their finger on the scales. Why on earth would I bet in their casino? Does anyone other than Bitfinex even allow you to short USDT? Remember those two are one and the same, and Bitfinex doesn't even have banking. What are they going to pay my USDT short in? USDT?
- seibelj 6y ago
  https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/48857/former-head-of-circle-otc-says-theres-more-to-the-tether-narrative https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/48857/former-head-of-cir... > Matuszewski told On the Brink's Nic Carter that the idea of tethers driving the price of bitcoin significantly higher is "not true whatsoever." > "I say this as someone who created and redeemed billions of tether over the course of my life and specifically created it in 2017," he said. > In short, Matuszewski affirmed that there were incentivizing events for the generation of Tethers. Bitfinex didn't print Tether out of nowhere either, since Matuszewski said he himself was one of the drivers. > “I can tell you that billions of dollars were sent in to make it like that," he said. "I can 100%, without question, verifiably guarantee it happened. I did it, I was there...That money wasn't just being hypothecated. It wasn't just coming out of thin air, that was happening." I worked for Circle, I worked with Dan, and I can guarantee you that Dan (former head of Circle Trade, the second largest crypto OTC desk) knows his stuff, and Tether is nowhere near as sketchy as your posts and conspiracies would have you believe.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    > In short, Matuszewski affirmed that there were incentivizing events for the generation of Tethers. Bitfinex didn't print Tether out of nowhere either, since Matuszewski said he himself was one of the drivers. Great! Then an audit should be right around the corner, yeah? Or did we forget when their last auditor quit [1]. > "I say this as someone who created and redeemed billions of tether over the course of my life and specifically created it in 2017," he said. Tether's terms of service: "The right to have Tether Tokens redeemed or issued is a contractual right personal to you. Tether reserves the right to delay the redemption or withdrawal of Tether Tokens if such delay is necessitated by the illiquidity or unavailability or loss of any Reserves held by Tether to back the Tether Tokens, and Tether reserves the right to redeem Tether Tokens by in-kind redemptions of securities and other assets held in the Reserves." [2] Translation: Redemptions not guaranteed. > I worked for Circle, I worked with Dan, and I can guarantee you that Dan (former head of Circle Trade, the second largest crypto OTC desk) knows his stuff, and Tether is nowhere near as sketchy as your posts and conspiracies would have you believe. I'm sure the NYAG disagrees. [3] Likely in no small part because one large market participant doesn't validate a fraud. They would be hugely incentivized to provide Matuszewski service so that he could go on record and say exactly this kind of thing. I'm sure the same quotes could be attributed to big players in the Madoff case. So, in short: [audit needed] [1] https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/cryptocurrency-tether-splits-with-its-auditors-friedman-llp-2018-1-1014418471 https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/cryptocu... [2] https://tether.to/legal/ https://tether.to/legal/ [3] https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-york-ag-finds-it-perverse-for-bitfinex-and-tether-to-criticize-investigation https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-york-ag-finds-it-perverse...
    - seibelj 6y ago
      There is absolutely nothing I could say to change your mind, any reader can see the arguments made, and it's left for them to decide.
      - arcticbull 6y ago
        You show me an audit and I'll tell the world I was wrong from the rooftops. Is an audit for the thing that represents over 80% of the volume of all cryptocurrency exchanges that much to ask? Should we just have faith that the lord Satoshi is come?
- lend000 6y ago
  I'm certain that's the right decision for you. But for those who spend time understanding markets instead of mythologizing them (and assigning any unpredicted movement to a boogieman), there is absolutely alpha to be had, and the market is not so easy to manipulate as many (almost exclusively non-quants) believe. It's popular to shit on cryptocurrencies these days, and they certainly have their shortcomings, but they are still fascinating systems and the markets are even more interesting. Instead of intellectual discussion, people seem to flood the comments with hate and jealousy, presumably because some people made more money than them due to presumed luck.
  - wpietri 6y ago
    The popularity of shitting on cryptocurrencies is directly in proportion to the level of hype that never lived up to anything. They were supposed to revolutionize the world's economy. But so far they only have proven utility for speculation and light financial crime. Is it possible that somebody will make money speculating on cryptocurrencies? Sure. Some people make money from MLM schemes too. But ultimately these are negative-sum activities: more money goes in than comes out. And a lot of the money going in is from suckers being taken for a ride. I think there's nothing wrong with people being negative about that.
    - lend000 6y ago
      Based on the tone of the parent, I think we can probably agree his interest is more about deriding those who are involved in cryptocurrencies (whether they won or lost in the market) than offering a warning to protect newcomers. Like most, you have trivialized the use cases in places like Venezuela and Zimbabwe where the state backed financial system has failed. With the current state of technology, Bitcoin has no ability to replace the global payment network. Claiming that means it's a failure that hasn't lived up to anything is hyperbole. The system's very existence and self maintenance after over a decade is impressive enough to me. I also believe the financial utility of a new asset class with new properties is interesting and useful on its own, although I doubt the layman would agree.
      - 6y ago
- csomar 6y ago
  Kraken does and they are US regulated. Good luck with your short, you should make %100 of your money risk-free when Tether implodes.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    Tether itself is manipulated lol, even if I short it in Kraken I'm still playing Bitfinex's game. Once 30% of their reserves were seized they remained 1:1 -- there's no way to win whether I'm right or wrong.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - chillacy 6y ago
      There is a short play here: if there's ever a bank run on Tether, it'll crash to 0. The bet would be to hold onto this short and wait for this event to happen, but given how banks survive with fractional reserve banking, it's entirely possible that a bank run will never happen.
      - arcticbull 6y ago
        True, though I'd also have to have faith that the exchange remains solvent and that an upwards run in Tether (and it does run up ~10% from time to time) doesn't blow through my collateral -- on top of my other concerns. I think there's easier ways to make money, after all Madoff's scam took 40 years to unravel. I'm not willing to wait that long.
  - ac29 6y ago
    Given their fees (0.06%/day, or ~22%/year), you'd have to be right on the collapse pretty quickly to turn a profit. https://www.kraken.com/features/fee-schedule https://www.kraken.com/features/fee-schedule
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
MandieD 6y ago
As our old friend John Maynard Keynes allegedly said, and I repeat to myself every time I’m tempted to short something I think is wildly overpriced, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

arcticbull 6y ago

> If you are so confident, why not sit on a Tether short? Because betting either way in a manipulated market is a sucker's game. Bitfinex has their finger on the scales. Why on earth would I bet in their casino? Does anyone other than Bitfinex even allow you to short USDT? Remember those two are one and the same, and Bitfinex doesn't even have banking. What are they going to pay my USDT short in? USDT?

seibelj 6y ago
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/48857/former-head-of-circle-otc-says-theres-more-to-the-tether-narrative https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/48857/former-head-of-cir... > Matuszewski told On the Brink's Nic Carter that the idea of tethers driving the price of bitcoin significantly higher is "not true whatsoever." > "I say this as someone who created and redeemed billions of tether over the course of my life and specifically created it in 2017," he said. > In short, Matuszewski affirmed that there were incentivizing events for the generation of Tethers. Bitfinex didn't print Tether out of nowhere either, since Matuszewski said he himself was one of the drivers. > “I can tell you that billions of dollars were sent in to make it like that," he said. "I can 100%, without question, verifiably guarantee it happened. I did it, I was there...That money wasn't just being hypothecated. It wasn't just coming out of thin air, that was happening." I worked for Circle, I worked with Dan, and I can guarantee you that Dan (former head of Circle Trade, the second largest crypto OTC desk) knows his stuff, and Tether is nowhere near as sketchy as your posts and conspiracies would have you believe.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  > In short, Matuszewski affirmed that there were incentivizing events for the generation of Tethers. Bitfinex didn't print Tether out of nowhere either, since Matuszewski said he himself was one of the drivers. Great! Then an audit should be right around the corner, yeah? Or did we forget when their last auditor quit [1]. > "I say this as someone who created and redeemed billions of tether over the course of my life and specifically created it in 2017," he said. Tether's terms of service: "The right to have Tether Tokens redeemed or issued is a contractual right personal to you. Tether reserves the right to delay the redemption or withdrawal of Tether Tokens if such delay is necessitated by the illiquidity or unavailability or loss of any Reserves held by Tether to back the Tether Tokens, and Tether reserves the right to redeem Tether Tokens by in-kind redemptions of securities and other assets held in the Reserves." [2] Translation: Redemptions not guaranteed. > I worked for Circle, I worked with Dan, and I can guarantee you that Dan (former head of Circle Trade, the second largest crypto OTC desk) knows his stuff, and Tether is nowhere near as sketchy as your posts and conspiracies would have you believe. I'm sure the NYAG disagrees. [3] Likely in no small part because one large market participant doesn't validate a fraud. They would be hugely incentivized to provide Matuszewski service so that he could go on record and say exactly this kind of thing. I'm sure the same quotes could be attributed to big players in the Madoff case. So, in short: [audit needed] [1] https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/cryptocurrency-tether-splits-with-its-auditors-friedman-llp-2018-1-1014418471 https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/cryptocu... [2] https://tether.to/legal/ https://tether.to/legal/ [3] https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-york-ag-finds-it-perverse-for-bitfinex-and-tether-to-criticize-investigation https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-york-ag-finds-it-perverse...
  - seibelj 6y ago
    There is absolutely nothing I could say to change your mind, any reader can see the arguments made, and it's left for them to decide.
    - arcticbull 6y ago
      You show me an audit and I'll tell the world I was wrong from the rooftops. Is an audit for the thing that represents over 80% of the volume of all cryptocurrency exchanges that much to ask? Should we just have faith that the lord Satoshi is come?
lend000 6y ago
I'm certain that's the right decision for you. But for those who spend time understanding markets instead of mythologizing them (and assigning any unpredicted movement to a boogieman), there is absolutely alpha to be had, and the market is not so easy to manipulate as many (almost exclusively non-quants) believe. It's popular to shit on cryptocurrencies these days, and they certainly have their shortcomings, but they are still fascinating systems and the markets are even more interesting. Instead of intellectual discussion, people seem to flood the comments with hate and jealousy, presumably because some people made more money than them due to presumed luck.
- wpietri 6y ago
  The popularity of shitting on cryptocurrencies is directly in proportion to the level of hype that never lived up to anything. They were supposed to revolutionize the world's economy. But so far they only have proven utility for speculation and light financial crime. Is it possible that somebody will make money speculating on cryptocurrencies? Sure. Some people make money from MLM schemes too. But ultimately these are negative-sum activities: more money goes in than comes out. And a lot of the money going in is from suckers being taken for a ride. I think there's nothing wrong with people being negative about that.
  - lend000 6y ago
    Based on the tone of the parent, I think we can probably agree his interest is more about deriding those who are involved in cryptocurrencies (whether they won or lost in the market) than offering a warning to protect newcomers. Like most, you have trivialized the use cases in places like Venezuela and Zimbabwe where the state backed financial system has failed. With the current state of technology, Bitcoin has no ability to replace the global payment network. Claiming that means it's a failure that hasn't lived up to anything is hyperbole. The system's very existence and self maintenance after over a decade is impressive enough to me. I also believe the financial utility of a new asset class with new properties is interesting and useful on its own, although I doubt the layman would agree.
    - 6y ago
csomar 6y ago
Kraken does and they are US regulated. Good luck with your short, you should make %100 of your money risk-free when Tether implodes.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  Tether itself is manipulated lol, even if I short it in Kraken I'm still playing Bitfinex's game. Once 30% of their reserves were seized they remained 1:1 -- there's no way to win whether I'm right or wrong.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - chillacy 6y ago
    There is a short play here: if there's ever a bank run on Tether, it'll crash to 0. The bet would be to hold onto this short and wait for this event to happen, but given how banks survive with fractional reserve banking, it's entirely possible that a bank run will never happen.
    - arcticbull 6y ago
      True, though I'd also have to have faith that the exchange remains solvent and that an upwards run in Tether (and it does run up ~10% from time to time) doesn't blow through my collateral -- on top of my other concerns. I think there's easier ways to make money, after all Madoff's scam took 40 years to unravel. I'm not willing to wait that long.
- ac29 6y ago
  Given their fees (0.06%/day, or ~22%/year), you'd have to be right on the collapse pretty quickly to turn a profit. https://www.kraken.com/features/fee-schedule https://www.kraken.com/features/fee-schedule
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

MandieD 6y ago

As our old friend John Maynard Keynes allegedly said, and I repeat to myself every time I’m tempted to short something I think is wildly overpriced, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”