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Healthy 30 year olds are ending up in the ICU. Many of them will have organ damage that will take years or may never heal. We can eradicate like New Zealand did

by wbl 6y ago

Healthy 30 year olds are ending up in the ICU. Many of them will have organ damage that will take years or may never heal. We can eradicate like New Zealand did. We choose not to. Is bugchasing really such a common kink?

tdfx 6y ago
As far as I've read, the number of healthy 30 year olds who went to the ICU and had organ damage is vanishingly small. Is there somewhere this is happening in any statistically significant way? There's a lot of ways a healthy 30 year can die yet only one particular way is getting any attention.
tinus_hn 6y ago
Healthy 30 year olds die from traffic accidents. Do you yearn for life in which all risk is avoided at all costs, and do you think it’s proper to force that on everyone else?
- wbl 6y ago
  If 0.5٪ of the population was dying in a car accident every year you can be sure there would be a massive safety effort.
  - tinus_hn 6y ago
    0.5% of 30 year olds is not going to the hospital for Covid-19 by a long shot. In the Netherlands there are approximately 1.100.000 people between 30 and 34 years old (inclusive). Of those people 150 entered the hospital. That’s 0.01%. Most of these people are not dying (in fact only 3 of them did, which is 0.0003%) and while there isn’t a number of people with the chronic problems it definitely isn’t all of them. By the way slightly more than 0.1% of the population dies every year due to smoking. I have yet to see the massive safety efforts.
    - Vrixam 6y ago
      Only a fraction of those 1 100 000 individuals were infected until now.Estimates based on antibody tests hover around 3% infected.
      - tinus_hn 6y ago
        In the Netherlands the estimates are actually about 10% so if you really stretch it you end up with 0.1% hospitalized, which still is not near your 0.5%
mikem170 6y ago
>We can eradicate like New Zealand did. Respectfully, I do not agree. New Zealand went on lockdown March 23 when they jumped overnight from 66 to 102 confirmed cases. They have 1144 as of yesterday. There are now 1.3 million cases in the U.S., almost that many in Western Europe. There are not even enough tests to know the real number. Antibody tests are indicating that a couple tens of millions of people may have already been exposed. I know of no precedent for using quarantines to eradicating a disease that is already so widespread. There is no evidence that such a thing is possible. It would have been at some point in the past, when there were some hundreds of known cases, but not any more. What to do from this moment forward? Did you mean to imply that you thought we could stay locked down until this is eradicated? I wonder if there are models that can give us covid predictions based on continuing the existing lockdowns versus easing of lockdowns, with a vaccine in 12 months versus a vaccine in 4 years, and estimated economic and social costs of lockdowns. I don't think it's responsible to make these big decisions without objectively weighing all the data, and the data is fuzzy, refined over time. (Although I am pleased at how much data is publicly available.)
- wbl 6y ago
  It was possible. We didn't do it. Now we can mount a massive effort to stamp it out but were aren't. This isn't inrvitable.

by wbl 6y ago

tdfx 6y ago

As far as I've read, the number of healthy 30 year olds who went to the ICU and had organ damage is vanishingly small. Is there somewhere this is happening in any statistically significant way? There's a lot of ways a healthy 30 year can die yet only one particular way is getting any attention.

tinus_hn 6y ago

Healthy 30 year olds die from traffic accidents. Do you yearn for life in which all risk is avoided at all costs, and do you think it’s proper to force that on everyone else?

wbl 6y ago
If 0.5٪ of the population was dying in a car accident every year you can be sure there would be a massive safety effort.
- tinus_hn 6y ago
  0.5% of 30 year olds is not going to the hospital for Covid-19 by a long shot. In the Netherlands there are approximately 1.100.000 people between 30 and 34 years old (inclusive). Of those people 150 entered the hospital. That’s 0.01%. Most of these people are not dying (in fact only 3 of them did, which is 0.0003%) and while there isn’t a number of people with the chronic problems it definitely isn’t all of them. By the way slightly more than 0.1% of the population dies every year due to smoking. I have yet to see the massive safety efforts.
  - Vrixam 6y ago
    Only a fraction of those 1 100 000 individuals were infected until now.Estimates based on antibody tests hover around 3% infected.
    - tinus_hn 6y ago
      In the Netherlands the estimates are actually about 10% so if you really stretch it you end up with 0.1% hospitalized, which still is not near your 0.5%

mikem170 6y ago

>We can eradicate like New Zealand did. Respectfully, I do not agree. New Zealand went on lockdown March 23 when they jumped overnight from 66 to 102 confirmed cases. They have 1144 as of yesterday. There are now 1.3 million cases in the U.S., almost that many in Western Europe. There are not even enough tests to know the real number. Antibody tests are indicating that a couple tens of millions of people may have already been exposed. I know of no precedent for using quarantines to eradicating a disease that is already so widespread. There is no evidence that such a thing is possible. It would have been at some point in the past, when there were some hundreds of known cases, but not any more. What to do from this moment forward? Did you mean to imply that you thought we could stay locked down until this is eradicated? I wonder if there are models that can give us covid predictions based on continuing the existing lockdowns versus easing of lockdowns, with a vaccine in 12 months versus a vaccine in 4 years, and estimated economic and social costs of lockdowns. I don't think it's responsible to make these big decisions without objectively weighing all the data, and the data is fuzzy, refined over time. (Although I am pleased at how much data is publicly available.)

wbl 6y ago
It was possible. We didn't do it. Now we can mount a massive effort to stamp it out but were aren't. This isn't inrvitable.