4 ms·

Ok so look at Brazil, 11k dead out of 212M = .005%

by htnsao 6y ago

joshuamorton 6y ago
They reported 500 dead today, and 600 yesterday. Let's see where they are in a week or two (it'll be with 3x these death numbers and likely entering a lockdown de facto due to popular support for it).
- htnsao 6y ago
  >They reported 500 dead today, and 600 yesterday. Brazil normally has 3800 deaths per day [0] so, as Bolsonaro says, so what. Some of the sick and elderly dying a few months earlier does not warrant removing the livelihoods of everyone else. >Let's see where they are in a week or two (it'll be with 3x these death numbers and likely entering a lockdown de facto due to popular support for it). Popular support is a function of media manipulation. And we know what types gravitate to that kind of work. [0]:https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/brazil-population/ https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/brazil-populatio...
  - joshuamorton 6y ago
    > And we know what types gravitate to that kind of work. I have no clue what you're getting at, fwiw. As for the meat of your comment, exponential growth hits like a truck. 1/3 of Brazil's confirmed Covid-19 cases were confirmed last week. In general that means the death rate, which lags infection rate by a week or so, is based on 100K infected, not 150K. So this time next week we'll see 1000 per day. The week after, 1500 per day, actually probably more as hospitals get overwhelmed. > Some of the sick and elderly dying a few months earlier does not warrant removing the livelihoods of everyone else. And what of the hundred plus people under thirty and the 1000 plus people under 60 who have died from covid-19 in Brazil so far? And the 100 plus people under thirty and the 1000 plus additional people under 60 who will die from covid-19 in Brazil in the next week?
    - htnsao 6y ago
      >> And we know what types gravitate to that kind of work. >I have no clue what you're getting at, fwiw. Basically the kind of people that on any given day (it switches to a new subject every few weeks) are whining(/bullying) about feminism, gay rights, misogyny, bullying, #metoo, etc etc are now causing the collapse of the world economy. >As for the meat of your comment, exponential growth hits like a truck. They say that but hasn't happened. And it's not like the virus is going disappear everywhere before the lockdowns need to be let up so there really is no point in having them in the first place. People just need to soldier on. >And what of the hundred plus people under thirty and the 1000 plus people under 60 who have died from covid-19 in Brazil so far? And the 100 plus people under thirty and the 1000 plus additional people under 60 who will die from covid-19 in Brazil in the next week? As shown in the previous link, 1 person net is added to the population of Brazil every 21 seconds. That's the real emergency.
      - joshuamorton 6y ago
        > They say that but hasn't happened It's happening right before your eyes: To repeat myself, 1/3 of Brazil's confirmed Covid-19 cases were confirmed last week. That's exponential growth. If that trend continues, and without intervention it will, a week from now, Brazil will be over 200K confirmed cases. A week later, well over 350K. For comparison, Brazil is about where Italy was on March 20th. They had instituted a nationwide lockdown on March 9th, and still had peak deaths (at around 900/daily) a week later on the 27th and 28th. For brazil at this point, that's basically unavoidable. So just checking, at what point do you believe a lockdown is reasonable? When covid causes more deaths than every other cause of death combined? Because that's just a month away. > As shown in the previous link, 1 person net is added to the population of Brazil every 21 seconds. That's the real emergency. I see no reason to consider this an emergency. If anything, we can expect the birth rate to begin decreasing as Brazil stabilizes. Of course that won't happen if a virus sweeps through and kills a bunch of people. > Basically the kind of people that on any given day (it switches to a new subject every few weeks) are whining(/bullying) about feminism, gay rights, misogyny, bullying, #metoo, etc etc are now causing the collapse of the world economy. I'm sorry you feel this way. I wish you happiness and peace in these hard times.
awalsh128 6y ago
It looks like you are just cherrypicking examples and wildly speculating. Brazil is early into this and seeing a high rate of transmission (R0 2.8). We really don't know enough in this country's case what the end result will be in terms of mortality.
- htnsao 6y ago
  >It looks like you are just cherrypicking examples and wildly speculating. Hardly. Those are the two countries that have resisted shutdown of their economies and are showing negligible percentage of deaths. And the World Food Programme has stated that the coronovirus shutdown is putting ~265 million at risk of famine and "as our Executive Director told the UN Security Council on Tuesday, we could be looking at 300,000 people dying every day for three months" [0] >Brazil is early into this and seeing a high rate of transmission (R0 2.8). We really don't know enough in this country's case what the end result will be in terms of mortality. Yeah. Perhaps it will bump up from .005% of their population dying to .03%. Mostly the already sick and elderly. [0]:https://www.dw.com/en/world-food-program-act-now-to-prevent-coronavirus-famine/a-53219305 https://www.dw.com/en/world-food-program-act-now-to-prevent-...

Ok so look at Brazil, 11k dead out of 212M = .005%

by htnsao 6y ago

Ok so look at Brazil, 11k dead out of 212M = .005%

They reported 500 dead today, and 600 yesterday. Let's see where they are in a week or two (it'll be with 3x these death numbers and likely entering a lockdown de facto due to popular support for it).

htnsao 6y ago
>They reported 500 dead today, and 600 yesterday. Brazil normally has 3800 deaths per day [0] so, as Bolsonaro says, so what. Some of the sick and elderly dying a few months earlier does not warrant removing the livelihoods of everyone else. >Let's see where they are in a week or two (it'll be with 3x these death numbers and likely entering a lockdown de facto due to popular support for it). Popular support is a function of media manipulation. And we know what types gravitate to that kind of work. [0]:https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/brazil-population/ https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/brazil-populatio...
- joshuamorton 6y ago
  > And we know what types gravitate to that kind of work. I have no clue what you're getting at, fwiw. As for the meat of your comment, exponential growth hits like a truck. 1/3 of Brazil's confirmed Covid-19 cases were confirmed last week. In general that means the death rate, which lags infection rate by a week or so, is based on 100K infected, not 150K. So this time next week we'll see 1000 per day. The week after, 1500 per day, actually probably more as hospitals get overwhelmed. > Some of the sick and elderly dying a few months earlier does not warrant removing the livelihoods of everyone else. And what of the hundred plus people under thirty and the 1000 plus people under 60 who have died from covid-19 in Brazil so far? And the 100 plus people under thirty and the 1000 plus additional people under 60 who will die from covid-19 in Brazil in the next week?
  - htnsao 6y ago
    >> And we know what types gravitate to that kind of work. >I have no clue what you're getting at, fwiw. Basically the kind of people that on any given day (it switches to a new subject every few weeks) are whining(/bullying) about feminism, gay rights, misogyny, bullying, #metoo, etc etc are now causing the collapse of the world economy. >As for the meat of your comment, exponential growth hits like a truck. They say that but hasn't happened. And it's not like the virus is going disappear everywhere before the lockdowns need to be let up so there really is no point in having them in the first place. People just need to soldier on. >And what of the hundred plus people under thirty and the 1000 plus people under 60 who have died from covid-19 in Brazil so far? And the 100 plus people under thirty and the 1000 plus additional people under 60 who will die from covid-19 in Brazil in the next week? As shown in the previous link, 1 person net is added to the population of Brazil every 21 seconds. That's the real emergency.
    - joshuamorton 6y ago
      > They say that but hasn't happened It's happening right before your eyes: To repeat myself, 1/3 of Brazil's confirmed Covid-19 cases were confirmed last week. That's exponential growth. If that trend continues, and without intervention it will, a week from now, Brazil will be over 200K confirmed cases. A week later, well over 350K. For comparison, Brazil is about where Italy was on March 20th. They had instituted a nationwide lockdown on March 9th, and still had peak deaths (at around 900/daily) a week later on the 27th and 28th. For brazil at this point, that's basically unavoidable. So just checking, at what point do you believe a lockdown is reasonable? When covid causes more deaths than every other cause of death combined? Because that's just a month away. > As shown in the previous link, 1 person net is added to the population of Brazil every 21 seconds. That's the real emergency. I see no reason to consider this an emergency. If anything, we can expect the birth rate to begin decreasing as Brazil stabilizes. Of course that won't happen if a virus sweeps through and kills a bunch of people. > Basically the kind of people that on any given day (it switches to a new subject every few weeks) are whining(/bullying) about feminism, gay rights, misogyny, bullying, #metoo, etc etc are now causing the collapse of the world economy. I'm sorry you feel this way. I wish you happiness and peace in these hard times.

awalsh128 6y ago

It looks like you are just cherrypicking examples and wildly speculating. Brazil is early into this and seeing a high rate of transmission (R0 2.8). We really don't know enough in this country's case what the end result will be in terms of mortality.

htnsao 6y ago
>It looks like you are just cherrypicking examples and wildly speculating. Hardly. Those are the two countries that have resisted shutdown of their economies and are showing negligible percentage of deaths. And the World Food Programme has stated that the coronovirus shutdown is putting ~265 million at risk of famine and "as our Executive Director told the UN Security Council on Tuesday, we could be looking at 300,000 people dying every day for three months" [0] >Brazil is early into this and seeing a high rate of transmission (R0 2.8). We really don't know enough in this country's case what the end result will be in terms of mortality. Yeah. Perhaps it will bump up from .005% of their population dying to .03%. Mostly the already sick and elderly. [0]:https://www.dw.com/en/world-food-program-act-now-to-prevent-coronavirus-famine/a-53219305 https://www.dw.com/en/world-food-program-act-now-to-prevent-...