Rational market - that's an oxymoron if I ever heard one. Yes, current prices include anticipated future events (or at least speculation on those events, as we

Rational market - that's an oxymoron if I ever heard one. Yes, current prices include anticipated future events (or at least speculation on those events, as well as anticipated behavior of market participants based on those events, yada yada), to an extent. What prices can't anticipate is the behavior of market participants at any point in the future, much of which will be irrational; or the events in future history that may or may not trigger that behavior. Yes, there is alpha to be gained based on data collection/processing -- things like news, weather, twitter, satellite images of traffic or parking lots, etc. The more you know and can effectively analyze that other market participants don't know or can't effectively analyze, the better. But no one really knows the future, only what traders are statistically likely to do in the near future based on current events.