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Thanks for the summary. This is a question that had piqued my curiosity. Based on past bubbles, I cynically assumed it was mostly delusion ("market can stay irr
by klenwell 6y ago
Thanks for the summary. This is a question that had piqued my curiosity. Based on past bubbles, I cynically assumed it was mostly delusion ("market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent").
Paul Krugman provided his own answer a few days ago in a Twitter thread:
Two lessons here. First, the Fed saved the world economy from total disaster (again). Second, the stock rebound is not a sign that everything will soon be OK. It's not telling us that the economy is great, but rather that investment opportunities other than stocks are lousy.
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1256208478282158085 https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1256208478282158085
This echoes @magicsmoke's explanation at the top of this thread and helped change my mind a bit. Like you, I still expect a bloodbath eventually.
Among this article's explanation, #1-3 sound like folly to me. And I'm guessing 4 & 5 can only go so far when 1/3 of the economy is out of order. It feels like a massive (long and slow) hurricane has just made landfall and there's still too much rain and wind to see how much damage has actually been done yet. But investors seem to want to pretend when the storm clears, the economy will somehow still be standing there unscathed and everyone will be able to just head back to work.