3 ms·

Actually, I hope more than one succeeds. This will make meeting demand easier. About converting, I'm not sure. Some procedures, like Moderna's or Inovio's, wil

Actually, I hope more than one succeeds. This will make meeting demand easier. About converting, I'm not sure. Some procedures, like Moderna's or Inovio's, will likely need totally different manufacturing processes. I don't know about Oxford's (which uses an adeno-associated virus). It looks like a non-trivial effort to do. Rather than converting, most of the companies involved are ramping up manufacturing at-risk during the trials and some, like Vaccitech / Jenner Institute, are actively seeking partnerships to increase manufacturing capacity already.

tpmx 6y ago
I got this reply on reddit (on a specific question on scaling up the manufacturing of the Oxford vaccine): Oxford is making an "adenovirus vector vaccine" Effectively they are using a adenovirus with some DNA inside it that will make the spike protein of the coronavirus which the immune system will then attack. No eggs involved. The egg-based vaccines we have work by taking a human virus, letting it evolve in chicken embryos until it is more adapted to chickens and poorly adapted to humans, and then using that weakened virus as the starting point to make a vaccine. Interesting overview of covid-vaccines here https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/23/a-close-look-at-the-frontrunning-coronavirus-vaccines-as-of-april-23 https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/23/a-... ... But I guess my question remains: Can we scale up the manufacturing, packaging and distribution using existing (private) infra, or do we need do build this stuff from scratch?
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  Totally from scratch probably not, but it will likely require adjustments to the infrastructure (some very significant). That's why all the players are going at-risk and starting this process now.
  - tpmx 6y ago
    Do you feel this effort is progressing at a scale where we can have something for 60% of the global population (now 7.8B) within a year? (Edit: Yeah, now that I review this, I realize it's impossible for you to answer. I wish there would be more transparancy in in things like these.)
    - lbeltrame 6y ago
      Most of the manufacturers don't disclose their projected capacity, as far as I've looked. We're likely getting tens or at best (truly best estimate) hundreds of millions of doses with full capacity. That's why I'm hoping for multiple vaccines to succeed. Like that there will be a faster distribution to the population. Whether we'll get there or not, we'll have to see. The immune system can act worse than the most spoiled of children.

tpmx 6y ago

I got this reply on reddit (on a specific question on scaling up the manufacturing of the Oxford vaccine): Oxford is making an "adenovirus vector vaccine" Effectively they are using a adenovirus with some DNA inside it that will make the spike protein of the coronavirus which the immune system will then attack. No eggs involved. The egg-based vaccines we have work by taking a human virus, letting it evolve in chicken embryos until it is more adapted to chickens and poorly adapted to humans, and then using that weakened virus as the starting point to make a vaccine. Interesting overview of covid-vaccines here https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/23/a-close-look-at-the-frontrunning-coronavirus-vaccines-as-of-april-23 https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/23/a-... ... But I guess my question remains: Can we scale up the manufacturing, packaging and distribution using existing (private) infra, or do we need do build this stuff from scratch?

lbeltrame 6y ago
Totally from scratch probably not, but it will likely require adjustments to the infrastructure (some very significant). That's why all the players are going at-risk and starting this process now.
- tpmx 6y ago
  Do you feel this effort is progressing at a scale where we can have something for 60% of the global population (now 7.8B) within a year? (Edit: Yeah, now that I review this, I realize it's impossible for you to answer. I wish there would be more transparancy in in things like these.)
  - lbeltrame 6y ago
    Most of the manufacturers don't disclose their projected capacity, as far as I've looked. We're likely getting tens or at best (truly best estimate) hundreds of millions of doses with full capacity. That's why I'm hoping for multiple vaccines to succeed. Like that there will be a faster distribution to the population. Whether we'll get there or not, we'll have to see. The immune system can act worse than the most spoiled of children.