4 ms·

I wouldn't call guessing with slightly better odds than a coin flip "extrapolating the future". Do continue ignoring all the massive failures and continuous ca

• ben_w 6y ago
  If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing. With one exception that I know of, share prices are the average over all estimates of future earnings. The exception is: When investors just follow the leader instead of producing their own price estimates, you get bubbles.
  • seppin 6y ago
    > If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing. No, but it does mean they aren't any more skilled than anyone else on the same level. They surely cannot know what will happen next any better.