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I think this is overly optimistic. I used to fly regularly and I have no intention of getting on a plane anytime in the next couple years. Maybe we will take a

I think this is overly optimistic. I used to fly regularly and I have no intention of getting on a plane anytime in the next couple years. Maybe we will take a road trip in a year or two, but the idea of getting in a plane is completely out of the question for the foreseeable future.

grey-area 6y ago
What if a vaccine is developed, wouldn't that make flying more palatable again?
- metalliqaz 6y ago
  the timeline for a vaccine lines up with his time estimation, "next couple of years"
- ralphstodomingo 6y ago
  I don't know about you, but while flying may start to be come more palatable over time once a vaccine is developed, my priorities have changed a lot over this situation that I'd put casual, international travel somewhere below my list.
  - grey-area 6y ago
    If I were confident that I wouldn't catch it, and wouldn't pass it on to others, I'd have no trouble flying just now. I suspect most airlines are going to go through bankruptcy, but those which emerge may get back to flying normally next summer, it depends how the disease progresses this year and what treatments are devised.
ajsnigrutin 6y ago
This is what a bunch of people said on 9/11. And very soon after that, everybody was flying again (although, after that, they got groped by security, and had to buy expensive airport drinks)
- sesuximo 6y ago
  Great point. I hope the drinks don't get even more expensive!
  - ajsnigrutin 6y ago
    Nah... the 0.5l bottle of water will still be 3EUR. But the mandatory 'bottle steriliziation fee', will be 5eur more.
    - sesuximo 6y ago
      Lol this might just happen
    - ardy42 6y ago
      IIRC, in the US many airlines have eliminated the in-flight beverage service. Maybe in the future there will be no alternative to the overpriced drinks if you want to drink anything during the hours you're in transit.
- genofon 6y ago
  but terrorist attacks on flights seems more controllable than a virus and also more rare. Granted that it's true that there is a lot of sensationalism there are also events that will disrupt an industry for a while
zrail 6y ago
We are in the same boat. Had a _lot_ of plane travel plans that are basically all on indefinite hold now. We are likely going to accelerate plans to purchase a more road-trip worthy vehicle (minivan, either with tow package or hybrid, can’t have both).
- gambiting 6y ago
  Btw, as an owner of a PHEV - benefits of a hybrid rapidly approach zero on very long journeys, potentially dipping into a negative past a certain point. If you're looking for a vehicle to take on road trips then skip the hybrid. It's absolutely fabulous if you're driving around 30-60 miles between charging though.
  - michaelt 6y ago
    What if you want a vehicle for daily commuting, plus occasional road trips?
    - gambiting 6y ago
      Then yeah, I guess it works fine - I mean that's exactly what I'm going to do with mine, I drive on pure electricity for my commute, but I'm planning a 2000 mile round trip once the entire lockdown ends. I'm just saying that I'm well aware that on that longer trip the hybrid system will do exactly nothing to improve my fuel economy, or in fact make it worse because I'll be carrying around a quarter tonne battery pack that sits there and does nothing.
      - Tade0 6y ago
        I drive a regular hybrid and it's great on hilly terrain with many ups and downs. I would buy a PHEV just so that it wouldn't switch from regenerative to engine braking mode so soon.
    - ken 6y ago
      You don’t have to buy one vehicle to do everything, and that’s difficult if your tasks are so different. Buy a commuter, and rent a van for road trips. Otherwise, you’re taking a road trip sized vehicle to work every day, or a commute sized vehicle on a road trip.
thedrbrian 6y ago
I think this is overly pessimistic. I used to fly regularly and I have every intention of getting on a plane soon. I’m booking extra trips so make up for the travel I’ve not been able to do for the last few months and to make up for missing things in the past.
- sesuximo 6y ago
  Me too! Good to see some people voicing both sides
- michaelt 6y ago
  This is completely dependent on how the public health situation develops over the coming months and years. If the outcome is there needs to be six-foot distancing aboard planes, that's not going to mean a 150-seat plane takes 100 passengers, it's going to mean a 150 seat plane takes 20 passengers. That would mean everyone paying first-class fares. And if some countries have different infection rates, different rates of testing and tracing, and some less trustworthy reporting of those numbers? If every international flight is subject to a mandatory 2 week quarantine in a hotel, say goodbye to 98% of international business travel and vacations. On the other hand, if there's 'herd immunity' or a vaccine, things could be largely back to normal. I certainly know a lot of people who've been saving up money and vacation days during the lockdown.
CPLX 6y ago
Yeah and I was living in Manhattan on 9/11 and everyone said they were leaving. People tend to have pretty short term mentalities for how they will react to news events.
ghaff 6y ago
My best guess is that it will end up somewhere between the extremes. I don't expect to get on a plane this year if only because I don't expect any business events I'd normally be traveling to will be on. I certainly hope they're back next year and, if so, I'll be traveling. That said, I don't expect there will be a vaccine by then and of course there's no guarantee how effective a vaccine will be. Not all vaccines are especially effective.
jamisteven 6y ago
Bit dramatic.
- chasd00 6y ago
  "Bit dramatic" encapsulates 80% of the reaction, analysis, and projections of this whole pandemic. I'll be flying as soon as work allows it. Once the consultants start flying you'll see big upticks in flights as workers demonstrate it can be done safely. I'm not saying instantly back to 100% but I expect decent recovery later in the summer. In the winter my opinion is air travel will drop as flu season complicates things and covid19 surges again. Then, once again, when flu season subsides, it will pick up again and that's when I believe we'll see a much larger air travel recovery.
numpad0 6y ago
What’s the problem flying has to do with the virus? It’s a single strain of virus across this planet. You’ll just have to prove somehow that you’re not infected, by a certificate of vaccination, or a 15-minute fully automatic PCR test, or at worst case by staying days to weeks in quarantine, but there’s no problem in the mode of transportation itself.
- asplake 6y ago
  You don’t think “days to weeks in quarantine” will put people off?

grey-area 6y ago

What if a vaccine is developed, wouldn't that make flying more palatable again?

metalliqaz 6y ago
the timeline for a vaccine lines up with his time estimation, "next couple of years"
ralphstodomingo 6y ago
I don't know about you, but while flying may start to be come more palatable over time once a vaccine is developed, my priorities have changed a lot over this situation that I'd put casual, international travel somewhere below my list.
- grey-area 6y ago
  If I were confident that I wouldn't catch it, and wouldn't pass it on to others, I'd have no trouble flying just now. I suspect most airlines are going to go through bankruptcy, but those which emerge may get back to flying normally next summer, it depends how the disease progresses this year and what treatments are devised.

ajsnigrutin 6y ago

This is what a bunch of people said on 9/11. And very soon after that, everybody was flying again (although, after that, they got groped by security, and had to buy expensive airport drinks)

sesuximo 6y ago
Great point. I hope the drinks don't get even more expensive!
- ajsnigrutin 6y ago
  Nah... the 0.5l bottle of water will still be 3EUR. But the mandatory 'bottle steriliziation fee', will be 5eur more.
  - sesuximo 6y ago
    Lol this might just happen
  - ardy42 6y ago
    IIRC, in the US many airlines have eliminated the in-flight beverage service. Maybe in the future there will be no alternative to the overpriced drinks if you want to drink anything during the hours you're in transit.
genofon 6y ago
but terrorist attacks on flights seems more controllable than a virus and also more rare. Granted that it's true that there is a lot of sensationalism there are also events that will disrupt an industry for a while

zrail 6y ago

We are in the same boat. Had a _lot_ of plane travel plans that are basically all on indefinite hold now. We are likely going to accelerate plans to purchase a more road-trip worthy vehicle (minivan, either with tow package or hybrid, can’t have both).

gambiting 6y ago
Btw, as an owner of a PHEV - benefits of a hybrid rapidly approach zero on very long journeys, potentially dipping into a negative past a certain point. If you're looking for a vehicle to take on road trips then skip the hybrid. It's absolutely fabulous if you're driving around 30-60 miles between charging though.
- michaelt 6y ago
  What if you want a vehicle for daily commuting, plus occasional road trips?
  - gambiting 6y ago
    Then yeah, I guess it works fine - I mean that's exactly what I'm going to do with mine, I drive on pure electricity for my commute, but I'm planning a 2000 mile round trip once the entire lockdown ends. I'm just saying that I'm well aware that on that longer trip the hybrid system will do exactly nothing to improve my fuel economy, or in fact make it worse because I'll be carrying around a quarter tonne battery pack that sits there and does nothing.
    - Tade0 6y ago
      I drive a regular hybrid and it's great on hilly terrain with many ups and downs. I would buy a PHEV just so that it wouldn't switch from regenerative to engine braking mode so soon.
  - ken 6y ago
    You don’t have to buy one vehicle to do everything, and that’s difficult if your tasks are so different. Buy a commuter, and rent a van for road trips. Otherwise, you’re taking a road trip sized vehicle to work every day, or a commute sized vehicle on a road trip.

thedrbrian 6y ago

I think this is overly pessimistic. I used to fly regularly and I have every intention of getting on a plane soon. I’m booking extra trips so make up for the travel I’ve not been able to do for the last few months and to make up for missing things in the past.

sesuximo 6y ago
Me too! Good to see some people voicing both sides
michaelt 6y ago
This is completely dependent on how the public health situation develops over the coming months and years. If the outcome is there needs to be six-foot distancing aboard planes, that's not going to mean a 150-seat plane takes 100 passengers, it's going to mean a 150 seat plane takes 20 passengers. That would mean everyone paying first-class fares. And if some countries have different infection rates, different rates of testing and tracing, and some less trustworthy reporting of those numbers? If every international flight is subject to a mandatory 2 week quarantine in a hotel, say goodbye to 98% of international business travel and vacations. On the other hand, if there's 'herd immunity' or a vaccine, things could be largely back to normal. I certainly know a lot of people who've been saving up money and vacation days during the lockdown.

CPLX 6y ago

Yeah and I was living in Manhattan on 9/11 and everyone said they were leaving. People tend to have pretty short term mentalities for how they will react to news events.

ghaff 6y ago

My best guess is that it will end up somewhere between the extremes. I don't expect to get on a plane this year if only because I don't expect any business events I'd normally be traveling to will be on. I certainly hope they're back next year and, if so, I'll be traveling. That said, I don't expect there will be a vaccine by then and of course there's no guarantee how effective a vaccine will be. Not all vaccines are especially effective.

jamisteven 6y ago

Bit dramatic.

chasd00 6y ago
"Bit dramatic" encapsulates 80% of the reaction, analysis, and projections of this whole pandemic. I'll be flying as soon as work allows it. Once the consultants start flying you'll see big upticks in flights as workers demonstrate it can be done safely. I'm not saying instantly back to 100% but I expect decent recovery later in the summer. In the winter my opinion is air travel will drop as flu season complicates things and covid19 surges again. Then, once again, when flu season subsides, it will pick up again and that's when I believe we'll see a much larger air travel recovery.

numpad0 6y ago

What’s the problem flying has to do with the virus? It’s a single strain of virus across this planet. You’ll just have to prove somehow that you’re not infected, by a certificate of vaccination, or a 15-minute fully automatic PCR test, or at worst case by staying days to weeks in quarantine, but there’s no problem in the mode of transportation itself.

asplake 6y ago
You don’t think “days to weeks in quarantine” will put people off?