> These are sampled PCR tests, the 2.5% was 18 positive in a sample or something like that. (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/7bd5627f82... htt

> These are sampled PCR tests, the 2.5% was 18 positive in a sample or something like that. (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/7bd5627f82... https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/7bd5627f82...) > But in Sweden, only people who are ill enough to be admitted to hospital have been tested so far (especially around the time of the earlier studies - now it's expanding to more general testing) and other than those it has been mostly hospital staff. So the missing number is all asymptomatic AND all the cases that aren't severe enough to require emergency care. And that's a significant number. Right, but I'm not talking about sweden, I'm talking about places that were doing more significant testing. > The same high specificity zero test found 20% with antibodies among hospital staff in one hospital This would be unsurprising. There have been studies showing that certain at risk groups have very high prevalence (meat packers, homeless, etc.). These can't really be generalized across the broader population. We can infer that, for example, the hospitalization rate in NYC and San Francisco and Stockholm will be similar per-case, and per fatality, and draw conclusions from there. Those conclusions don't lead to 10 or 20% of the population infected anywhere. They might lead to 5% infected in the worst hit areas (NYC, Lombardy, etc.). Edit: I take this back partially: Stockholm apparently could reasonably be hit as hard as NYC at the moment, so it could also be at a 5% infection rate. Sweden as a whole almost certainly isn't though. > I thought there was a broad consensus now that is centering in on IFR of 0.3% in many places while others seem to have higher numbers like 0.5% or 0.8%. I haven’t seen many reports that suggest over 1%. CFR doesn’t really make any sense if you only ever confirm a fraction of the cases. I haven't seen this. It's certainly possible, but low estimates I'd seen were .5%, centered closer to .8 or 1%.