The UW model can't be said to estimate or underestimate anything at all - it's just curve fitting and is being constantly updated because the moment they issue

The UW model can't be said to estimate or underestimate anything at all - it's just curve fitting and is being constantly updated because the moment they issue an update, it's immediately out of line with reality. And not just out of line but outside the uncertainty bounds too. There's a review of the performance of the model and its updates here: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-projection-models-proving-unreliable/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-p...