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The simple answer is, enclosed spaces breathing strangers exhalations are going to be very risky till we hit vaccine / herd immunity. Will your business insura

The simple answer is, enclosed spaces breathing strangers exhalations are going to be very risky till we hit vaccine / herd immunity. Will your business insurance cover that?

_Microft 7y ago
Herd immunity is an illusion. It would require that around 70% of people had been infected already. Using the USA as example: 70% of 328 million would be 230 million people. At a rate of 20000 new infections a day, as it currently is, it would take approximately 11000 days to reach that. That's 32 years. Let us assume ten times this rate was possible and this would still mean over three years. We do not even know yet if people will stay immune for an extended period of time at all after having gone through the illness. All this still ignores that even in a country like Germany that dealt pretty well with the situation so far, the death rate is at approximately 4%. 4% of 230 million people means 9.2 million would die. This also ignored any lasting damages to lungs, heart, nervous system and kidneys as they have been reported. There will be no herd immunity as long as the disease progresses as it currently does.
- umanwizard 7y ago
  The low rate of spread is due to lockdowns. Once things start opening back up, herd immunity will happen quickly. I don’t understand the rest of your post. Why does the fact that herd immunity will cause deaths and other health effects mean that it’s not going to happen? (Edit: also, I don’t think it’s relevant, but FWIW that 4% number is CFR, not IFR. The best estimates of the true death rate are under 1%.)
- arvidj 7y ago
  The rate of infection you refer to is probably the rate of detected infections. The true infection rate is probably higher. What else do you suggest than herd immunity? The only other solutions I see is containing the virus, which is very hard at this point, or developing a vaccine, which will also take some time.
lifeisstillgood 7y ago
I wrote this just as got distracted by kids / life etc - was meant to be a little more ... something. What I am trying to say is that enclosed public spaces are going to be very risky for a long time - airline cabins, High rise elevators etc. And someone is going to have to offset that risk - someone will need to pay for insurance such that if I catch Covid on your airplane and I sue the airline, they are covered. Similarly the firm that employs me will need insurance to protect itself for 'forcing' me into an elevator in order to work. These insurers will set the baseline - maximum occupancy, levels of pre-boarding tests etc. Whatever it is what will drive the occupancy rates will be determined by insurance premiums. In airline terms that's almost certain to drive up ticket prices. It is also likely to put nitro into the tanks of NetJets etc - if you can afford first class you won't ever dream of getting on a Jumbo jet again. SO I agree with the thrust of the article. What does strike me is that if you work somewhere that requires an elevator to get to it, you almost certainly can work from home.

The simple answer is, enclosed spaces breathing strangers exhalations are going to be very risky till we hit vaccine / herd immunity. Will your business insurance cover that?

_Microft 7y ago

Herd immunity is an illusion. It would require that around 70% of people had been infected already. Using the USA as example: 70% of 328 million would be 230 million people. At a rate of 20000 new infections a day, as it currently is, it would take approximately 11000 days to reach that. That's 32 years. Let us assume ten times this rate was possible and this would still mean over three years. We do not even know yet if people will stay immune for an extended period of time at all after having gone through the illness. All this still ignores that even in a country like Germany that dealt pretty well with the situation so far, the death rate is at approximately 4%. 4% of 230 million people means 9.2 million would die. This also ignored any lasting damages to lungs, heart, nervous system and kidneys as they have been reported. There will be no herd immunity as long as the disease progresses as it currently does.

umanwizard 7y ago
The low rate of spread is due to lockdowns. Once things start opening back up, herd immunity will happen quickly. I don’t understand the rest of your post. Why does the fact that herd immunity will cause deaths and other health effects mean that it’s not going to happen? (Edit: also, I don’t think it’s relevant, but FWIW that 4% number is CFR, not IFR. The best estimates of the true death rate are under 1%.)
arvidj 7y ago
The rate of infection you refer to is probably the rate of detected infections. The true infection rate is probably higher. What else do you suggest than herd immunity? The only other solutions I see is containing the virus, which is very hard at this point, or developing a vaccine, which will also take some time.

lifeisstillgood 7y ago

I wrote this just as got distracted by kids / life etc - was meant to be a little more ... something. What I am trying to say is that enclosed public spaces are going to be very risky for a long time - airline cabins, High rise elevators etc. And someone is going to have to offset that risk - someone will need to pay for insurance such that if I catch Covid on your airplane and I sue the airline, they are covered. Similarly the firm that employs me will need insurance to protect itself for 'forcing' me into an elevator in order to work. These insurers will set the baseline - maximum occupancy, levels of pre-boarding tests etc. Whatever it is what will drive the occupancy rates will be determined by insurance premiums. In airline terms that's almost certain to drive up ticket prices. It is also likely to put nitro into the tanks of NetJets etc - if you can afford first class you won't ever dream of getting on a Jumbo jet again. SO I agree with the thrust of the article. What does strike me is that if you work somewhere that requires an elevator to get to it, you almost certainly can work from home.