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>people will likely continue to be very prudent after the orders are lifted just as they were very prudent before they were officially promulgated. The debate

>people will likely continue to be very prudent after the orders are lifted just as they were very prudent before they were officially promulgated. The debate is not moot because an imprudent minority can ruin it for the rest of us. Based on the models I've seen, the % of people disobeying the lockdown (even an informal lockdown) has a highly non-linear affect on the effectiveness.

djsumdog 6y ago
But what is the end game? This is in the environment and it can't possibly be eradicated at this point; except maybe in New Zealand. In Sweden and the UK, it's most likely just going to go through the population until they're a reasonable immunity. That will set other countries who have eradicated the virus in an interesting state, with little natural immunity, they may not be able to open their borders again for a very long time. People are already spreading this through basic supply and grocery store runs. People are getting it from family they live with. It's going to spread no matter what, through the people who still hang out once or twice a week with their best friends. I think it's silly to plague shame people at this point. We are looking at each other in constant fear for something no one can control; based off information from experiments only a subset of the population can replicate, reported to us by media and governments who have repeatedly lied to us. There is no way we will realistically see a vaccine in 18 months. That's big pharma insanity. Should we simply stay locked down forever? or until one of these drugs/compounds works? Humans are not cogs in a machine you can simply stop, or a device you can put in standby or low power state. We're human beings.
- loopz 6y ago
  We stopped uncontrolled contagion. Next steps are mitigation in order to keep contagion low enough. We don't know how immunity works for this novel virus, so research, massive testing and improved tracing. Borders can open up when countries cooperate. Prove better medicine to reduce ICU time. Work while embracing the remaining uncertainties.
- collyw 6y ago
  No one ever offers a long term plan. I have posted some comments similar to your on facebook. People will nitpick details but no one says how long we should remain in lockdown. We were told we needed lockdown to flatten the curve. We have managed that (I am in Spain). Now it's all about new normal and completely screwing the economy with little evidence about the effectiveness of the measures.
- Gibbon1 6y ago
  > This is in the environment and it can't possibly be eradicated at this point This pure defeatism.

djsumdog 6y ago

But what is the end game? This is in the environment and it can't possibly be eradicated at this point; except maybe in New Zealand. In Sweden and the UK, it's most likely just going to go through the population until they're a reasonable immunity. That will set other countries who have eradicated the virus in an interesting state, with little natural immunity, they may not be able to open their borders again for a very long time. People are already spreading this through basic supply and grocery store runs. People are getting it from family they live with. It's going to spread no matter what, through the people who still hang out once or twice a week with their best friends. I think it's silly to plague shame people at this point. We are looking at each other in constant fear for something no one can control; based off information from experiments only a subset of the population can replicate, reported to us by media and governments who have repeatedly lied to us. There is no way we will realistically see a vaccine in 18 months. That's big pharma insanity. Should we simply stay locked down forever? or until one of these drugs/compounds works? Humans are not cogs in a machine you can simply stop, or a device you can put in standby or low power state. We're human beings.

loopz 6y ago
We stopped uncontrolled contagion. Next steps are mitigation in order to keep contagion low enough. We don't know how immunity works for this novel virus, so research, massive testing and improved tracing. Borders can open up when countries cooperate. Prove better medicine to reduce ICU time. Work while embracing the remaining uncertainties.
collyw 6y ago
No one ever offers a long term plan. I have posted some comments similar to your on facebook. People will nitpick details but no one says how long we should remain in lockdown. We were told we needed lockdown to flatten the curve. We have managed that (I am in Spain). Now it's all about new normal and completely screwing the economy with little evidence about the effectiveness of the measures.
Gibbon1 6y ago
> This is in the environment and it can't possibly be eradicated at this point This pure defeatism.