3 ms·
Herd immunity is an illusion. It would require that around 70% of people had been infected already. Using the USA as example: 70% of 328 million would be 230 m
by _Microft 6y ago
Herd immunity is an illusion.
It would require that around 70% of people had been infected already. Using the USA as example: 70% of 328 million would be 230 million people. At a rate of 20000 new infections a day, as it currently is, it would take approximately 11000 days to reach that. That's 32 years. Let us assume ten times this rate was possible and this would still mean over three years. We do not even know yet if people will stay immune for an extended period of time at all after having gone through the illness.
All this still ignores that even in a country like Germany that dealt pretty well with the situation so far, the death rate is at approximately 4%. 4% of 230 million people means 9.2 million would die.
This also ignored any lasting damages to lungs, heart, nervous system and kidneys as they have been reported.
There will be no herd immunity as long as the disease progresses as it currently does.
- umanwizard 6y agoThe low rate of spread is due to lockdowns. Once things start opening back up, herd immunity will happen quickly. I don’t understand the rest of your post. Why does the fact that herd immunity will cause deaths and other health effects mean that it’s not going to happen? (Edit: also, I don’t think it’s relevant, but FWIW that 4% number is CFR, not IFR. The best estimates of the true death rate are under 1%.)
- arvidj 6y agoThe rate of infection you refer to is probably the rate of detected infections. The true infection rate is probably higher. What else do you suggest than herd immunity? The only other solutions I see is containing the virus, which is very hard at this point, or developing a vaccine, which will also take some time.